The penalty for ignoring ObamaCare's individual mandate will be lifted.
It's time to see how well I did with my predictions for 2013 and to offer a set of 2014 forecasts.
I got 10 predictions for this year right. President Obama's job approval rating did drop—from 53% at year's start to 40% this week. There was a new administration scandal, the most significant being the IRS targeting of conservative groups. And ObamaCare's implementation was indeed "ragged and ugly" and "a continuing political advantage to Republicans" as forecast.
There was no grand budget bargain with entitlement reform. Venezuela's Hugo Chávez did die. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won handily and the Virginia gubernatorial race was closer (2.6%) than many experts predicted. House Judiciary Committee Republicans are working on immigration reform while the comprehensive Senate bill backed by Mr. Obama is stalled. Hillary Clinton is now the front-runner in 2016 polls while the Obama girls got a new puppy.
Four predictions were wrong: unemployment hit 7% instead of 8%; Syria's Bashar Assad remains in power; Fidel Castro is still alive and President and Mrs. George W. Bush got a granddaughter, not a grandson. In one instance, the results were half-right. The debt ceiling was raised, but Mr. Obama wasn't forced to make spending cuts in return.
So what does my crystal ball say for 2014? Mr. Obama's Gallup disapproval rating will end higher than this week's 53%. Republicans will keep the House with a modest pickup of 4-6 seats. The GOP will most likely end up with 50 or 51 Senate seats (in the former case, keeping Vice President Joe Biden fully occupied for two years presiding over the chamber). Control of the Senate may not be decided until December's Louisiana runoff. Propelled by union contributions, Democrats will outspend Republicans overall in House and Senate races.
Republicans will lose a net of one or two of their 30 governorships. They'll add to their numbers in statewide offices and state legislatures and see more Latino, Asian-American, African-American and women Republicans elected up and down the ballot.
Every Republican senator and virtually every representative challenged in a primary as insufficiently conservative will win. In reaction to ObamaCare, GOP political divisions are giving way to unity. Tens of millions more Americans will lose their coverage and find that new ObamaCare plans have higher premiums, larger deductibles and fewer doctors. Enrollment numbers will be smaller than projected and budget outlays will be higher. The White House will blame insurers and Republicans for the law's continuing failures.
Via: Karl Rove
Continue Reading....
I got 10 predictions for this year right. President Obama's job approval rating did drop—from 53% at year's start to 40% this week. There was a new administration scandal, the most significant being the IRS targeting of conservative groups. And ObamaCare's implementation was indeed "ragged and ugly" and "a continuing political advantage to Republicans" as forecast.
There was no grand budget bargain with entitlement reform. Venezuela's Hugo Chávez did die. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won handily and the Virginia gubernatorial race was closer (2.6%) than many experts predicted. House Judiciary Committee Republicans are working on immigration reform while the comprehensive Senate bill backed by Mr. Obama is stalled. Hillary Clinton is now the front-runner in 2016 polls while the Obama girls got a new puppy.
Four predictions were wrong: unemployment hit 7% instead of 8%; Syria's Bashar Assad remains in power; Fidel Castro is still alive and President and Mrs. George W. Bush got a granddaughter, not a grandson. In one instance, the results were half-right. The debt ceiling was raised, but Mr. Obama wasn't forced to make spending cuts in return.
So what does my crystal ball say for 2014? Mr. Obama's Gallup disapproval rating will end higher than this week's 53%. Republicans will keep the House with a modest pickup of 4-6 seats. The GOP will most likely end up with 50 or 51 Senate seats (in the former case, keeping Vice President Joe Biden fully occupied for two years presiding over the chamber). Control of the Senate may not be decided until December's Louisiana runoff. Propelled by union contributions, Democrats will outspend Republicans overall in House and Senate races.
Republicans will lose a net of one or two of their 30 governorships. They'll add to their numbers in statewide offices and state legislatures and see more Latino, Asian-American, African-American and women Republicans elected up and down the ballot.
Every Republican senator and virtually every representative challenged in a primary as insufficiently conservative will win. In reaction to ObamaCare, GOP political divisions are giving way to unity. Tens of millions more Americans will lose their coverage and find that new ObamaCare plans have higher premiums, larger deductibles and fewer doctors. Enrollment numbers will be smaller than projected and budget outlays will be higher. The White House will blame insurers and Republicans for the law's continuing failures.
Via: Karl Rove
Continue Reading....
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