Romney, GOP suddenly plunging onto Democratic turf

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Mitt Romney is suddenly plunging into traditionally Democratic-leaning Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and his GOP allies are trying to put Michigan into play. It's forcing President Barack Obama to defend his own turf - he's pouring money into television ads in the states and dispatching top backers - in the campaign's final week.

The question is: Why this Republican move?

GOP efforts in the trio of Rust Belt states could indicate that Romney is desperately searching for a last-minute path to the needed 270 Electoral College votes - without all-important Ohio. Or just the opposite, that he's so confident in the most competitive battlegrounds that he's pressing for insurance against Obama in what's expected to be a close race.

Or perhaps the Republican simply has money to burn. Use it now or never.

(AP) President Barack Obama gestures while speaking during the his visit to the Disaster Operation... Full Image

Former President Bill Clinton was dispatched in response on Tuesday. "Barack Obama's policies work better," he declared on the University of Minnesota campus, one of his two stops in a state that offers 10 electoral votes and hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972.

This late-game expansion of a campaign playing field that, until now, had focused on just nine states was taking place exactly a week from Election Day. At the same time, Obama spent a second day in Washington to focus on his presidential duties and Romney edged back into active campaigning in the aftermath of superstorm Sandy.

"This is a tough time for millions of people ... but America is tougher," the president said during a brief visit to the American Red Cross, where he sought to reassure victims, encourage aid workers - and warn of more storm damage to come with rising floodwater.

In Ohio, Romney, too, spoke of concern for storm victims, telling supporters who were collecting supplies that "a lot of people hurting this morning."

Beyond the candidates' pause from feverish campaigning, the impact of the storm on the election wasn't all that clear.

(AP) Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds bags of food as he... Full Image

National polls show an even race for the popular vote, though Obama appears to have both an edge in key battleground states in the electoral vote hunt and more state-by-state pathways to reach the 270-vote threshold.

Of the nine states where the two men have spent more than $1 billion in advertising since June, Romney is in the strongest position in North Carolina. But public and internal campaign polls show he's locked in stubbornly tight battles in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia and is fighting to overtake Obama's advantage in crucial Ohio as well as Iowa and Wisconsin.

That said, Romney still could win. Anything can happen in the race's closing days - including Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania or Michigan going Republican.

Via: MyWay

Continue Reading...

Obama Campaign Says Polls Showing Romney Surging Is A “Bluff”…

DENVER - Obama campaign senior adviser David Plouffe sought to knock down claims by the Romney camp that they are gaining momentum and steaming toward victory on Wednesday. Plouffe called those claims "more bluff than reality" and contended that the Romney camp is "overstating their Electoral College situation."

"We think we maintain a lot more plausible pathways to 270 than Governor Romney, who we think essentially has to pull an inside straight in terms of the Electoral College," Plouffe said during a bus ride through Iowa, noting that the President is leading or essentially tied in polls of most battleground states. "Governor Romney's campaign likes to talk about how well they're doing in North Carolina, but we think we're doing a lot better in Ohio and Iowa and Nevada than they're doing in North Carolina."

Plouffe argued that the Obama campaign is "already sitting at a win number" in some of the battleground states, though he declined to say which ones. "I'm not going to call states, but we'd win the election if it were held today,"  he said. Obama campaign officials have sought to downplay the significance of Romney's rise in the polls following his strong performance in the first of three presidential debates.

Today, Plouffe argued that the bump Romney received was a natural and inevitable tightening in a race that widened artificially in September. "Governor Romney was not going to get 44 or 45 percent in battleground states," he said. "He's a major party nominee in a divided country in a tough economy. He's going to get 47, 48, 49 in a bunch of these states. So that's all that's happened is Governor Romney picked up some of what he lost. We don't consider that momentum."

Via: CBS News

Continue Reading...

[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study

The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned. 

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president. 

CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, who spoke with Campus Reform at length on Tuesday, said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.

Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.

“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.

That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000. 

Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election. 

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” he said. 

Berry also acknowledged that while his poll is accurate, however, that his model does not “calculate a specific confidence level for the Electoral College result.”

The study, conducted every four years, is non-political and employs historical data as well as current unemployment numbers and income levels.

In the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, a recent poll reveals that a majority of voters believe the health of the economy is the most important issue of this election.

Additionally, more than double of the respondents in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll trust Romney over Obama to fix the economic state of our country (63%-29%).

Along with the economy, unemployment adds an element which only increases the probability of the CU prediction. 

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. 

Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder adds, “the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

The Colorado model has had such accuracy over the years, these results have received no criticism from academic peers, according to Berry.

Via: Campus Reform

Continue Reading...