Pollsters dumbfounded by Trump

Polling experts agree on one thing when it comes to Donald Trump’s presidential run: They’ve never seen anything like it.

The businessman’s dominance of the Republican presidential race is forcing experienced political hands to question whether everything they know about winning the White House is wrong.

The shocks have come in quick succession, with the businessman first rocketing to the top of national polls, and then taking double-digit leads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In another act of political magic, Trump managed to flip his favorability rating from negative to positive in one poll during the span of a month — a feat that Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray called “astounding.”

“That defies any rule in presidential politics that I’ve ever seen,” Murray, the director Monmouth’s Polling Institute, told The Hill.

Trump’s favorability rose from 20 percent to 52 percent among Republican voters between July and August, Monmouth found.

While a later CNN/ORC poll did not find a similar shift in Trump’s favorability, the Monmouth data was yet another sign that he is a candidate to be reckoned with.

“Throw out the rulebook when it comes to Trump, that’s not even in the parameters of what we see as unusual,” Murray said.

Trump’s dominance of the race has flustered the Republican field, with many of the candidates trying their best to bring him back to earth.

But as the attacks on Trump have intensified, so has his level of support.

Polls released Tuesday show Trump lapping the field in New Hampshire, where he leads his nearest Republican rival by 24 percentage points. The story is the same in South Carolina, where the latest poll gave him a 15-point edge.

While political scientists and other experts continue to insist Trump will not win the Republican nomination, he’s converted at least one high-profile skeptic.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz had dismissed Trump from the start, and declared after the first presidential debate that his campaign was doomed.

But after convening a focus group Monday evening where Trump supporters showed an unflappable allegiance, Luntz changed his tune.

“This is real. I’m having trouble processing,” he said, according to Time.

“I want to put the Republican leadership behind this mirror and let them see. They need to wake up. They don’t realize how the grassroots have abandoned them,” he added.

Polling experts, including Marist’s Lee Miringoff, say Trump is weathering political storms that would doom other candidates because his appeal is more about attitude than ideology.

While many of Trump’s supporters identify as strong conservatives, some of the policies he’s proposed — including increased spending on the border and higher taxes on the wealthy — have prompted accusations from rivals like former Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush that he isn’t a true conservative.

Miringoff said doesn’t expect those attacks to stick.

“This is the next step of the Tea Party — someone who can tap into the sentiment that people have about all the frustration and turn it into ‘We are going to make America great again,’ ” he said. 

“This is not a policy paper.”

But even if Trump is rewriting the political playbook, can he go the distance?

Via: The Hill

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Trump Change Trump Change: Voters Rate His Chances

Friday, August 21, 2015

Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has captured the public’s attention for better or worse, and his bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, once seen as a pipe dream, is now a topic of serious discussion. So for the near future at least, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 27% who felt a Trump nomination was likely two months ago when he formally announced his presidential bid, a finding that included just nine percent (9%) who said it was Very Likely.

At that time, Trump ran near the bottom among the 12 declared GOP candidates. Now he leads the pack of Republican hopefuls which has grown to include 17 prominent contenders.

Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 23% and seven percent (7%) respectively in the earlier survey. Forty-eight percent (48%) now say Trump is not likely to win the nomination, with 21% who feel it is Not At All Likely.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Republican voters say Trump is unlikely to be their party’s standard-bearer next year, but that includes just 15% who say it’s Not At All Likely. That’s down from 29% who said a Trump nomination was Not At All Likely two months ago. (To see survey question wording,click here.)

Trump’s support fell following the first GOP debate.

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs or spokesman Leon Sculti are available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail 

to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 19-20, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As each Republican presidential candidate formally announced, Rasmussen Reports asked voters how likely he or she was to ultimately be the nominee. Jeb Bush was the leader with 56% of likely GOP voters saying he was likely to win the nomination, including 16% who said it was Very Likely.  But we haven’t asked that question about Bush or any of the other GOP hopefuls in recent weeks.

[Here’s a look at how all the announced presidential candidates stacked up initially.]

Voters agree with Trump on the need to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. They also believe overwhelmingly that illegal immigrants convicted of a felony in this country should be deported. Trump made both proposals in a policy paper he released last weekend that calls for getting tough on illegal immigration.

Earlier this summer, Trump took a lot of criticism from Democrats and other Republican presidential hopefuls over his candid remarks about the criminality of many illegal immigrants, but most voters agree with Trump that illegal immigration increases serious crime in this country.

The reaction to his comments also increased media coverage of the murder of a young woman in San Francisco by an illegal immigrant from Mexico who said he came to that city because it does not enforce immigration laws. Most voters now want to get tough on so-called “sanctuary cities” that refuse to enforce these laws.

We noted in a commentary last month how the media spins the illegal immigration issue, comparing the coverage of Trump’s positions with those taken by leading Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.

In the face of increasing legal questions about the safety of secrets on the private e-mail server she used as secretary of State and of a vigorous intraparty challenge from Bernie Sanders, belief that Clinton is likely to be next year's Democratic presidential nominee has dropped noticeably over the past month.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Via: Rasmussen Reports

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Obama's approval rating falls in new poll

Over half of Americans have soured on President Obama’s overall presidency, a new poll says.

The new CNN/ORC sampling released on Friday said that 51 disapprove of Obama’s role in the Oval Office, compared to 47 percent approving.

It said that 52 percent believe Obama’s policies are leading the U.S. down the wrong path.

Obama’s ratings have fallen since last month, it added, when 49 percent approved of his presidential performance and 47 percent did not. 

Respondents rated Obama’s strategy for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) the most harshly, the CNN/ORC survey said.

It found that 62 percent of Americans believe the president is not properly countering the terrorist organization.

Nearly the same amount — 60 percent — also believe the U.S. is taking the wrong approach with Iran, it said.

Obama’s renewed push to close  the U.S.-run detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba also meets with majority opposition.

CNN/ORC’s sampling said that 53 percent believe the prison should remain open, while 44 percent think it deserves closure once its prisoners are transferred elsewhere.

Obama fared better among respondents on the issue of climate change, with 47 approving of his handling of the issue, a boost of six points since May.

Americans are frustrated with both political parties overall. Republicans received higher disapproval ratings of 54 percent. In addition, 55 percent said their policies are wrong for the nation. Democrats, meanwhile, received 47 percent approval versus 48 percent disapproval.

CNN/ORC conducted its latest survey by telephone Aug.13-16 nationwide. It sampled 1,001 adults with a 3 percent margin of error. 

Via: The Hill

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DONALD TRUMP TAKES BIG DROP IN LATEST NATIONAL POLL, FIORINA SURGE IS FOR REAL

Rasmussen has come out with a new national poll that shows The Donald, while keeping the lead, dropping almost 10 points down to 17% among likely Republican voters. The Fiorina surge appears to be for real as she has jumped from nearly nothing to 9%, tied with Walker for 3rd who took a 5 point tumble.  Rubio gained 5 points to put him in 2nd place with Jeb.

Cruz didn’t gain or lose, but is now behind Fiorina:

Here’s the info about the poll:

The national telephone survey of 651 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 9-10, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Via: The Right Scoop

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Trump Up, Bush and Walker Down in First Big Post-Debate Poll

If you thought Donald Trump’s boisterous debate performance and subsequent comments about Fox News’ Megyn Kelly might hurt his standing in the polls, you might be very wrong.

In the first major poll to be released since Thursday night’s debate, NBC News and Survey Monkey found Trump holding onto his first place position with 23% of the hypothetical vote. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, who were each at 10% in the same survey a week earlier, both dropped three points to 7% each, tied for a disappointing fifth place.

Ted Cruz saw the biggest post-debate bump, up seven points to 13%, putting him second to Trump.Carly Fiorina saw a six point bump to reach 8%, her highest position in any national poll to date.

Ben Carson came in third place with 11% in NBC’s poll, while Marco Rubio was tied for fourth place with Fiorina at 8%. However, a margin of error at 3.4% helps put these shifts in a bit more perspective.

Fiorina was deemed the winner of debate night despite not appearing on the primetime stage, with 22% of respondents saying she did the best job. And while Trump came in second place in that contest with 18%, he also topped the list of candidates who did the worst job with 29%.

Given the surprising results, some are questioning the poll’s methodology. Unlike most major national polls, this one was conducted entirely online, using a national sample of 3,551 adults aged 18 and over who were “selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day.” NBC’s Chuck Todd has responded to those on Twitter who are hesitant to believe the results:

Via: Mediaite

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Kasich makes quick rise in polls

It could have been embarrassing: The sitting governor of Ohio left off the primetime Fox News debate stage in his home state because of low poll numbers.

But in the two weeks since he launched his presidential campaign, John Kasich has bypassed New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and other Republicans who have been in the race longer.

Last week, the main super-PAC backing Kasich’s candidacy announced it raised more than $11 million, tapping into a surprisingly deep well of influential Ohioans for a haul that puts him squarely in the middle of a well-funded pack of GOP candidates.

“Someone in that campaign knows what they’re doing,” said Tom Rath, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire, where Kasich has leaped into third place, according to one recent poll.

And Kasich’s late entrance — he was the 16th Republican to launch a presidential bid — appears to have been perfectly timed to give him a boost in the polls nationally, potentially propelling him onto Fox News’s primetime debate stage this week. 

“The timing was good,” said Doug Heye, the former communications director for the Republican National Committee. “But don’t forget, this is a guy who has had a national presence for a while now, first in Congress, and then as the host of a Fox News show. He’s got that base of people who already knew him from being cabled into people’s homes and many of them just needed a reminder.”

If Kasich can ride the momentum he has onto the debate stage this week, it will be a big early victory for his campaign. Fox News is capping the number of candidates at 10 based on national polling numbers. 

Right now, Kasich is alone in ninth place with 3.5 percent support, according to RealClearPolitics average of polls, more than double the support he had at the beginning of July. Kasich leads Christie and Perry, his two closest challengers for the final spots on the debate stage.

A Quinnipiac University survey released last week shows Kasich in even better shape, taking 5 percent support and sharing eighth place with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). In the same poll from May, Kasich was tied for 10th place with only 2 percent support.

It’s the second national poll to be released since Kasich officially launched his bid for the White House that shows him making gains. A CNN/ORC poll that went into the field the day after Kasich’s announcement also registered an uptick in support, from 2 percent to 4 percent, putting him in an eighth-place tie with Christie and Ben Carson. 

Via: The Hill

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Big Trouble for 'Inevitable' Hillary in New Poll ...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY, JULY 22, 2015 -  Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is behind or on the wrong side of a too-close-to-call result in matchups with three leading Republican contenders, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Perhaps the biggest loser, however, is Donald Trump, who has negative favorability ratings of almost 2-1 in each state, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.

In several matchups in Iowa and Colorado, another Democratic contender, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, runs as well as, or better than Clinton against Rubio, Bush and Walker. Vice President Joseph Biden does not do as well.

Clinton gets markedly negative favorability ratings in each state, 35 - 56 percent in Colorado, 33 - 56 percent in Iowa and 41 - 50 percent in Virginia.

....

"Hillary Clinton's numbers have dropped among voters in the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. She has lost ground in the horserace and on key questions about her honesty and leadership," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "On being a strong leader, a key metric in presidential campaigns, she has dropped four to 10 points depending on the state and she is barely above 50 percent in each of the three states."

"Against three Republicans, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Secretary Clinton trails in six matchups and is on the down side of too-close-to call in three," Brown added. 

Via: Quinnipiac

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Why So Many People Regard Obama Positively

After studying public opinion for many years, I think I have a fairly good understanding of what shapes the typical American’s political views.  There is, however, one topic that has me flummoxed:  why so many Americans still hold rosy opinions about Barack Obama as the president and as a person.

Pollingreport.com posted the latest polls by about a dozen organizations plumbing Americans’ recent opinions about Obama’s job performance.  Most major poll results showed approval of his job performance averaged 45-46%.  Disapproval averaged two or three percentage points higher.  A CNN/ORC poll conducted June 26-28, however, showed his job approval at 50% while 47% disapproved.  The Gallup poll’s daily tracking report for July 14, 2015 showed Obama’s job performance rating at 46% approval vs. 49% disapproval.   (Approval of Obama’s job performance will probably increase following the deal with Iran.) 

The same organizations’ recent polls showed positive perceptions of Obama as a person frequently exceed 50%.  (His reputation for honesty dipped when it was revealed that he lied to sell Obamacare, but has since recovered.)

What’s difficult to understand about this is that when the same organizations plumb opinions about topics -- such as the country’s direction, perceptions of economic conditions, views of U.S. influence abroad, etc. -- that correlate robustly with presidential job approval, the results are usually abysmal, and ought negatively to affect dispositions about Obama.  (When George W. Bush was president, for example, abysmal opinions on these issues drove his job approval ratings into the gutter.)

This essay attempts to comprehend why, despite his policy failures at home and abroad, scandals, and lies, many Americans continue to approve of Obama’s job performance and regard him favorably as a person.  At least five major factors seem to play a part:  (1) Americans’ views of the presidency; (2) Obama’s racial make-up; (3) his party affiliation; (4) the mainstream media’s (MSM’s) bias on his behalf; and (5) Americans’ tendency to accord very low priority to politics.

No one can fully appreciate opinions about Obama unless he/she understands Americans’ perceptions of the presidential office.  Given the topic’s importance, it is not surprising that a large body of research (by scholars, journalists, politicians, and lay-persons) exists detailing the public’s views of the presidency.  One could easily get lost in the minutiae these studies have produced.

Via: American Thinker

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The potentially mortal threat to Hillary’s candidacy

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks during a house party hosted by Nancy Emanuel, a retired Nurse and former instructor at Indian Hills Community College in Ottumwa, and her husband, Dennis Emanuel, an attorney, Tuesday, July 7, 2015, in Ottumwa, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Pundits have focused recently on Hillary Clinton’s narrowing lead in polls among a group of less well known Republicans, along with voters' growing skepticism about her integrity. But a much more immediate threat to her electability is beginning to appear: in the last few weeks, Clinton has lost significant ground in both New Hampshire and Iowa to socialist Bernie Sanders.

The latest Suffolk University poll has Sanders within 10 percentage points of Clinton, at 41-31, among Democrats in New Hampshire. Clinton is only eight points ahead of Sanders, 43-35, in a WMUR/CNN poll

In Iowa, Clinton remains well in front, with 52% to Sanders’s 33%--but she has slipped 26 points since May. And top Iowa Democrats have voiced skepticism about Clinton’s candidacy for months, as reported in the Wall Street Journalearlier this year.

Hillary Clinton finds herself with a real and credible threat in the primaries from Sanders, who spoke to 10,000 cheering supporters in Madison, Wisconsin last week—the biggest crowd that a candidate from either party has drawn.

“My heart wouldn’t be in it for Hillary to the extent that it might be if it was a different candidate,” said Jennifer Herrington, chair of the Page County Democrats. “There’s always the nagging feeling that her ship may have sailed,” said Tom Swartz, who heads the Marshall County Democrats, of Hillary. “Elizabeth Warren, I would enjoy going out to lunch with her. Hillary, less,” Lorraine Williams, chairwoman of the Washington County Democrats, commented.  

Via: Fox News

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Trump wins battle against Political Correctness

Political correctness is a very serious affliction that has done incredible damage to our country. It will eventually destroy America if it is not pulled up by the roots and finally eradicated

When Donald Trump announced for President, he made some strong statements about the immigration problems facing our nation. He said that Mexico was “bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people.” In essence, Trump noted that Mexico was not sending their scientists and scholars to America.

In his speech, he mentioned that while immigrants are taking jobs in this country; corporations like Ford are setting up plants in Mexico. To deal with the crisis, Trump vowed to build a border fence and have Mexico pay for it.

This kind of tough talk resonated with millions of Americans who have seen no action on illegal immigration for decades. In the latest New Hampshire, Iowa and national GOP polls, Trump has rocketed to second place. This shows that Americans are tired of the influx of illegal immigrants and the non-existent border security. They are tired of illegal aliens committing crimes, receiving federal benefits and taking jobs away from law abiding citizens.

It is an outrage that our borders are not secure. In fact, no other nation in the world has both wide open borders coupled with generous benefits for illegal aliens. Donald Trump wants this giveaway of American jobs and federal incentives to end. He wants to secure our border and improve our national security. These are goals that all Americans should applaud; however, in our politically correct society, such goals are too controversial.

In the aftermath of Trump’s comments, Macy’s dropped his clothing line; NBC “fired” him from the show “Celebrity Apprentice” and said they would not air the Miss USA or Miss Universe pageants. The illegal immigration comments were also too controversial for Univision, another leftist network which dropped the beauty pageants from their broadcast schedule. Fortunately, the Miss USA pageant was picked up by the Reelz channel, so Americans will still be able to watch a show with a 64-year broadcasting tradition.

Via: Canada Free Press

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Poll: Sen. Rob Portman Holds Lead In Competitive Ohio Senate Race

Republican Sen. Rob Portman holds a 10-point lead over his likely Democratic opponent, former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, according to a new Vox Populi Polling survey shared exclusively with The Daily Caller.

The Ohio Senate race is shaping up to be a competitive contest, with Democrats arguing Portman is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the 2016 cycle.

But according to the poll of 474 active voters taken on June 6 and 7, voters prefer Portman over Strickland 47 percent to 37 percent, with 16 percent unsure.

The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Portman, who has been vetted in recent presidential cycles as a possible Republican running mate, was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010. He is a former member of Congress, U.S. Trade representative and director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Strickland is a former congressman who served one term as governor of Ohio. In recent years, he has worked for the liberal Center for American Progress.

Via: Daily Caller

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For First Time in Years, More People Like George W. Bush than Dislike Him

If this poll indicates anything, the days of Americans vehemently disliking George W. Bush are over, replaced by the days of Americans going “eh” over him.

A CNN/ORD poll discovered that for the first time since leaving office, 52% of adults had a “favorable” impression of Bush the Younger, overtaking the 43% who didn’t. For comparison: when he left office in 2008, roughly a third of Americans had a favorable impression of him. (Staying quiet and painting quasi-Hockney-esque portraits apparently makes one popular.)

In contrast, Obama currently has a 45% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating, which is befitting for a lame duck president slogging through the last year-and-a-half of his administration.

According to CNN, the percentage of Americans who dislike him come from the demographic that already disliked him during his administration, but gained significant ground in other groups:

As of a year ago, 46% had a favorable take on the former president, 51% an unfavorable one. Since then, Bush has gained in esteem among men (up 11 points), Republicans (up 10 points), those with household incomes under $50,000 (up 10 points), younger adults (up 9 points among those under age 50) and suburbanites (up 8 points).

Bush remains broadly unpopular among groups that made up his main opponents during his time in office: Democrats (70% unfavorable), liberals (68% unfavorable) non-whites (54% unfavorable), and those under age 35 (53% unfavorable).

CNN attributes this to the naturally-occurring Warm and Fuzzies Americans often feel about former presidents, which increases the longer they’ve been out of office. (See: Jimmy Carter.)

Via: Mediaite

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Poll: One In Four Americans Satisfied With Direction Of The Country

Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. has dropped 6 points since the beginning of the year, with government, the economy and unemployment cited as the top problems facing the nation.

Satisfaction with how things are going in the country hit a two-year high in January at 32 percent but has gradually dropped since then to 26 percent, Gallup said.

Fourteen percent of Americans rated dissatisfaction with government the most important problem facing the country today, followed by the economy in general at 12 percent and unemployment at 10 percent.

Race relations (8 percent); immigration (6 percent); a decline in moral, religious and family ethics (6 percent); health care (5 percent); and terrorism (5 percent) were also frequently cited problems facing the country.

“After years of dysfunctional government, the economy and unemployment dominating Americans’ mentions of the top problem facing the nation, fewer mention these problems now than in recent years,” Gallup’s Justin McCarthy wrote. “Still, these three problems remain at the forefront of Americans’ concerns and may be driving Americans’ high level of dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction.”

The survey of 1,024 adults was conducted May 6-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Via: Washington Times

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ObamaCare approval drops to record low

Support for the Affordable Care Act has dropped five percentage points in a month to a record low, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Monday.

The poll finds that just 35 percent of the public supports the law, compared to 40 percent in late November.

The drop in support indicated in the poll could be particularly troubling to the Obama administration because almost all of it came from women, whose opposition rose from 54 percent to 60 percent in a month. The administration has tried to highlight advantages for women, such as free preventative care that covers mammograms.

Some of those who oppose the law, 15 percent of all respondents, continue to do so because they think it is not liberal enough. That means half of the public either supports the law or thinks it is not liberal enough.

Just 16 percent said they think their family will be better off when most of the law takes effect next year, a number essentially unchanged from earlier in the year.

Some Republicans have targeted the pledge to be able to keep one's doctor as the next assurance to be proven wrong. Still, 61 percent said they believed they could keep the same doctor.

The story is different when it comes to cost though, with 63 percent saying they believe their healthcare costs will rise under the law.

Via: The Hill

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