Eight states hold key to White House

Sorry, Florida. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney may be ardently courting America's biggest battleground state, but their real passion is for Ohio. Because as un-American as it sounds, all votes are not created equal in a presidential election. Don't be offended. With barely two weeks before Nov. 6, it's all about the electoral math. And as uncertain and unpredictable as the campaign looks heading into the final stretch, Ohio remains President Obama's best opportunity to block a Romney win — and Romney's biggest hurdle.

That's why in the past week, four of the top 10 TV markets for campaign ads were in Ohio, and only one was in Florida (Orlando), according to NBC. That's why, since September, Romney and Paul Ryan have done 34 Ohio campaign events and 20 Florida events, while Obama and Joe Biden have done 11 campaign events in Florida and 18 in Ohio.

"If you take Ohio off the board for the Romney campaign they basically have to win seven of the remaining eight battleground states," said Robert Gibbs, a senior Obama campaign adviser.

A president is not elected by the popular vote, but by the electoral votes of each state, and most states are so solidly Democratic or Republican that modern presidential campaigns are waged in eight to 12 states that can swing to one side or another. A resident of deep-red Utah, say, or deep-blue New York, won't see any campaign activity except for fundraising because the candidates need not worry about carrying them.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Based on polling and political trends Obama has 191 electoral votes solidly in his corner and Romney 169. Throw in the states that are leaning toward Obama or Romney, and it brings Obama to 237 electoral votes and Romney to 206.

Still up for grabs are eight states with a combined 95 electoral votes: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.

With the right combination, either candidate can win.

Obama's paths

For all the ups and downs of the 2012 campaign, the map has remained remarkably static through much of the past year. North Carolina, which Obama barely won in 2008, now appears to be leaning Romney, but overall the map still offers Obama more plausible paths to victory.

The president's campaign long ago spelled out four basic routes to a second term, and there also are multiple combinations of those paths. Assume he wins the same states John Kerry won in 2004, a total of 246 electoral votes.

• The Western path gives Obama New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, and brings him to 272 electoral votes.

• The Southern path, looking less likely based on recent North Carolina polling, gets him to 274 with wins in Virginia and North Carolina.

• The Midwest path involves winning Ohio and Iowa, giving Obama 270 votes.

• The simplest of all paths is through Florida. Win the Sunshine State's 29 electoral votes and Obama is re-elected with 275 electoral votes.

Via: Tampa Bay Times

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Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead

9:06PM EDT October 15. 2012 - WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.
MORE: Follow who's up and who's down in the polls

The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.

That makes women, especially blue-collar "waitress moms" whose families have been hard-hit by the nation's economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012's close race.

Via: USA Today

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DESPITE MEDIA HYPE, NO BOUNCE FOR OBAMA IN SWING STATES

Politico’s “Unnamed Sources” say Ohio is lost for Mitt Romney. Like hell it is. They say Obama got a serious bounce from the DNC. Like hell he did.

Whatever bounce Obama got was in the blue states. In the swing states, it’s still way too close to call. Today’s Rasmussen poll results show that in the eleven swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, which total 145 electoral votes, it’s Obama 46% and Romney 45%. In 2008, Obama won these states 53% to 46%.

So how does the MSM try to spin the evidence so Obama looks like he’s unbeatable? Let’s look at Ohio, for example. Politico reported (using uncredited sources, of course), that Ohio is lost for Romney:

“Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now.”

I didn’t know Axelrod and Plouffe were working for Romney, but hey, they’ll go where the money is.

But, as usual, Politico was relying on Obama-leaning polls to support their narrative; yesterday the PPP poll (which is always weighted toward Obama because of PPP’s affiliation with the SEIU) showed Obama up by five in Ohio.  Hmmm. According to the Gravis marketing poll taken last Tuesday, Romney was up three in Ohio. Who’s telling the truth?

Consider these:

Example #1.  On August 14, the PPP poll showed Obama up three in Ohio, while the same day Rasmussen Reports showed Romney and Obama tied.

Example #2: Last Monday PPP showed Obama tied with Romney in North Carolina, while the Elon University/Charlotte Observer poll, a local state poll, showed Romney up by four.

But Politico won’t be denied their mission to say whatever they can to disillusion Romney’s base, and they make no bones about using uncredited sources; as Politico reporter Jonathan Martin said last month when Politico quoted unnamed sources in a story about Republicans unhappy about the selection of Paul Ryan (what?????):

We were candid about the sourcing on that, as you mentioned, Howie, and basically say to our readers, ‘Look, folks don’t want to put their names [on] the charges. If you don’t want to read Politico, that’s fine.’

Every race in the swing states is close right now, and the unconscionable skewing of the polls by the MSM shouldn’t discourage Republicans. The MSM has lied before, they are lying now, and they will lie in the future. The Obama campaign has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Romney, they have the power of incumbency, and Romney simply is not going away. And all of this is before Romney has even attacked Obama in ads and the debates.

Hey, Dems, this show ain’t even close to over; we’re just getting warmed up.

Via: Breitbart

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Poll: Romney Up In Swing States

Swing State Statistics

Mitt Romney has posted gains in the 12 swing states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a Purple Insights poll released Wednesday.

The new poll shows Romney with small leads in three of the biggest swing states on the map  — Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Those three states have a total of 60 electoral votes.

The poll was taken after Romney picked Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate. 

“Taken as a whole, these data indicate a small bump in the immediate aftermath of the [Paul] Ryan [vice presidential] announcement,” the report from Purple Insights said. “Nonetheless it is also the first sign of positive momentum for the Romney campaign that we’ve seen in the Purple Poll in the last few months.”

Obama won Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin in his 2008 bid for the White House, and will need to win about half of these in 2012 to secure reelection.



Via: The Hill

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