Tropical Storm Erika Soaks Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands; Warnings in the Dominican Republic, Bahamas; Uncertain Threat to Florida, Southeast U.S.

Highlights

• Tropical Storm Erika is located near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but is still very poorly organized.
• Tropical storm warnings continue in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos and have been extended into the central Bahamas and the south coast of the Dominican Republic.
• Deadly, destructive flooding has been reported in Dominica, in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Strong wind gusts were reported in St. Croix and St. Thomas.
• Erika will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to drought-suffering Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispanola.
• There is potential for Erika to dissipate as a tropical cyclone over the mountains of the Dominican Republic.
• Erika's future track and intensity late this weekend and beyond remains highly uncertain regarding potential U.S. impact, which could occur anywhere from the Florida peninsula to the Carolinas.

Current Status

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Erika Watches/Warnings

A watch means the respective conditions are possible within 48 hours. Warnings mean those conditions are expected within 36 hours.

 

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Current Wind Shear Analysis

Wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction with height, is harmful for tropical cyclones. Higher levels of wind shear are depicted in pink, purple and red contours in this analysis.

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Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands Radar

Erika Struggles, But Still Soaks the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Erika continues to struggle against a hostile environment in the Caribbean Sea, and faces an uphill climb to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone over the next 12-24 hours.

(MORE: Heart of the Hurricane Season is Here)

Satellite imagery continues to show Erika's convection (thunderstorms) displaced east of the center of circulation. 

The culprit for this disheveled appearance of Erika is strong westerly to southwesterly wind shear, which has been consistently very strong, compared to average, in the Caribbean Sea this hurricane season, so far.

If anything, Erika will be moving into an environment of higher wind shear over the next day or so.

That's not the only barrier Erika faces. The circulation is likely track over the mountains of the Dominican Republic (Pico Duarte is over 10,000 feet), potentially disrupting or ripping apart its circulation.

So these twin nemeses (wind shear, mountains of D.R./land interaction) may both spell the ultimate demise of Erika as a tropical cyclone.

But that doesn't mean there may not be serious impacts. Regardless of Erika's degree or organization, locally heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be threats the next several days.

A band of torrential rain resulted in deadly flash flooding on the island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Roads were washed out, homes were damaged and an airport flooded.

(MORE: Flooding Hits Dominica)

Canefield Airport near the capital of Roseau, Dominica, picked up 12.64 inches (322.4 millimeters) of rain in a 12-hour period ending just before 2 p.m. EDT Thursday.

Bands of locally heavy rain will spread from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispanola, to parts of Cuba and the Bahamas by Saturday.

Despite the long-term Caribbean drought, rain rates of several inches per hour could trigger flash flooding and mud/rockslides. Flood watches were posted for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. 

The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said some parts of the island had already picked up 3 to 4.5 inches of rainfall in Erika's rainbands as of early Friday morning.

(INTERACTIVE: Caribbean Radar)

Heavy rainfall over the mountains of Hispanola may also trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Historically, some of the highest death tolls with Caribbean tropical cyclones have occurred in these situations.

Tropical storm force winds were reported across portions the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday. The highest gust was 62 mph at St. Croix shortly before 9 p.m. EDT Thursday. St. Thomas registered a gust to 48 mph. The peak gust, so far, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has been only 32 mph as of early Friday morning.

Erika may continue to produce tropical storm force winds, mainly in gusts, primarily on the east and north sides of its 

Via: Weather Channel

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What was the weather like on July 4, 1776?

July 4, 1776
Independence Day

On July 4, 1776, the Declaration of Independence was signed signifying our independence from Great Britain. Thomas Jefferson drafted this historical document but he also kept weather logs. Here’s what he recorded for the first Independence Day, 239 years ago.

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Philadelphia Weather Conditions, July 4, 1776

6am: 68°  //  1pm: 76°  //  Warm and humid day*

*Keep in mind that heavy suits and wigs were the fashion of the time. There was not the luxury of air conditioning either.

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Here’s how Jefferson describes his ritual, “My method is to make two observations a day, the one as early as possible in the morning, the other from 3. to 4. aclock, because I have found 4. aclock the hottest and day light the coldest point of the 24. hours. I state them in an ivory pocket book in the following form, and copy them out once a week.”

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In the 1700’s, personal weather diaries allowed people to keep track of the weather. By the 1800’s the U.S. Weather Bureau was founded and became known as the National Weather Service during the 1900’s.

~ Meteorologist Candice Boling

Via: WNCT9

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Polar Vortex to Once Again Grip Midwest, Northeast

Last week's thaw was a mere tease for the Midwest and Northeast with the polar vortex set to make an encore performance this week.

The end of this weekend will coincide with the end of the mild stretch of weather across the Northeast that sent temperatures into the 60s northward to Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia and the 50s in New York City and Boston.

Highs on Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees colder throughout the Northeast and mid-Atlantic following the passage of a band of rain and nuisance snow on Sunday night.

Colder air has already erased the mild spell across the Midwest, and Sunday should prove to be one of the "warmest" days of this week.

@rleduc123 tweeted: "Polar Vortex 3 - The Saga Continues!"

Additional Relevant Tweets and Social Media Reaction

Waves of even colder air will pour down from the depths of the Arctic to the northern Rockies, Midwest and Northeast as this week progresses and the polar vortex plunges southward.

Each cold blast will dip into the southern Plains and South, leading to a brief drop in temperatures. However, the core of the polar vortex will have a firm grip on the northern tier of the U.S.

Via: AccuWeather.com

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[CARTOON] Climate vs Weather

Via: California Political Review

Dangerous Travel Along I-94 as Snowstorm Lashes Upper Midwest

A pair of storms is unleashing heavy snow and strong winds causing poor visibility from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Rockies.

Dangerous cold and treacherous travel conditions are also spreading across the region.

The worst of the snow is likely through Wednesday from eastern North and South Dakota to northern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin, part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and neighboring Canada. The worst of the cold following the storm will also focus over this area.

Northern Plains, Upper Midwest

Snowfall amounts of 6 to 22 inches fell in parts of northern Minnesota, including the Duluth, Minn., area on Monday into Monday night, and another 6 to 12 inches may accumulate through Wednesday from northern Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

By the time the storm exits on Wednesday, storm totals range from 1 to 3 feet over a large part of the Upper Midwest.

Via: AccuWeather.com

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Traveling This Thanksgiving? CHECK OUT: FOX EXTREME WEATHER CENTER

CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX EXTREME WEATHER CENTER !

 

Winter storm system heads east, could cause big delays for Thanksgiving travelers

Snow and ice are forecast for the northeast of the country as a deadly storm that started on the West Coast last week gathers steam Tuesday and powers toward the East in time for Thanksgiving.

The National Weather Service warned that the storm would almost certainly upset holiday travel plans for those hoping to visit loved ones in the mid-Atlantic and northeast.

"The timing of the storm couldn't be worse," said Chris Vaccaro, spokesman for the weather service headquarters in Silver Spring, Md. "We are seeing numerous threats as the storm is beginning to develop and intensify."

Vaccaro said heavy rain and high winds would impact travel by air and road in the northeast and mid-Atlantic, and that the weather in that part of the country could have a ripple effect on airports with departing and originating flights elsewhere.

On Tuesday and Wednesday morning, heavy rain and breezy conditions will strike the East Coast from the Carolinas to the northeast, with ice and snow a possibility in the Appalachians, western Pennsylvania and western New York.

The storm system, already blamed for at least 11 deaths, could also spawn an isolated tornado in the Florida Panhandle.

CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX EXTREME WEATHER CENTER!

Via: Fox News

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