TRR: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968

Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters has Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama by seven points, 52% to 45%. Mr. Romney’s total is greater than Richard Nixon’s 44% at this point in the race in 1968, Jimmy Carter’s 49% in 1976, Ronald Reagan’s hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%), George H. W. Bush’s 50% in 1988, and Bill Clinton’s 40% in 1992. In 2000 and 2008 George W. Bush and Barack Obama both tracked at a within-error 51%.

The Gallup numbers have come under criticism from Obama supporters for their supposed inaccuracy, but the oldest established polling organization has done well in predicting the last three elections. In 2000, the final Gallup likely voter poll showed a neck and neck race, 47/45, which turned out to be a 50/50 outcome. In 2004 Gallup had the Bush/Kerry race at 49/47 and the result was 50/48. And in 2008 Gallup's final likely voter poll had Mr. Obama at 53% which was right on the money. Whether Mr. Romney's tracking numbers will hold over the next few weeks remains to be seen but right now he is on a better trajectory than any presidential challenger in the last 40+ years.
Maybe the Justice Department will want to investigate.

Via: Washington Times

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Romney Outpolling Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II and Obama At Same Point In Their Victorious Election Bids…

According to the latest Gallup survey, Mitt Romney is polling 52% of likely voters. At this point in the race he is ahead of:

Where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 (47%)

Where Ronald Reagan was in 1980 (39% -- Carter was six points up)

Where George H.W. Bush was in 1988 (50%)

Where Bill Clinton was in 1992 (40%)

Where George W. Bush was in 2000 (48%)

Where Barack Obama was in 2008 (49%)

Via: Washington Times

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HURT: Obama the debater: Making Jimmy Carter look awesome

Bewildered and lost without his teleprompter, President Obama flailed all around the debate stage last night. He was stuttering, nervous and petulant. It was like he had been called in front of the principal after goofing around for four years and blowing off all his homework.

Not since Jimmy Carter faced Ronald Reagan has the U.S. presidency been so embarrassingly represented in public. Actually, that’s an insult to Jimmy Carter.

The split screen was most devastating. Mitt Romney spoke forthrightly, with carefully studied facts and details at the ready. He looked right at the president and accused him of being miles out of his depth.

Mr. Obama? His eyes were glued to his lectern, looking guilty and angry and impatient with all the vagaries of Democracy. This debate was seriously chaffing him.

What exactly was Mr. Obama’s strategy here? Did he figure with so many people unemployed in this abomination of an economy he should go for the sympathy vote? Like voters could relate to a guy who is just scared pantsless that he is about to lose his job?

In the middle of the blood-letting segment about jobs, Mr. Romney said good-naturedly: “This is fun.”

Almost pleading, Mr. Obama reached out to the moderator for a lifeline: “You may want to move onto another topic.”

When an unexpected noise went off behind him, Mr. Obama wheeled around to look as if to ask, “Time to go?”

Hopefully.

Turns out, it was the first honest thing we have heard from Mr. Obama’s campaign: The president really was absolutely terrible on the debate stage.

Via: Washington Times

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“Another Broken Promise, Mr. President?”

Right now, President Obama and Mitt Romney are looking for the one line that will stand out as the defining line of the debate, a line that encapsulates the candidate’s reason for running and all his frustrations with the other guy. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a solution for the nation’s problems. But it does have to immediately resonate with voters. 

In 1980, the quip that stood out was challenger Ronald Reagan’s dismissive, “There you go again...” to President Carter. Folks knew exactly what Reagan meant: that we had seen through Carter’s attempts to attack Reagan’s supposedly “radical tendencies” as a dodge to distract voters from Carter’s responsibility for an ever-weakening America.

This time around it’s a safe bet that President Obama will try out another quip to further characterize Romney as an out-of-touch millionaire. It’s much less clear what quip the Romney team is looking for. His campaign has suffered from lack of clarity all along. The debates would be the perfect moment to fix on one. And frankly, we think we have one, based on the president’s own record.

During the debate on Wednesday night, President Obama will undoubtedly be asked to defend his record. Mr. Romney will be asked to respond. When he does, Romney should wait a beat -- as Ronald Reagan knew how to do so well -- and ask: “Another broken promise, Mr. President?”

Most Americans need to be reminded of just how many promises this president has broken. When you truly believe the government can fix almost anything, you’re bound to promise much more than can be fulfilled. Thus, Romney has a rich field to plow. The only problem will be brevity, because there are so many examples. But allow me to mention a few, each one of which could be condensed and followed by the refrain: “Another broken promise, Mr. President?”

Via: Fox Business

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Weekly Standard: How to Make 2012 into 1980

When Republican strategists like Karl Rove cite 1980 as a model for this year’s election, they usually have in mind two main elements: Ronald Reagan’s question in the late October presidential debate about whether voters felt better off than four years earlier, when they elected Jimmy Carter, and Reagan’s ability in that debate to reassure swing voters about his ability to serve successfully if elected, converting a very close race into a ten-point blowout by “closing the deal.”
Reagan toasting 1981

The premise of most GOP analysts is that because of the bad economy, Carter was seen as presiding over a failed presidency, and that to throw him out four years after he had ousted the Republicans, all the voters needed was affirmation that Reagan was up to the challenge of turning the economy around. The application of this precedent to Mitt Romney’s race against Barack Obama is too obvious to need much elaboration: establish Romney as economically qualified and the election will be his.\

Via: Weekly Standard

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SHHH… OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING TANKS TO DANGEROUS NEW LEVEL

Shhh… Don’t tell the biased Obama media.

Obama’s approval rating sank to a dangerous new level this month. The president has an approval rating at 46 percent and a disapproval rating at 48 percent.
Business Insider reported:

Obama’s approval rating in Gallup’s rolling survey has plunged 6 percentage points in two weeks, a troubling sign that puts him on shaky historical ground for re-election.

Obama’s approval rating is down to just 46 percent, down from a high of 52 percent after the Democratic National Convention. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, now stands at 48 percent, up from 42 percent after the DNC. Altogether, that’s a 12-point swing in two weeks.

Recall why the 50 percent threshold is important, per Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

Don’t expect this to make any headlines.

Via: Human Events

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'THE HOPE AND THE CHANGE' MOVIE TO AIR ON BROADCAST, CABLE TV

"The Hope and the Change,” the movie about Democrats and independents who voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and will not do so in 2012, will air on a dozen television stations this fall leading up to the presidential election, Citizens United announced on Monday.  

Citizens United produced the film and has struck a deal to begin airing the movie on six broadcast stations and six cable stations beginning Tuesday on HDNet and through November’s presidential election. It will reach 130 million households and air on broadcast stations in Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and Colorado. The movie will air on cable channels such as FamilyNet, Rural TV, and HDNet movies. 

Sean Hannity said “The Hope and the Change” was the “most powerful documentary” he had “ever seen,” and the movie could only be produced because of the Supreme Court decision that did not place limits on political speech. 

“It is important to note that these distribution opportunities would have been against the law a mere three years ago. This is why I went to the United States Supreme Court – to fight for the right to produce a political documentary,” said Producer David N. Bossie. “’The Hope and The Change’ exposes the hard truth that many Democrats and independents are suffering at the hands of President Obama’s failed policies, and we will aggressively market this film so Americans can finally have an unfiltered conversation they deserve."

Stephen K. Bannon, who directed the film, said “the ability to reach 130 million American cumulative households with this historic deal is astonishing.”

“The power of the film comes from the collective unscripted and unrehearsed voices of the participants - ordinary Americans from every walk of life - who broke through the white noise of political speak,” Bannon said. 

Pat Caddell, the former Jimmy Carter adviser who helped conduct the film’s focus groups of Reagan Democrats from swing states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado, said “this documentary gives real voice to ordinary Americans, Democrats and independents, who are, until now, unheard and ignored by the political class and mainstream media.”

“The power of these 2008 Obama voters comes from the fact that they were unscripted and spoke from their hearts,” Caddell said. 

Via: Breitbart

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Memoirs of an American Family

During the summer of 1979, Jimmy Carter gave his famous Crisis of Confidence speech. In the now infamous narrative, Carter intended to set forth a new energy plan. Instead, the speech revealed his shaky confidence in the American ideal. Behind shallow praise of the “American People,” the former peanut farmer painted a picture of our nation with a pessimistic brush. America was facing a “crisis of spirit” and had lost confidence in her future. Needless to say, this message of “Malaise” did not resonate strongly with a generation of Americans who had been raised in a nation with confidence and patriotism in their hearts. During the 1980 election, Americans came to a fork in the road. They had a decision to make between the “malaise” of the Carter administration and the future promised by a retired actor named Ronald Reagan.

Like me, my father was on his way out of college during the 1980 election cycle. Although he did not trust Reagan because of his years in the liberal cesspool that is Hollywood, he was deathly afraid of Jimmy Carter’s policies and lack of experience in the political sphere. Just like in 1980, I believe our nation is standing on the precipice of economic destruction and political chaos in 2012. The future President Obama promises does not align with the principles of hard work, individual innovation, and entrepreneurship that built my past. While the American people will always keep the fires of the American Dream alive in our hearts, our government has steadily progressed away from individualism and small government. At this juncture in history, I find it enlightening to look into the past for answers, both my past and my father’s past.

I grew up learning the values of hard work, innovation, and compassion from my father. He embraced these lessons as a young man growing up in a small town in the Midwest before he imparted them to my siblings and me. My father was born smack dab in the middle of a family of 12 in the small town of Atchison, Kansas. My hometown is one where local, familial ties are important, and the Lutz family was a classic example of this practice. Early on, each of the 12 children learned to work hard and watch out for each other. My grandfather started a dealership and auto repair service with his brother in the 1950s after serving in the Korean War. He was a trusted businessman and always made sure to shop local and take care of his friends and neighbors. My father and his 11 siblings grew to appreciate the small town life, entrepreneurship, and family ties through their parents’ example.

When my father was 7 years old, tragedy struck our family as his father, my grandfather, passed away from a sudden heart attack. My grandmother never remarried and raised 12 children on her own. The entire family pulled together. According to my father, they had to “work as a team if they wanted to survive.” My father and my aunts and uncles didn’t know they were poor. For them, hard work was a part of life. The children made money in any way that they could. My father delivered papers when he was 12 and grew up doing odd jobs around town, including shining shoes and collecting bottles. The children were lucky enough to attend a private, Catholic school in town, but they had to work hard to pay the high tuition bills. During high school, my father would occasionally stop by the school office and drop off 5 or 10 dollars for his tuition payment. Eventually, he and his siblings paid for their own educations.

Via: Hot Air Green Room

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Romney copying Reagan's 1980 path to victory

TAMPA, Fla. - The Romney campaign has seized on Ronald Reagan's 1980 playbook, hoping to copy the Gipper's transformation during his GOP convention and subsequent debate with Jimmy Carter from a mocked B-tier Hollywood actor to a respected and winning presidential alternative.

Several Republicans including Romney's son Tagg said that Mitt Romney's path to the White House is a carbon copy of Reagan's, who was ridiculed by Carter and his team as they tried to divert attention to their hapless management of the economy.

Former Republican Party boss Haley Barbour said Carter accused Reagan of being a warmonger and loony conservative but when voters saw him perform well at the 1980 convention and debate, they thought, "Reagan doesn't look like a nut to me. He seems like a pretty nice guy."

That's the goal of Team Romney here--use family to show his softer side, highlight his charity and spell out in detail his plans for the presidency. "We don't have to hit it out of the park," said son Tagg Romney. Instead, he said, his father simply needs to show that he's not the ogre the Obama team is making him out to be.

Barbour suggested that Romney is on the verge of a big break out, based on polling numbers. He noted that when Romney became the presumptive nominee, the first Gallup Poll had him up by 2 percent. When Reagan became the presumptive nominee, he added, Gallup had him 14 points behind Carter and nine points behind at the beginning of the GOP convention.

Romney, however, is dead even with Obama.

But Democrats don't buy it and think Romney is moving too late to remake his image. Bill Burton, co-founder of the Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action, told Secrets, "Romney missed a critical opportunity to tell the American people his story this spring and summer. As a result of only attacking President Obama and not introducing himself, voters see Romney as the kind of guy who got rich by rigging the system and profiting from the losses experienced by hard-working middle class families."

And, he added, a softer performance in Tampa might not work. "He can fix that some during the convention but there has been a hardening of Romney's perceived indifference to the middle class that will be difficult to wash away," said Burton.

Via: Washington Examiner

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