New National Poll: Trump At All Time High with Ben Carson Catching Up Big

Here’s the breakdown from the poll of all candidates. Note that Jeb Bush has indeed fallen, just as Trump said in his press conference:

 

I’m glad to see Ted Cruz in third, tied with Jeb, but I do wish his numbers were higher. At least he has been consistent throughout the year, even adding 2 points from that last poll. Perhaps he will explode to the top at some point. There’s still a lot of time and many debates left.

As always, here’s the lowdown on the poll:

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 31 to September 2, 2015 with 1,009 adults in the United States. This release is based on a sample of 366 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. This voter sample has a margin of error of +5.1 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Via: The Right Scoop

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Poll: 23% of Americans View Boehner Favorably; 22% View McConnell Favorably

CNSNews.com) – A new Gallup poll on Congress and its leaders shows that only 23% of Americans view House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) favorably, and only 22% view his Senate counterpart, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) favorably.

Gallup further reports that Boehner’s ranking is similar to that of then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in October 2010, when only 26% of Americans viewed her favorably. Also, for then-Senate Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in October 2014, he was viewed favorably by only 21% of Americans.

When looking specifically at Republicans, Gallup found that only 37% had a favorable view of Boehner, and only 34% had a favorable view of McConnell.

Boehner has been the Speaker of the House of Representatives since January 2011. McConnell became the Senate Majority Leader in January of this year.

Via: CNS News

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POLL: MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPPOSE OBAMA’S TRADE AGREEMENT, HURTS AMERICAN WORKERS

A recent NBC News online survey shows a majority of Americans think President Obama’s trade agreement would harm American workers and companies.

“Two-thirds of Americans say protecting American industries and jobs by limiting imports is more important than allowing free trade so they can buy products at lower prices from any country,” reported NBC.

The survey found that this viewpoint was shared across political parties — with Republicans, Democrats and Independents all saying limiting inexpensive goods in order to protect U.S. jobs is more important than being able to purchase low-cost products.

Roughly four out of 10 people with college degrees believe “free trade is more important than limiting imports.”

Only one out of every four people with some college education, “and a third of those with high school degrees or less favor free trade over protecting American industries and jobs.”

The survey was conducted nationally using SurveyMonkey. It sampled 2,153 adults over the age of 18. There is a plus or minus 3 percent rate of error. The poll was held June 3rd through 5th.

Via: Breitbart

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IBD Poll: 65 Percent of Americans Oppose Bailing Out Insurers If Obamacare Can't Draw Enough Young Customers

The front page of Friday’s Investor’s Business Daily carried bad polling news for Obamacare. John Merline reported: “The public overwhelmingly opposes any ObamaCare bailout of the insurance industry, the latest IBD/TIPP Poll found, even as the Obama administration is paving the way to do just that.”

You might not see this poll elsewhere, but it found that 65 percent oppose a federal bailout of insurance companies if their profits take a hit because not enough young, healthy people sign up for ObamaCare plans.

Opposition is widespread, the poll of 907 adults found, with 51% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 76% of independents against it. It's opposed by every age and demographic group as well.

Although few people knew about it until recently, the health law contains a three-year "risk corridor program" designed to bail out insurers if costs were higher than anticipated from too few young people enrolled.

The administration planned on 2.7 million young enrolling in the first year. Early data show that relatively few are doing so. And a Harvard University survey found less than a third of young uninsured say they plan to buy an ObamaCare exchange plan.

Merline added that Gary Cohen, a top official at HHS, told the industry not to worry, since, as he put it in a letter to state insurance commissioners, "the risk corridor program should help ameliorate unanticipated changes in premium revenue." He concluded: “Translation: Taxpayers will bail the industry out of any costs created by Obama's ‘fix.’”

Via: Newsbusters.org

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POLL: GOP SURGES PAST DEMOCRATS

A new CNN poll finds a dramatic reversal in the battle for Congress. A month ago, Democrats held a 50-42 advantage on a generic ballot, gauging basic party preference. The disastrous rollout of ObamaCare has driven a ten-point swing to the Republicans. The GOP now leads Democrats 49-47. More importantly, Republicans hold a 17 point advantage among Independents. 

For the past month, President Obama's approval ratings have declined sharply in the wake of the implementation of ObamaCare. His falling poll numbers are acting like an anchor on Democrats everywhere. The new GOP advantage in the polls is not in response to anything the party has done. Indeed, most of the party's establishment seems consumed with waging a civil war with conservatives in the party. The conservative wing of the party, however, was the most vocal in opposition to ObamaCare and now looks prescient. 

A 10-point swing in the generic ballot is remarkable. Obviously, generic party members don't run in elections. Most generic ballot polls understate Republican support by 3-4 points. On the eve of the GOP wave in 2010, Republicans had the same 49% level of support in the generic ballot test. 

The fantasy that the Democrats could compete for control of the House ought to now be in tatters. With redistricting, that was a tough hill to climb. The continuing failure of ObamaCare not only makes it impossible, but raises the possibility that Republicans will gain seats in the House. 

Via: Breitbart

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CBS POLL: 84% OF DEMOCRATS WANT OBAMACARE CHANGED OR REPEALED

A fascinating number in Wednesday's CBS poll is that only 7% of the American public want ObamaCare "kept in place." A full 93% either believe that changes are needed to the law (48%) or want a full repeal (43%). This pits President Obama and Democrat lawmakers -- who thus far have refused to make any meaningful changes -- against 93% of the American people and 72% of Democrats.

Moreover, only 12% of Democrats want ObamaCare "kept as is." Another 12% want it repealed.

If only 12% of Democrats want nothing changed with ObamaCare, there is no question that Democrat lawmakers and the president are defying their own base with this ongoing refusal to make any real changes to the law. Furthermore, they are blocking proposed changes, including changes proposed by fellow Democrats.  

The growing narrative from the media and ObamaCare champions is that Democrats need to "stay the course." Analyzing the Democrats' political options, ABC's Rick Kleinwrites today:

Lost in the Democratic angst over Obamacare is a simple fact of 2014 politics: They don’t really have any choice but to own it. … No quantity of votes on “fixes” now will matter in the broad messaging wars later; no lawmaker, and virtually no Democratic challenger, will be able to seal him or herself off from potential political damage.

Klein is not alone with this advice. But how exactly is that a smart play when 84% of Democrats disagree?

Via: Breitbart

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President Obama's campaign group polling supporters on Obamacare

President Obama's campaign organization is polling its own supporters on the Affordable Care Act, asking them to answer a series of questions that appear designed to gauge their opinion of the rollout of the law and what they're hearing from friends and family.

In an email, Organizing For Action, formerly Obama For America, tells supporters that “it's easy to lose sight of what the law really does — and how millions of Americans are already seeing the benefits.” Supporters are then asked to click a link that takes them to five short survey questions. The poll also asks respondents to relay “what questions are you hearing about the new marketplace or other parts of Obamacare?”

Questions poised to supporters of Organizing For Action:

How well would you say you understand Obamacare?

o you currently have health insurance?

Have you, your family, or your friends enrolled through the new health insurance marketplace that opened Oct. 1?

Do you intend to purchase insurance through the new health insurance marketplace?

Do you have friends or family who plan on purchasing insurance through the new health insurance marketplace?

Via: Washington Examiner

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Pew Finds People Dislike Obamacare So Much, They Might Even Trust Republicans Now

There are a lot of interesting findings in the new Pew poll about the Affordable Care Act, released Sunday, but the most reliable and stark one: Americans really don’t like the law. They disapprove of it by an eleven-point margin — the biggest since Pew started asking about it.

More Americans already say the law has affected them negatively than positively — 20 percent to 17 — and even more believe the law has already hurt the country, 38 percent thinking it’s had a “mostly negative” effect to 24 percent thinking it’s “mostly positive.” Plenty of people say there hasn’t been too much of an effect so far, but asked to predict the long-term effects of the law, even more people are pessimistic, with a full 47 percent thinking it will have a mostly negative effect on the country as a whole.

And surely in part thanks to the consistent, growing unpopularity of the law itself, for the first time in years (the question has varied slightly), Pew found that people trust the Republican party over the Democratic party on health care, 40 percent to 39 (this could be a bit of an outlier, but the trend is slowly in the GOP’s direction). It’s important not to make to much of one poll but if this holds up, it’s a big deal, though both delay-reform-replace and defund-Obamacare Republicans will surely argue that their strategy is what’s engendered this improvement.

Via: National Review Online

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44 Percent Of Americans Don't Want To Raise Debt Ceiling, Poll Finds

As the U.S. draws closer to hitting its borrowing limit, polls released this week show that many Americans oppose raising the debt ceiling, despite worries about the consequences of failing to do so.

In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Friday, 44 percent of respondents said they are against raising the debt ceiling, while 22 percent said it should be raised so the U.S. avoids "going into bankruptcy and defaulting on its obligations." The remaining third said they are unsure.

“People’s first instinct is how fed up they are with Washington and spending,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff told NBC. “This is a very difficult issue in terms of public opinion.”

A Reason-Rupe poll released Thursday by the libertarian Reason Foundation and Arthur N. Rupe Foundation found even wider opposition, with 70 percent against raising the debt ceiling and 24 percent in favor of it. The poll, unlike the one from NBC/WSJ, didn't explicitly give respondents the option to say they didn't know enough to form an opinion.

While Americans are eager to tell pollsters they support cuts, however, they often hold conflicting opinions on budget issues, and public opinion is far from set. In the summer of 2011, NBC/WSJ polling showed that support for raising the debt ceiling rose by 10 points between June and July as the issue received more attention.

Despite the lack of support for increasing the debt limit, a CNN/ORC poll released earlier this week found that 62 percent of Americans said failing to do so would cause a "crisis" or "major problems." A 54 percent majority said they would blame Republicans in Congress for such a failure, while 25 percent said they'd blame President Barack Obama. Both figures are roughly the same as they were in CNN/ORC's 2011 polling.

Via: Huffington Post

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Fox News Poll: Voters say repeal ObamaCare, expect new law will cost them

INDEPENDENTS FAVOR REPEAL BY 40% MARGIN 65% TO 25%

Voters think ObamaCare is going to hurt their wallet and over half want the law repealed, according to a new Fox News national poll.

By a large 47-11 percent margin, voters expect the 2010 health care law will cost them rather than save them money in the coming year.  Another 34 percent think the law won’t change their family’s health care costs.  

Those negative expectations come at a time when a majority of the public remains unhappy with the way thing are going in the country (63 percent dissatisfied), and over half say they haven’t seen any signs the economy has started to turn the corner (57 percent).

Republicans are three times as likely as Democrats to think ObamaCare will cost them money over the next year (70 percent vs. 23 percent).  One Democrat in five expects the law will result in savings for their family (21 percent).

The poll asks people to take an up-or-down vote on ObamaCare: 40 percent say they would vote to keep the law in place, while just over half -- 53 percent -- would repeal it.  

Over half of those under age 45 (51 percent) as well as those 45 and over (56 percent) would vote to repeal ObamaCare

.

Most Republicans want the law repealed (by 85-13 percent) and so do independents (by 65-25 percent).  Most Democrats favor keeping ObamaCare (by 72-21 percent).

Via: Fox News

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OHIO NEWSPAPERS' POLL: RACE TIED AT 49, ROMNEY ERASES 5-POINT OBAMA LEAD

Yet another poll has shown the presidential race in Ohio tied, with President Barack Obama dropping below the crucial 50 percent mark. The latest Akron Beacon Journal/Ohio Newspaper Organization poll shows the race in a 49%-49% tie, with Republican Mitt Romney erasing the 51%-46% lead Obama enjoyed as of late September.

The poll, with a D+3 sample, also showed Romney leading 51%-46% on the issue of the economy. Obama held a slight lead among independent voters, albeit with a very large margin of error, given the small number of uncommitted voters remaining. Obama has retained his double-digit margin among women, while Romney has opened a double-digit lead among Ohio men, according to the poll.

Both campaigns are attempting to spin recent Ohio poll numbers in their favor, with the Obama campaign insisting that it is holding onto a narrow lead. Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus told CNN's Candy Crowley on Sunday's State of the Union program that the race is tied, and that a tie "goes to the challenger."

The campaigns have also dueled over early voting numbers in Ohio and elsewhere. The Obama campaign claims a large lead among those who are voting early, but the Romney campaign insists that margin is among a very small proportion of voters, and that the gap between Democrats and Republicans in early and absentee voting has narrowed significantly since 2008.

Via: Breitbart

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Morning Jay: Politics and the Gallup Poll

Since about the beginning of President Obama’s tenure, the Gallup poll has generally been one of the least positive polls for the Democratic party. This has prompted outrage and pressure from the left--even from presidential advisor David Axelrod.

Over the summer Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote a critique of Gallup’s daily presidential job approval poll. The point of which was that Gallup was over-sampling whites and thus understating President Obama’s position in the adult population. I responded by arguing that Blumenthal’s case was underdeveloped and less-than-met-the-eye, and that was basically where things stood.

Until, that is, this week. President Obama enjoyed a bounce in his Gallup job approval number after the Democratic National Convention, as was to be expected, but there was a twist: it did not disappear. And while Gallup on average had found Obama’s job approval around 47 percent with adults through most of 2012, for the last five weeks it has been regularly above 50 percent. Yesterday, it stood at 53 percent, a number we have not really seen since 2009.

Via: Weekly Standard

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CBS: OBAMA LEADS IN OUR D+13 POLL

Anyone following the presidential campaign through the prism of media polls is doing themselves a serious disservice. Virtually every one uses a polling sample that is so heavily-skewed towards Democrats that it distorts the actual state of the campaign. Of course, that is a feature, not a bug of the polls. The polls are specifically designed to drive a narrative that Obama is surging and Romney is struggling. Increasingly, though, the polls are having to go to ridiculous efforts to support this meme. Friday's CBS/New York Times poll, for example, uses a D+13 sample of registered voters. This is absurd. 

In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. Repeat after me; the Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edge for Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 model than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama's support. 

CBS does apply a Likely Voter screen to the head-to-head match up. The LV sample is D+6, similar to the make up of the 08 election. In that, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points, 49-46. In the RV sample, which more than doubles the proportion of Democrats to D+13, Obama leads by 8 points, 51-43. See the simple relationship there? 

Let's try a simple thought experiment. Imagine if, for a week, all media polls decided to use a sample that replicated the 2004 electorate--a D+0 model. Given the GOP's enthusiasm edge--even the CBS poll found Republicans voters with a double-digit lead on enthusiasm for the election--the electorate is going to look a lot more like 2004 than 2008. Imagine how the narrative of the campaign would change. The CBS poll found Romney beating Obama among Independents by 11 points. With a balanced partisan sample, Romney would likely post consistent leads against Obama. 

A week of this and Politico would run out of fuel for its daily "Romney is struggling" theme. Which is why the media will never adjust its samples. This election, it isn't so much about polling as propaganda. The polls are simply a tool being used by the media to try to depress GOP turnout and give a powerful lift to Obama's obviously lackluster campaign. 

The polls confirm that the media aren't really biased. Rather, they are active players for the other team. 

Via: Breitbart

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