When President Barack Obama takes the stage Thursday night at the Democratic convention, he’ll probably know a secret about the economy that you don’t: the contents of Friday’s employment report. But don’t expect easy clues in his big speech.
Friday’s jobs report, one of only three before the Nov. 6 election, could prove more influential in shaping perceptions about the economy than anything Mr. Obama says in Charlotte when he accepts his party’s nomination. Payroll numbers have been choppy throughout the year, and Friday’s data — released at 8:30 am Eastern time — might help clarify recent trends. (The report will also tell us whether the unemployment rate changed from July’s 8.3% and it could help the Federal Reserve determine whether to launch a new round of bond-buying next week.)
Mr. Obama doesn’t have to wait until the formal release to see the numbers. Under a decades-long practice, a select group of U.S. officials learns the contents of each month’s jobs report on the Thursday evening before its release. The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivers the information sometime Thursday afternoon to the White HouseCouncil of Economic Advisers, which analyzes the data and prepares a memo for the president. (The CEA chairman or director of the National Economic Council often informs the president in person.)
The routine is governed by a directive from the White House Office of Management and Budget. It allows top government officials — like those at the White House,Treasury Department and Fed — to know about an important report that could shake global markets. Employees of the executive branch aren’t supposed to comment publicly on the data until at least one hour after the official release on Friday morning. That’s why we don’t hear the White House’s spin on the report until 9:30 a.m., almost an hour after the opposing party has spit out its own statements. (The White House has gotten more careful in recent decades. Back in the 1960s, President Lyndon Johnson caused a stir more than once when he commented on favorable numbers before they were released.)
Via: Wall Street Journal
Via: Wall Street Journal