BIG MO: RYAN TO MINNESOTA SUNDAY

This morning, the Romney campaign announced that Paul Ryan would go to Minnesota on Sunday for a pre-election campaign rally. Its a clear sign that the Romney campaign thinks Minnesota is winnable.  Where campaigns spend their time in the closing days of a race says much more about their view of the election than words repeated by campaign flacks. Candidates' time is a campaign's most precious resource, and it is deployed only if it's needed or can have an impact. 

You don't waste a candidate's time on a bluff in the final 48 hours. 

Last night, the campaign announced that Mitt Romney would go to Philadelphia on Sunday for a campaign rally. It is telling that both Romney and Ryan are spending some of the campaign's final hours in a bid for states that haven't voted GOP for president in decades. 

The Obama campaign has dismissed this as a sign the Romney campaign is "flailing." Yet, they have matched the GOP ads buys in the state and have dispatched Biden and Clinton to Pennsylvania and Minnesota. They have to be at least somewhat concerned that Romney could steal these states from them if they don't respond. That's a tell. So to that end, Obama will spend this weekend doing at least five events in Wisconsin and Iowa, two states he won by double-digits in 2008. 

Remember, in the closing days of the 2008, Obama devoted lots of time to states that had traditionally voted Republican. That wasn't a campaign "flailing", but rather one riding a wave of momentum and deep dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration. 

We'll know Tuesday if Romney will be able to repeat history.

Via Breitbart

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THOUSANDS OVERFLOW ROMNEY SPEECH IN WISCONSIN

Thousands gathered to hear Mitt Romney deliver his "closing argument" in the suddenly-swing-state of Wisconsin--and two thousand more listened outside in 40-degree weather, according to Breitbart News correspondent Rebel Pundit, who is covering both campaigns as they compete for the state's ten electoral votes.

The photo above was taken at 10:26 a.m. this morning. The upper Midwest has become part of the Romney campaign's expanding electoral map, as Paul Ryan travels to address a rally in Minnesota on Sunday and Romney heads to Pennsylvania on Sunday as well. The Obama campaign is attempting to defend these formerly "safe" states by advertising and holding events in both. The turnout, however, seems to favor the challengers.

Via: Breitbart

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Obama campaign now buying ads in … Detroit

Via Mark Halperin and Jim Geraghty, who points out that Detroit’s TV market doesn’t reach Ohio. This is all about defending Michigan, which would have seemed crazy a month ago but now, in a world where The One is under 50 percent in Oregon, makes lots of sense. This is, after all, a state capable of electing a Republican governor (by a landslide) and a Republican legislature, and there’s a native son at the top of the GOP ticket. The last poll of Michigan — taken one week ago — showed a dead heat. I wonder what those Hopenchange internal numbers are showing right now. From Halperin:

An Obama aide tells me this on the Michigan ad buy:

“Restore Our Future went up with a $2 million buy in Michigan. We’re matching states where they go up. We’re not going to let them make a play anywhere.”

Both sides have enough money for these end-game ad forays. The real issues remain candidate time/visits, the psy-ops involved here, and the belief of some Republicans that a combination of Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could surprise on Election Day.

My only question: How likely is it that any of those three states comes through for Romney if Ohio doesn’t? And if Ohio comes through, why do we need any of those states? Seems like maybe the Romney Super PAC’s ad buy is less about stealing Michigan to capture the presidency even if Ohio falls through than it is (a) forcing Obama to divert money to a formerly “safe” state, and (b) increasing the odds of a big red wave if there’s a final small tilt towards Romney nationally (or regionally) over the next seven days. In that case, he wouldn’t “need” Michigan to win but it’d be lovely to have it as proof of a mandate to govern, and that’ll come in handy in twisting Democratic arms during those fiscal cliff/deficit reduction negotiations.

Elsewhere in “painting the map red” news: Romney just went up with his first ad in Pennsylvania, a state that ABC moved from “safe Democratic” to “lean Democratic” just yesterday — along with Minnesota. In the northwest, Team Mitt may be eyeing not only Oregon but even Washington state(!) as having turned more purplish than anticipated. And here’s a new ad from Citizens United that’s going up in Wisconsin and New Hampshire — a.k.a. Romney’s Plan B — but it’s not aimed at drumming up GOP turnout. In fact, it’s airing not on Fox News but on CNN and MSNBC. When you watch, you’ll understand why.

Via: Hot Air
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ROMNEY CLOSES IN MINNESOTA

The last time Minnesota cast its electoral votes for a Republican running for President was 1972. Even Ronald Reagan failed to win the state in both back-to-back landslide elections. It has elected Republicans to the occasional state-wide office, but for President, it is a deep indigo blue. Except, perhaps, this year. A new poll released this morning by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune finds the race essentially tied. Obama holds a slim 3-point lead but, at 47% support, is below the critical 50% threshold. 

To be fair, Minnesota wasn't really part of Obama's firewall for his reelection hopes. It was more of a redoubt. It was state, like California or Illinois, which would absolutely support Obama's reelection. That we are even discussing the possible vote in MN, just a little over a week before the election, is a flashing sign of the troubles plaguing Obama's campaign. 

Last month, the newspaper's poll showed Obama with an 8-point lead. But that 5-point drop in support isn't the worst news for Obama in the poll. The number of voters identifying themselves as Republican has surged. In last month's poll, Democrats had a 13-point edge in the sample, 41-28. Today's poll, however, only gives them a 5-point edge, 38-33. An 8-point swing in one month is extraordinary. 

In 2008, the overall electorate had a Democrat advantage of 4 points, so Republicans still have some room to grow here. Especially considering Obama's collapse in certain voter sub-groups. In 2008, Obama won independents by 17 points. Today, he leads by 6. He won men by 3 points; today he trails by 13. He won women by 16; today, in spite of a singular focus on what Democrats consider women's issues, his support is slightly lower at 14 points.  

Via: Breitbart

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Virtual tie in … Minnesota?

I’d be the first to tell people that my state is a quadrennial sucker bet for Republicans.  In 2008, no one thought we had a prayer, but in 2000 and 2004, Republicans actually thought they had a chance to break the Democrats’ presidential winning streak, as the state last went to the GOP in 1972.  I’ve been hearing Republicans get optimistic here again, but I’ve been highly skeptical of the prospects for Mitt Romney to even get close here.

Until now:

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney’s support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.

Bear in mind that this is the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, which has a long and (un)glorious history of leftward tilt.  Mitch Berg has long documented this trend.  One has to wonder whether we’ll need to send paramedics to his house this morning after he reads Rachel Stassen=Berger’s report from the survey.

Snark aside, this looks like a relatively solid poll.  The sample is D+5, with a D/R/I of 38/33/29.  In 2008 when Obama won by 10 points, it was D+4 at 40/36/22, and I suspect that Republicans are going to be more motivated this time around. Obama wins the core counties in the Twin Cities, but only by a relatively weak 57/35.  Romney wins the Metro suburbs with a majority 51/39 and edges Obama 46/44 in the rest of the state.

In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women.  This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men.  Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%.  Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.

That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.

Via: Hot Air

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Minnesota Schools Close So Teachers Can Play With Dolls, Learn About Teaching Islam

Each year, Minnesota government schools close for two days (just before the weekend, of course) so teachers’ union members can gather at a conference organized by their union.

It’s meant to “inspire teachers,” EAGnews.org reported, and the conference includes a session titled, “Using Persona Dolls to Promote Social Emotional Intelligence and Acceptance of Diversity.”

The union describes it this way: “Used around the world, persona dolls are lifelike dolls with personalities and stories you create. The dolls become members of your classroom community and children learn by empathizing with the dolls and giving them heartfelt advice on the same kinds of situations they struggle with daily in the classroom and on the playground.”

That’s weird. Teachers are taking time away from the classroom to learn how to play with dolls?

The conference also includes a workshop on how to teach about Islam. The union says about the session:

“An expert panel will present information on teaching about Islam in the context of social studies and world religion. They will share perspectives on how educators can help improve intercultural communication and well-being for immigrant and refugee students and families from Muslim countries.”

That sounds nice. Who’s betting they won’t hear anything about the September 11, 2001 hijackers’ jihad or suicide bombers blowing up American soldiers or Israeli children? And why the focus on only one religion?

And of course no teachers union conference would be complete without a session about the importance of the upcoming presidential election (it will become an Obama rally), and a discussion about how education reform efforts are misguided and dangerous.

Couldn’t the union hold this session during the summer, or on a weekend, when there are no classes to interrupt? They have to annually take time out of the school calendar to hold their union pep rally and play with dolls?

Is it any wonder American students are trailing behind their counterparts in South Korea, Estonia and Luxembourg? Is it too much for union teachers to remain in in the classroom and focus on the basics, instead of cancelling classes to talk about their ideas of “social justice” and promote their union’s political agenda?

Via: Townhall

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