Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Opinion: Why A Budget Deal Could Push Unemployment Above 10 Percent


Friday, forecasters expect the Labor Department to report the economy added 80,000 jobs in November—substantially less than the 171,000 added the prior month. As budgets talks are progressing disappointing jobs reports could likely continue into the New Year.

Factors contributing to a slowdown in jobs creation include temporary displacements caused by Hurricane Sandy and business worries that President Obama and Congressional Republicans will not reach a compromise to avert the fiscal cliff. However, looming larger has been a slowdown in growth of consumer spending in recent months, and the continuing nagging effects of the trade deficit on economic activity.

The economy must add more than 349,000 jobs each month for three years to lower unemployment to 6 percent and that is not likely with current policies.

Convincing millions of American adults they don’t need or want a job has been Washington’s most effective jobs program.

Most analysts see the unemployment rate inching up to 8.0 percent, while a few see it remaining steady. The wildcard is the number of adults actually working or seeking jobs—the measure of the labor force used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Labor force participation is lower today than when President Obama took office and the recovery began, and factoring in discouraged adults and others working part-time that would prefer full time work, the unemployment rate is 14.6 percent.

Convincing millions more adults they don’t need or want a job has been Washington’s most effective jobs program, despite trillions in new stimulus spending, industrial policies, targeted tax cuts, and social programs intended to boost demand.

Via Fox News


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