For months, the key question about the upcoming midterm congressional elections has been whether Republicans can overcome their six-seat deficit to become the majority party in the US Senate.
Now the question has changed somewhat — to whether the surprising strength of Republican candidates in states once considered long shots for the GOP portends disaster for Democrats hobbled by ObamaCare and the president’s weak approval ratings.
No one doubted the GOP would come close or better than close to a Senate takeover in November. But every day, the map looks more favorable for the Republicans.
First, four races feature wounded Democrats in states that went against President Obama in 2012: Mark Pryor (Arkansas), Mary Landrieu (Lousiana), Kay Hagan (North Carolina) and Mark Begich (Alaska).
The GOP challenger in Arkansas, the extremely impressive Rep. Tom Cotton, may already be running away with his race; he’s ahead anywhere from four to seven points over Pryor. Every potential Republican challenger to Hagan is beating her in head-to-head polls. In Alaska, Begich is losing to both possible GOP candidates and has a job-approval rating around 40 percent, which is basically death for an incumbent. Landrieu is essentially tied with her leading challenger, Rep. Bill Cassidy; that’s better than her colleagues, but not where you want to be when you’ve served as a senator for 18 years.
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