A raging war has been underway between Republicans/Romney and the mainstream media (MSM)/polling organizations on the accuracy of many recently reported polls. Both sides have stridently argued their cases in a vicious skirmish that has been decidedly unequal. The Republicans, the Romney campaign, conservative talk radio, conservative new media and Fox News have valiantly fought the Democrats, the MSM, some polling organizations and the Obama campaign organization. Yet given just the megaphones owned by the MSM and Obama's bully pulpit, the battle has been the equivalent of brandishing a popgun at a howitzer...the voting public seemingly is not hearing the battle's thunder or is still not deeply engaged in the election.
So what are the facts...is there a battle plan, an alliance between Obama, the MSM, and polling organizations designed to destroy Romney's candidacy? Are the polls presenting biased and inaccurate findings? Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? In essence are they in cahoots with Obama, the MSM, and liberal/progressive democrats? Is there any compelling evidence that the MSM is using polling selectively to promote Barack Obama and other democrat office seekers? And will the constant and continuous bludgeoning of Romney using biased or inaccurate polls damage his presidential chances?
The basic argument that the polls are biased begins with the 2008 presidential election outcome. Obama won by capturing an electorate composed of 39% Dems, 32% Reps and 29% Independents; this differential is known as a D+7 spread/party affiliation or D+7 electorate. Barack Obama also defeated John McCain by 7 points in the popular vote. In contrast, G.W. Bush defeated J. Kerry in 2004 with an electorate containing 37% Dems, 37% Reps and 26% Inds. The 2008 election was unique in many respects. Barack Obama was African American, youthful, a skilled speaker, untested, mysterious, cool and the MSM's chosen one. Anecdotal evidence of the excitement Obama generated was everywhere; on bumpers, on yard signs, on BHO paraphernalia in convenience stores, in conversations at water cooler and the growing hagiographic comments in the press. A spread of +7 was a rare event in presidential elections and the largest in decades; it followed eight difficult years, two wars, a financial and economic crisis.
