YEAR OF THE OUTSIDER: TRUMP, CARSON SURGE IN IOWA

A new poll from CNN/ORC finds Donald Trump dominating likely caucus-goers in Iowa. Somewhat more surprising, though, is that retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has surged into second place, edging out long-time Iowa frontrunner Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

The poll, of more than 5oo caucus-goers, found Trump in first with 22 percent, followed by Carson with 14 percent. Walker dropped to third, with just 9 percent support.

Texas 

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

96%

 followed with 8 percent. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were just behind Cruz with 7 percent each.

More establishment candidates including Florida 

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

80%

and Jeb Bush have faded to the back of the crowded field, with just 5 percent support each. They are tied with 

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)

93%

 from Kentucky. The other candidates have 3 percent or less.

The poll is the latest evidence that the the early innings of the 2016 are not strictly just a story about Donald Trump. The larger dynamic is that voters are rejecting  any candidate who is seen as tied to the Washington Republican establishment.

Political pundits may try to dismiss the Trump surge as something unique to his nearly ubiquitous personality, but the rise of candidates including Carson, Fiorina, Cruz and, to some extent Walker, shows an eagerness by voters to break with anything that reeks of Washington or the establishment.

Trump’s edge with voters rests on their belief that he is the best candidate to tackle the economy, foreign policy and illegal immigration. Almost half of caucus-goers, 44 percent, say he is the candidate most likely to change the way Washington works.

Trump is weakest with voters who describe themselves as “very conservative.” Those voters, who historically make up a large share of the caucus, prefer Carson, at 25 percent, followed by Cruz and Walker, each with 15 percent, with Trump in third, with 12 percent support. Among evangelical Christians, though, Trump ties Carson for first, each with 18 percent. Cruz at 12 percent, Huckabee 11 and Walker 10.

The two groups, “very conservative” and evangelicals will likely make up around 60 percent of those attending a caucus.

A caucus operates very differently from a primary election. To be successful in a caucus, a candidate needs very energized supporters, who may have to devote an hour or more to the voting process.

This will give the edge to candidates who are clearly distinct from Republican leadership in Washington. Whether its Trump, Carson or Cruz on the right or Vermont 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

16%

 on the left, voters are fed-up with Washington.

This year is shaping up as the year of the outsider.

Via: Breitbart

Continue Reading....

Who Can Beat Hillary?

Already feeling overwhelmed by the 2016 presidential race? It's understandable with 16 major Republican candidates running for White House. This doesn't count a slew of lesser-known aspirants, including some former governors who would merit attention in a smaller field.

People ridiculed the 1988 Democratic presidential candidates as the "Seven Dwarves." So far, no one has called this group the Sweet 16. Only 10 at a time are expected to appear together onstage for debates sanctioned by the Republican National Committee. Among them are senators, governors, a successful businesswoman, a retired neurosurgeon and author and a billionaire reality TV star.

Can any of them beat Hillary Clinton? They have reason to hope, for the last time Clinton looked inevitable, she lost. Her odds of making it out of the Democratic primaries are much better this time. So far, she has attracted four challengers and only Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator from Vermont, has attracted a meaningful following. Neither Joe Biden nor any other Democratic savior has emerged.

The general election is a shakier proposition for Clinton. She fares well in national polls, frequently beating her Republican rivals by double digits in hypothetical match-ups. But swing state polls tell a different story. In late July, Quinnipiac found her losing Colorado, Iowa and Virginia — they are all states Barack Obama carried twice and George W. Bush won at least once — to the leading Republican candidates.

But if the polls more than a year before the election were determinative, Rudy Giuliani and Richard Gephardt would have been major-party presidential nominees, and John McCain might have been president of the United States. At this point, Clinton looks like a competitive but beatable candidate in the general election. But before any of the Republicans can beat Hillary, they must first defeat the rest of the GOP field.

The Republican race is wide open, with barely 10 points separating first and fourth places in the national RealClearPolitics polling average. Fewer than 20 points separate first place from fifteenth place, a spot occupied in July by a candidate with 0 percent of the vote.

Superficially, the 2016 GOP contest looks a lot like past races. You have an establishment candidate in Jeb Bush. The combined finances of his campaign and super PAC mean Bush is awash in money. He has a good team, solid organization and plenty of endorsements. Then there's a group of candidates competing to be the conservative alternative to Jeb.

Yet the race is, in other ways, like no other in recent memory. Bush is the establishment candidate, yes, but he is not the clear front-runner. He's led in only one major poll in Iowa since May 2014, and after trailing Mike Huckabee in an outlier poll in February, he has at different times lost his national lead to Scott Walker, Marco Rubio and, most recently, Donald Trump.

Via: Washington Examiner

Continue Reading...