Showing posts with label ADP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ADP. Show all posts

Friday, November 2, 2012

It Begins: ADP Cuts September Job Creation Numbers By Almost 50%…


Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.



Unemployment
ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.

The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor's September job creation household survey net total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector.
The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent. Separately, as the government's establishment survey said the total number of new private-sector workers swelled by 873,000. (Read MoreConsumer Prices Rise on Energy Surge; No Pay Gains)

Economists expect Friday's report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.

When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.

The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

Moody's economist Mark Zandi did not return a request for comment.


Wednesday, October 31, 2012

REPORT: SEPTEMBER JOBS NUMBERS INFLATED


So you were suspicious about those September job creation numbers touted by the Obama Administration? You had goodreason to be. 

The payroll data firm ADP, which recently became partners with Moody’s Analytics, revised their estimate of the September jobs created down from 162,000 to 88,200. That new number is considerably less than the Labor Department’s count of 114,000, which included 104,000 from the private sector.
When the Labor Department’s job numbers came out for September, there was an uproar; many observers thought the numbers were manipulated to benefit Barack Obama’s reelection. As Jack Welch, former head of General Electric, tweeted after the Labor Department’s release: "Unbelievable jobs numbers...these Chicago guys will do anything...can't debate so change numbers."
But the revised ADP numbers have sparked strong suspicion that the October numbers will be worse than the Labor Department will let on. 
Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York, said: “It's huge, no doubt about it. Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."
ADP is taking no chances this time; they will announce their October count on Thursday before the Labor Department announces theirs on Friday. ADP said its new reports will offer a more detailed breakdown of the numbers while they increase the numbers of businesses analyzed.

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