Showing posts with label CBO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CBO. Show all posts
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Demonomics
This week the big story was the tag end of the old JournoList gang trying to spin gold out of the dross of the Congressional Budget Report. The CBO report projected that by 2021 under ObamaCare more than 2 million full-time workers will find it financially advisable to quit work entirely or switch to part-time jobs in order to get more subsidies for healthcare insurance. To most of us who studied real economics or just paid attention to human nature, subsidizing indolence means you'll get more of it.
But to the airheads on the left and their JournoList spinmasters -- the very people who believed in their hearts that young, healthy workers would willingly pay more for their health insurance to subsidize older, sicker Americans and learned nothing from the failure of that prediction , this devastating CBO report spelled out a wonderful new world of possibilities for American workers at the bottom rungs.
1. Job Lock
But to the airheads on the left and their JournoList spinmasters -- the very people who believed in their hearts that young, healthy workers would willingly pay more for their health insurance to subsidize older, sicker Americans and learned nothing from the failure of that prediction , this devastating CBO report spelled out a wonderful new world of possibilities for American workers at the bottom rungs.
1. Job Lock
Working their dreidels overtime, the gang argued that the CBO report was going to end job lock -- long a Republican goal -- but as "Ignatz" posted on Just One Minute: "I believe the Republican idea was to decouple insurance from employment, not decouple the employee from employment"
Via: American Thinker
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Saturday, February 8, 2014
Ben Domenech Clears Up Entire CBO Report Debate In Four Minutes
“What kind of economy do you want? Do you want one where people are working more hours for themselves and their families? Or do you want one where some people are going to be working more hours to pay for the subsidies, and some people are going to be working fewer hours but they’ll have health care?”
Ben Domenech of the Heartland Institute appears on MSNBC’s All In With Chris Hayes this week to discuss Obamacare costs and the implications of the CBO report.
This is an excellent breakdown of exactly what the implications are of the CBO report and what Obamacare means for the work force in the future. The above quote is a key take-away. Hayes is arguing that it’s good that people don’t have to work more hours simply to ensure they have health insurance. Domenech argues that it’s not a good thing when some people have to work more hours to pay for the subsidies so other people can work fewer hours and still get healthcare. Taking more labor from some to pay for less labor from others. Gee, where have we heard this sort of philosophy before?
DOMENECH: The problem here is about labor force participation. It’s not about some new aspect of Obamacare that’s been discovered that’s killing jobs. This is CBO basically going back and looking at the prediction they gave us a few years ago, when they said that about 800,000 equivalent full time would drop out of the labor force because of Obamacare. This is them looking at it again after new research that’s been done by Harvard, by M.I.T. scholars, by the University of Chicago in particular that essentially found that the effect was going to be far more dramatic, in part this because of the effect of subsidies on the marketplace but it’s really driven by the fact that Obamacare is behaving differently than Romneycare in a couple of key ways, which was the basis for the earlier CBO assumption.
HAYES: That is a really good point. I think actually this is where we get to a genuine point of contention. Let’s separate out two kinds of ways in which peoplel might choose to work less because of Obamacare. One which a lot of people talking about is this early retirement, which you’ve seen a lot. I’ve heard a lot of people saying, i’m working until i’m on Medicare, that is a very common thing you hear. There’s a certain amount of people that the presence of Obamacare means I have guaranteed issue, i’m 60, 61, I can leave my job and I can have health care, I don’t have to stay locked in this job for healthcare. that to me seems like a net benefit, do you agree with that?
Via: The Right Scoop
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The Most Embarrassing Efforts to Spin CBO’s Obamacare Report as ‘Good’ News
A bombshell Congressional Budget report released this week indicated that the Affordable Care Act will result in the equivalent of 2.5 million workers voluntarily leaving the workforce by 2024, all taking their productivity with them. The report is politically devastating for ACA supporters, and they know it. Their flailing reaction to that report speaks to the adverse impact it could have on Democrats’ political position ahead of the 2014 midterms.
The last 48 hours have produced some of the finest, most rarified examples of spin the political universe has been privy to in some time. It’s been a veritable windfall for consumers of political discourse who enjoy observing painful rhetorical contortions.
The majority of those recklessly twisting this impending economic disaster into a welcome development have generally tried to focus on the expanded “opportunity” that will result from creating publicly-funded incentives for people not to work.
“Many workers, however, will see not having to ‘work for the man’ to get health coverage as liberation,”wrote liberal columnist Froma Harrop, channeling David Crosby.
She went on to label as “anecdotal” the prediction that “some employers may reduce worker’s hours to avoid paying the employer mandate,” a function of the ACA that has not even taken effect yet. In the following paragraph, however, she said the opportunity provided by not working will allow others to “start the business they’ve always dreamed of,” or allow parents to “spend more time with their children.” Some anecdotes appear are more equal than others.
The more thoughtful E.J. Dionne took a stab at spinning the news himself. On Thursday, Dionne offered up his own anecdote, one about a 64-year-old looking to work less to spend more time with the kids. “Many on the right love family values until they are taken seriously enough to involve giving parents/workers more control over their lives,” he wrote. I take back what I said about being thoughtful.
“And it’s sometimes an economic benefit when some share of the labor force reduces hours or stops working altogether,” Dionne added. “At a time of elevated unemployment, others will take their place. The CBO was careful to underscore — the CBO is always careful — that ‘if some people seek to work less, other applicants will be readily available to fill those positions and the overall effect on employment will be muted.’”
At least that’s an argument, one that can be summed up as essentially: Unemployment will remain virtually as high as it is today when the equivalent of 2.5 million productive workers perform a simple cost/benefit analysis and determine it is in their best interest to cut back on their working hours. Even Dionne might concede that it’s an argument of dubious political utility for Democrats.
He’s not alone in making the claim that a vast exodus of able workers from the labor market might be a good thing. In U.S. News & World Reports, Danielle Kurtzleben, bravely wrote what she claims we’re all afraid to say:
What the truth might be, and what few politicians would dare say, is there might simply be some value in lower economic growth.
Via: Mediaite
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Zogby Report Card: Only 29% say Obama has nation headed in right direction
Pollster John Zogby reports in our weekly White House report card that President Obama's numbers are mixed, both in approval rating and right-direction, wrong-direction.
"I am a numbers guy and the numbers are mixed. Troubling for Obama is that so few Americans feel the U.S. is headed in the right direction (29 percent average) and that the stock market is falling. This could be the inevitable correction and the obvious impact of the Fed's tapering.
“He is also still upside down in public opinion toward Obamacare, though the gap between supporters and opponents is not really widening.
“On the flip side, his approval numbers are averaging at 43 percent, more like 44 percent in the most recent polls, and the numbers of applications for jobless benefits are considerably down. Unemployment is down to 6.6 percent, and only 113,000 new jobs were created, but November and December job numbers have been revised up.
“CBO comes out with a report that appears to be two-handed — Obamacare discourages people from staying on the job one day, but the next day, it encourages people to stay working. Thanks for the clarity, guys.
“And House Speaker John Boehner says there will be no immigration reform law this year, playing to his base and helping the president play to his."
Grade -- C
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Congressional Budget Office sends death blow to ObamaCare
The Affordable Care Act, a k a ObamaCare, became law almost four years ago. It became operational last Oct. 1. Yesterday, Feb. 4, 2014, the ACA may well have been dealt its death blow.
The Congressional Budget Office released a major study of the government’s budget and its effect on the overall economy over the next 10 years. In dull bureaucratic language, it delivers a devastating analysis of the inefficiencies, ineffectualities and problematic social costs of ObamaCare.
The one-two punch: Virtually as many Americans will lack health coverage in 10 years as before the law was passed — but 2 million fewer will be working than if the law hadn’t passed.
One killer detail comes on Page 111, where the report projects: “As a result of the ACA, between 6 million and 7 million fewer people will have employment-based insurance coverage each year from 2016 through 2024 than would be the case in the absence of the ACA.”
ObamaCare’s key selling point was that it would give coverage to a significant number of the 30-plus million Americans who lack it. Now the CBO is telling the American people that a decade from now, 6 million-plus of their countrymen won’t get health care through their employers who otherwise would have.
Via: New York Post
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Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market: CBO
Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017 as employees decide either to work fewer hours or drop out altogether, according to the latest estimates Tuesday from the Congressional Budget Office.
That’s a major jump in the nonpartisan budget agency’s projections and it suggests the health care law’s incentives are driving businesses and people to choose government-sponsored benefits rather than work.
“CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 to 2 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive,” CBO analysts wrote in their new economic outlook.
The scorekeepers also said the rollout problems with the Affordable Care Act last year will mean only 6 million people sign up through the state-based exchanges, rather than the 7 million the CBO had originally projected.
But over the long run, Obamacare will eventually catch up and by 2020 only about 30 million people will be without insurance coverage — down from 45 million this year. That will mean about 92 percent of legal U.S. residents without guaranteed access to Medicare will have insurance coverage.
Via: Washington Times
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Friday, December 6, 2013
RYAN BUDGET DEAL MAY HIKE TSA FEES
Congressional Budget Committee chairs Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray are working to finalize a deal on the federal budget. Reportedly, the two are just "a few billion" away from an agreement to fund government and replace the automatic sequester cuts. The deal may also increase government revenue through higher "fees" for airline security and other government services. This idea should never get off the ground.
“That sort of thing is a user fee, it’s not a tax,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a party to the negotiations. “It’s not something that I would have an objection to as a tax increase. But we’ll see where [Ryan and Murray] end up.”
Calling higher government revenue a "fee" rather than a "tax" is mostly a distinction without a difference. Money to pay a fee still comes from a consumer's wallet, not some magical "fee" account.
Calling higher government revenue a "fee" rather than a "tax" is mostly a distinction without a difference. Money to pay a fee still comes from a consumer's wallet, not some magical "fee" account.
Reportedly, Ways and Means Chairman Rep. David Camp, has briefed several Republican colleagues about the possibility of including "revenue raisers" in any budget deal. As if the federal government had a revenue problem.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, government revenue currently equals about 15% of GDP. Next year, the amount the government takes out of the economy will spike to 17.5%. Over the next two decades, the government's take will gradually increase to equal 19.5% of the economy, higher than its historical average. Over the past 4 decades, government revenue has averaged 17.5% of the overall economy.
If anything, the government should be trimming its revenues.
Via: Breitbart
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Lying about Lies President Obama is now dishonestly defending his dishonest assertions.
In making this claim, the president focuses on the individual market, which he accurately notes covers about 5 percent of Americans. Still, that is about 14 to 15 million people. So far, as of mid November, roughly 4.8 million individual insurance plans have been canceled, with most estimates suggesting that as many as 10 million will eventually lose their current coverage.
But the same conditions that are causing the cancellation of individual policies will eventually result in thecancellation of millions of employment-based policies as well. The only reason that hasn’t happened yet is that the employer mandate was postponed for a year, so employer plans don’t yet have to be ACA-compliant. But they will. Even the Congressional Budget Office estimates that as many as 20 million workers will lose their current employer-sponsored plans. Combine that with those losing individual plans, and more than 30 million Americans cannot keep their current insurance.
It could be far more. As Avik Roy of the Manhattan Institute points out, some 51 percent of the employer-based insurance market will lose grandfathered status and need to make changes to comply with Obamacare provisions. That could mean that, in total, as many as 93 million will lose their insurance. That’s not exactly “a few.”
The policies being canceled are “substandard,” offering few if any real benefits.
Via: NRO
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Wednesday, November 6, 2013
GOP Sen. Grills Sebelius: ‘Are You Saying Insurance Rates Are Going Down?’
Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID) interrogated Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius during her testimony before the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday morning on whether the Affordable Care Act was reducing insurance premiums in the individual marketplace.
“We are seeing millions of Americans lose their health care,” Crapo said. “Millions and millions more see their health care premiums going up, and the price for some of these fixes that you are talking about is phenomenally higher than we understood or was represented. Isn’t it time to go in and take a look at the areas of the law that are simply failing?”
“Actually, senator, in the marketplace, the rates have come in about 16% lower than what the Congressional Budget Office projected those rates to be,” the secretary responded.
“That’s not lower than actual facts,” Crapo said, referring to the difference between what rates were before the ACA, versus what the CBO projected them to be after the ACA. “Are you saying that in the individual market, insurance rates are going down?”
“I didn’t say they are going down,” Sebelius said. “But that the rates are lower than was predicted. For millions of people in the market, they will actually, for the first time ever, have some financial help paying for their health insurance.”
Monday, November 4, 2013
WH: Yeah, about those 7 million people we needed to register for Obamacare…
It was quite the weekend of, shall we say, managing expectations in Washington. Erika already pointed out that the original roll out for the whole, “if you like your plan” may have been questioned internally by subject matter experts and advisors, but hey… that didn’t matter. See, we never really meant all the plans. Just the good ones.
Another theme you previously heard from administration officials over and over again dealt with how many people absolutely, positively, without a doubt would need to be enrolled in the program in order for it to be able to stand on its own feet financially. That number, lest you somehow missed it, was seven million. We need everyone on board with this and registered in order for everyone to share the burden. But, as Andrew Johnson points out at The Corner, White House spokesman Dan Pfeiffer showed up on the Sunday show circuit to say that the original number may have been more of an estimate.
Dan Pfeiffer, one of President Obama’s top advisers, played down the initial estimation that 7 million people would need to enroll in Obamacare exchanges in order for the program to succeed. He said the White House wasn’t going off of that figure offered by the Congressional Budget Office, but rather just try to “as many people done as possible.”
Let’s go to the video.
You have to admit, as targets go, as many people as possible is a pretty comfortable goal. You pretty much can’t miss that one, even if the number turns out to be six. But seriously, if there are any software people left in the country currently not working on fixing this debacle, somebody may want to build us a database just to keep track of the number of different stories we’ve been told about this program from the original bill of sale to present.
On a possibly related topic, do you suppose these shifting tales of woe could have something to do with The One’s daily job approval rating finally hitting 40?
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Study: Average Premiums for Young Women to Increase 193%
Healthy young women will see their premiums rise by an average of almost 200 percent under Obamacare, with increases occurring in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to a new study.
Earlier this month, the American Action Forum released an analysisthat found the average 30-year-old male nonsmoker would see his premiums rise 260 percent.
Using the same metrics, the organization found that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would be just as harsh on women trying to purchase bronze level plans, the cheapest insurance available in the marketplace.
“All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw insurance rate increases, with 42 of those states experiencing triple digit percentage increases in premiums for the lowest-priced coverage,” the study said. “Pre-ACA premiums for a 30-year-old nonsmoking woman average $74.49 monthly, while post-ACA premiums average $188.72 per month, a $114.23, or 153 percent, increase.”
Overall, states averaged a 193 percent increase in premiums for 30-year-old female nonsmokers.
The American Action Forum, a center-right policy institute led by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former director of the Congressional Budget Office, compared premiums across the country in 2013 to rates under the federally and state run exchanges in the heath insurance marketplace.
Similar to their previous study, the organization found that even with subsidies, young women would likely forego health insurance since the penalty for being uninsured is much cheaper than the premiums in the marketplace.
Friday, October 11, 2013
EXCLUSIVE: Just 51,000 people completed Obamacare applications during the website's first week, out of tens of millions of Americans in 36 states
- Obamacare's main signup engine attracted just 6,200 new customers on its launch day and 51,000 after the first week
- At the same rate, the 6-month open enrollment period would sign up just 2 million Americans, including 14 states and D.C., which have their own insurance exchanges
- The Congressional Budget Office says Obamacare needs at least 7 million customers to stay afloat financially
- Numerous Obama administration officials have denied seeing any enrollment figures at all
- MailOnline's sources are two Health and Human Services workers who have access to the data as it's crunched
- Texas congressman says anemic national enrollment numbers are 'roughly the population of a small town in my district'
Just 51,000 people completed Obamacare applications during the first week the Healthcare.gov website was online, according to two sources inside the Department of Health and Human Services who gave MailOnline an exclusive look at the earliest enrollment numbers.
The career civil servants, who process data inside the agency, confirmed independently that just 6,200 Americans applied for health insurance through the problem-plagued website on October 1, the day it first opened to the public.
Neither HHS nor the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services would comment on the record about the numbers. Enroll America, the president's organization of health care 'navigators' who are charged with helping Americans sign up, didn't reply to a request for information about its level of success so far.
The White House also did not respond to emails seeking comment.
But several administration officials have claimed this month that they didn't have access to the kinds of raw figures MailOnline obtained from the people who work for them. And the anemic totals suggest a far lower level of interest in coverage through the Affordable Care Act than the Obama administration has hoped to see.
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Reality Check: Questionable claims fly in debt-ceiling battle
President Obama makes it sound that way, as the stand-off over the budget rapidly turns into a stand-off over the debt ceiling.
“They are threatening to actually force the United States to default on its obligations for the very first time in history,” Obama said Thursday in Maryland.
But the claim is one of several that don’t quite comport with the facts.
In the event Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury Department “would make every effort to avoid default,” said economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin.
The former director of the Congressional Budget Office said there is some debate over how much flexibility the Treasury would have to prioritize certain payments. But he predicted they would find a way to make sure interest payments to bondholders are sent out first.
“I promise you – in the moment, they would do it. And who would sue them?” Holtz-Eakin said.
That’s not to say the Treasury Department would be able to avoid an economic calamity. Even if officials pay bondholders on time, without the ability to borrow, other bills would simply not get paid.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
CBO Sees Increasing 'Risk of a Fiscal Crisis'
(CNSNews.com) - The Congressional Budget Office released its 2013 long-term budget outlook on Tuesday, stating that "a large and continually growing federal debt ...would increase the probability of a fiscal crisis for the United States."
The report says under current laws and policies, the federal debt could reach 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2038.
It also projects that the federal government's health care spending "will grow considerably in 2014 because of changes made by the Affordable Care Act."
CBO says federal debt held by the public is now about 73 percent of the economy’s annual output, or gross domestic product. "That percentage is higher than at any point in U.S. history except a brief period around World War II, and it is twice the percentage at the end of 2007," the report said.
If current laws stay generally the same, CBO expects federal debt held by the public to decline slightly relative to GDP over the next several years, but after that, deficits would grow again, partly because of the the government’s major health care programs (Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies to be provided through the new Obamacare health insurance exchanges).
Via: CNS NewsContinue Reading....
STARBUCKS CEO: OBAMACARE 'GOOD THING FOR THE COUNTRY'
Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says Obamacare is "a good thing for the country."
The coffee giant chief's comments came during a CNBC interview with anchor Maria Bartiromo.
"On balance, I would say the health care law, to provide health insurance for those people who did not have it, was a good thing for the country and a good thing for those people, and I would encourage them to find ways to provide the insurance and not figure out a way to either lower the hours or get around the system," said Schultz.
Schultz blasted businesses that are reducing worker hours to avoid Obamacare fines.
"Many companies today are reducing hours of full-time people to get under the minimum so they don't have to pay health care costs," said Schultz. "I just shake my head because that's not going to build long-term value and trust with your people. That is a short-term solution and ultimately is not going to add value to the enterprise, the company and your customers."
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that employers will be forced to pay $130 billion in Obamacare penalties.
Investor's Business Daily has compiled a growing list of 258 employers who have slashed worker hours or laid off workers in reaction to the law's regulations.
Monday, September 9, 2013
Treasury: Debt Up $0 in August; CBO: But Deficit Was $146B
(CNSNews.com) - The federal deficit increased by $146 billion in August, according to a report released today by the Congressional Budget Office. But, at the same time, according to the U.S. Treasury, the federal debt did not increase at all during the month.
Total federal receipts were $185 billion during August, according to the CBO, while total federal outlays were $331 billion. Thus, the Treasury was forced to engage in $146 billion in deficit spending.
Despite this deficit spending, the Treasury reported that at the close of every single business day in August, the federal debt subject to a legal limit by Congress remained exactly $16,699,396,000,000.
That is approximately just $25 million below the legal limit on the debt that is $16,699,421,095,673.60
If the federal debt had climbed by the same $146 billion that the deficit climbed in August, it would have exceeded the legal limit by almost $146 billion.
In fact, according to the Daily Treasury Statements that the Treasury publishes at 4:00 p.m. on each business day, the debt subject to the legal limit has remained at exactly $16,699,396,000,000--or about $25 million below the legal limit--every day since May 17.
Via: CNS NewsContinue Reading....
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