Even after the 2011 debt ceiling crisis was resolved, President Obama's approval rating tanked. Photograph: AP Photo/Jim Watson
So, people currently blame the Republicans more than anyone else for the government shutdown, but predicting the long-term political fallout is not as easy as that suggests. For one thing, the latest CBS News pollshows that while slightly more people believe the Republicans are at fault, a majority of them are upset with both sides for the inability to avert this crisis.
The real story is not revealed by people's view of the politicians; it's contained in the indices of economic sentiment. Gallup finds thatAmericans' confidence in the economy has dropped like a rock, from -20pt just before the shutdown, to -35pt now. And it would not be surprising to see that measure continue to fall over coming days, with the deadline for raising the debt ceiling looming in ten days' time.
What we're seeing is a time-lag in consequences for the politicians. Gallup has President Obama's approval rating still within its normal range of 45%, plus or minus a few points.
But remember the debt ceiling battle of April to July 2011: the politicians solved that crisis without the US actually defaulting, yet the mere idea of a default hurt tremendously. S&P downgraded the United States' credit rating, while Gallup's economic confidence rating fellby 30pt, to -55.
