Trump Change Trump Change: Voters Rate His Chances

Friday, August 21, 2015

Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has captured the public’s attention for better or worse, and his bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, once seen as a pipe dream, is now a topic of serious discussion. So for the near future at least, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 27% who felt a Trump nomination was likely two months ago when he formally announced his presidential bid, a finding that included just nine percent (9%) who said it was Very Likely.

At that time, Trump ran near the bottom among the 12 declared GOP candidates. Now he leads the pack of Republican hopefuls which has grown to include 17 prominent contenders.

Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 23% and seven percent (7%) respectively in the earlier survey. Forty-eight percent (48%) now say Trump is not likely to win the nomination, with 21% who feel it is Not At All Likely.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Republican voters say Trump is unlikely to be their party’s standard-bearer next year, but that includes just 15% who say it’s Not At All Likely. That’s down from 29% who said a Trump nomination was Not At All Likely two months ago. (To see survey question wording,click here.)

Trump’s support fell following the first GOP debate.

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs or spokesman Leon Sculti are available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail 

to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 19-20, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As each Republican presidential candidate formally announced, Rasmussen Reports asked voters how likely he or she was to ultimately be the nominee. Jeb Bush was the leader with 56% of likely GOP voters saying he was likely to win the nomination, including 16% who said it was Very Likely.  But we haven’t asked that question about Bush or any of the other GOP hopefuls in recent weeks.

[Here’s a look at how all the announced presidential candidates stacked up initially.]

Voters agree with Trump on the need to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. They also believe overwhelmingly that illegal immigrants convicted of a felony in this country should be deported. Trump made both proposals in a policy paper he released last weekend that calls for getting tough on illegal immigration.

Earlier this summer, Trump took a lot of criticism from Democrats and other Republican presidential hopefuls over his candid remarks about the criminality of many illegal immigrants, but most voters agree with Trump that illegal immigration increases serious crime in this country.

The reaction to his comments also increased media coverage of the murder of a young woman in San Francisco by an illegal immigrant from Mexico who said he came to that city because it does not enforce immigration laws. Most voters now want to get tough on so-called “sanctuary cities” that refuse to enforce these laws.

We noted in a commentary last month how the media spins the illegal immigration issue, comparing the coverage of Trump’s positions with those taken by leading Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.

In the face of increasing legal questions about the safety of secrets on the private e-mail server she used as secretary of State and of a vigorous intraparty challenge from Bernie Sanders, belief that Clinton is likely to be next year's Democratic presidential nominee has dropped noticeably over the past month.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Via: Rasmussen Reports

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How the 2016 Presidential Candidates Are Reacting to the Iran Deal

July 14, 2015 Republican White House hopefuls moved swiftly Tuesday morning to criticize the nuclear deal the United States and other world powers reached with Iran.

Sen. Lindsey Graham was the first to weigh in after the agreement was announced, tellingBloomberg the deal was "akin to declaring war on Israel and the Sunni Arabs." In an appearance on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Graham called the deal "the most dangerous, irresponsible step I have ever seen in the history of watching the Mideast." Graham also added that Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of State and frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, could negotiate a better deal than President Obama.

Here's what other presidential candidates have said so far.

(RELATED: Five Things To Know About the Iran Nuclear Deal)

CLINTON

In a brief press conference on Capitol Hill, Clinton called the deal "an important step," adding that the U.S. should now focus on preventing more of Iran's "bad actions."

"I think this is an important step that puts a lid on Iran's nuclear programs and it will enable us then to turn our attention as it must, to doing what we can with other partners in the region as beyond to try to prevent and contain Iran's other bad actions," Clinton said. "So all in all, I think we have to look at this seriously, evaluate it carefully, but I believe based on what I know now, this is an important step."

Clinton also said there are "a number of issues" that need to be addressed. "This agreement will have to be enforced vigorously, relentlessly," she added.

Clinton did not explicitly say whether she supported enforcement of the deal during her remarks. But House Democrats who met with her Tuesday morning said that sheunequivocally endorsed the agreement.

(RELATED: Hillary Clinton Gives 'Full Throated' Endorsement of Iran Deal, Congressman Says)

BUSH

Jeb Bush derided the agreement as a "dangerous, deeply flawed, and short sighted deal," saying that it still allows a path for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. 

"A comprehensive agreement should require Iran to verifiably abandon – not simply delay – its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability," Bush said in a statement. He added: "This isn't diplomacy – it is appeasement."

RUBIO

Sen. Marco Rubio warned in a statement that the deal "undermines our national security" and criticized Obama for negotiating "from a position of weakness."

"Failure by the President to obtain congressional support will tell the Iranians and the world that this is Barack Obama's deal, not an agreement with lasting support from the United States," Rubio's statement read. "It will then be left to the next President to return us to a position of American strength and re-impose sanctions on this despicable regime until it is truly willing to abandon its nuclear ambitions and is no longer a threat to international security."

(RELATED: Hill Battle Lines Quickly Drawn on Iran Deal)

WALKER

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who officially kicked off his campaign on Monday and made rejecting a deal with Iran part of his announcement speech, said the agreement "will be remembered as one of America's worst diplomatic failures." Walker called on congressional leaders and presidential candidates alike to reject it.

"In order to ensure the safety of America and our allies, the next president must restore bipartisan and international opposition to Iran's nuclear program while standing with our allies to roll back Iran's destructive influence across the Middle East," Walker said.

FIORINA

Carly Fiorina also voiced concern during in an appearance on CBS This Morning, saying "there is reason for suspicion" because Iran has not negotiated in good faith.

(RELATED: Obama's Heavy Sales Pitch on Iran Nuclear Deal)

"I've never negotiated an Iran nuclear deal, but I've negotiated a lot of high-stakes deals, and there are a couple of rules and every rule has been broken," Fiorina said. "If you want a good deal, you've got to walk away sometimes." 

SANTORUM

Rick Santorum slammed the deal on CNN Tuesday morning as a "a catastrophic capitulation" by the president, adding that it gives the Iranians "legitimacy" in the international community.  

"I would have ratcheted up those sanctions," Santorum said. "I would have continued to put pressure on this regime to capitulate. What we have here is not a capitulation."

HUCKABEE

Mike Huckabee took to Twitter to express his disapproval, saying that he would not rule out using military force in the region if he were in the Oval Office.

(RELATED: Benjamin Netanyahu: 'World Is a Much More Dangerous Place' With Iran Deal)

"Shame on the Obama admin for agreeing to a deal that empowers an evil Iranian regime to carry out its threat to 'wipe Israel off the map,' tweeted Huckabee, who went on to say, "As president, I will stand with Israel and keep all options on the table, including military force, to topple the terrorist Iranian regime."

CHRISTIE

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said in a statement that Obama us "playing a dangerous game with our national security, warning that the deal "will lead to a nuclear Iran and, then, a nuclearized Middle East."

The deal threatens Israel, it threatens the United States, and it turns 70 years of nuclear policy on its head," Christie said. "I urge Republicans and Democrats in Congress to put aside politics and act in the national interest. Vote to disapprove this deal in numbers that will override the President's threatened veto."

(RELATED: Obama Hopes History Will Prove Him Right on Iran)

SANDERS

Sen. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, congratulated Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry on striking an agreement.

"This is a victory for diplomacy over saber-rattling and could keep the United States from being drawn into another never-ending war in the Middle East," Sanders said in a statement.

JINDAL

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal specifically called on Clinton to oppose the nuclear a deal in a statement released Tuesday morning.

"Secretary Clinton should be a voice of reason and oppose this deal," Jindal said. "While Secretary Clinton has been the architect of President Obama's foreign policy, she can do the right thing and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and oppose this deal."

CRUZ

Sen. Ted Cruz also attacked the deal, arguing that the agreement will 'legitimize" and "perpetuate" Iran's nuclear program. He called on Americans to voice their cocnerns about the deal to their elected officials. 

"Even by the low standards of the Joint Plan of Action, this is a staggeringly bad deal," Cruz said. "It is a fundamental betrayal of the security of the United States and of our closest allies, first and foremost Israel."

(RELATED: Why the Iran Deal Makes Obama's Critics So Angry)

CARSON

Ben Carson warned the deal is "almost certain to prove an historic mistake with potentially deadly consequences."

"Without anywhere anytime surprise inspections, a full accounting of Iran's past secret nuclear arms pursuits, elimination of Iran's uranium stockpiles and the lifting of any sanctions only upon verification of Iranian compliance, this is not a good deal, but a recipe for disaster and the first fateful step toward a frenzied nuclear arms race in the Middle East," Carson said.

PERRY

Rick Perry called the deal "one of the most destructive foreign policy decisions in my lifetime." He also said that one of his first acts as president would be to rescind the agreement, and outlined other steps would take to deal with Iran. 

"I will order a review of Iran's compliance with the deal, and an evaluation of Iran's continued sponsorship of terror over the timeframe of the agreement," Perry said. "I will move to ensure that the arms embargo—and, specifically, the ballistic missile embargo — remain in place until Iran verifiably demonstrates that it desires to act as a stabilizing force in the region."

Via: National Journal

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How The Republican Presidential Candidates Are Responding To The Iran Deal

The Republicans running for president are blasting the Obama administration over the nuclear deal announced with Iran Tuesday.

“President Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran will be remembered as one of America’s worst diplomatic failures,” said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. “The deal allows Tehran to dismantle U.S. and international sanctions without dismantling its illicit nuclear infrastructure—giving Iran’s nuclear weapons capability an American stamp of approval.”

“This is the most dangerous, irresponsible step I have ever seen in the history of watching the Mideast,” South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said during an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“Shame on the Obama administration for agreeing to a deal that empowers an evil Iranian regime to carry out its threat to ‘wipe Israel off the map’ and bring ‘death to America,’” former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said. “John Kerry should have long ago gotten up on his crutches, walked out of the sham talks, and went straight to Jerusalem to stand next to Benjamin Netanyahu and declared that America will stand with Israel and the other sane governments of the Middle East instead of with the terrorist government of Iran.”

“I have said from the beginning of this process that I would not support a deal with Iran that allows the mullahs to retain the ability to develop nuclear weapons, threaten Israel, and continue their regional expansionism and support for terrorism,” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said. “Based on what we know thus far, I believe that this deal undermines our national security.”

“The nuclear agreement announced by the Obama Administration today is a dangerous, deeply flawed, and short sighted deal,” said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. “A comprehensive agreement should require Iran to verifiably abandon – not simply delay – its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.”

“The deal threatens Israel, it threatens the United States, and it turns 70 years of nuclear policy on its head,” New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said. “I urge Republicans and Democrats in Congress to put aside politics and act in the national interest. Vote to disapprove this deal in numbers that will override the President’s threatened veto.”

“If Secretary Clinton goes along with President Obama’s efforts to appease Iran, it will make our enemies stronger, endanger our ally Israel and trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that will destabilize the region,” said Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

“The Iran deal announced today with fanfare and another heaping dose of false hope is almost certain to prove an historic mistake with potentially deadly consequences,” former neurosurgeon Ben Carson said.

“President Obama’s decision to sign a nuclear deal with Iran is one of the most destructive foreign policy decisions in my lifetime. For decades to come, the world will have to deal with the repercussions of this agreement, which will actually make it easier for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon,” said former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

President Obama made an early morning statement at the White House, saying: “Today, because America negotiated from a position of strength and principle, we have stopped the spread of nuclear weapons in this region.”

Via: Daily Caller

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GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SLAM OBAMA’S DEAL WITH IRAN

GOP presidential candidates are slamming the Obama Administration’s deal with Iran that was announced Tuesday.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) said:

Shame on the Obama administration for agreeing to a deal that empowers an evil Iranian regime to carry out its threat to “wipe Israel off the map” and bring “death to America.” John Kerry should have long ago gotten up on his crutches, walked out of the sham talks, and went straight to Jerusalem to stand next to Benjamin Netanyahu and declared that America will stand with Israel and the other sane governments of the Middle East instead of with the terrorist government of Iran.

Huckabee addded: “As president, I will stand with Israel and keep all options on the table, including military force, to topple the terrorist Iranian regime and defeat the evil forces of radical Islam.”

Carly Fiorina appeared on CBS Tuesday morning and discussed President Obama’s comments on the deal.

“He says it makes a nuclear arms race less likely – our Arab allies have said just the opposite, so has Israel. So… there is reason for suspicion here that is not partisan.”

Fiorina said the allies think it makes an arms race more likely because Iran has demonstrated bad behavior for more than 30 years and both China and Russia have an interest in opening up Iran’s economy. Fiorina said the Administration caved.

Meanwhile, “This is not going to sell to the Congress or the American people, it won’t sell to the Arabs, certainly not going to sell to the Israelis,” 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

47%

 said on CNN’s “New Day.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

80%

 echoed Graham on Congressional approval saying, “I expect that a significant majority in Congress will share my skepticism of this agreement and vote it down.”

Rubio posted on Twitter, “It will be left to the next President to return us to a position of American strength and re-impose sanctions on this despicable regime.”

The most recent GOP candidate to enter the race – Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) – said this deal would be remembered as one of America’s worst diplomatic failures:

The deal allows Tehran to dismantle U.S. and international sanctions without dismantling its illicit nuclear infrastructure—giving Iran’s nuclear weapons capability an American stamp of approval. In crafting this agreement, President Obama has abandoned the bipartisan principles that have guided our nonproliferation policy and kept the world safe from nuclear danger for decades. Instead of making the world safer, this deal will likely lead to a nuclear arms race in the world’s most dangerous region. What’s worse, the deal rewards the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism with a massive financial windfall, which Iran will use to further threaten our interests and key allies, especially Israel.

Walker called on Congress and all presidential candidates – including Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton – to repudiate the deal.

Iran’s Supreme Leader should know that a future American president will not be bound by this diplomatic retreat. Undoing the damage caused by this deal won’t be easy. But when the United States leads, and has a president who isn’t eager to embrace Iran, the world will follow. In order to ensure the safety of America and our allies, the next president must restore bipartisan and international opposition to Iran’s nuclear program while standing with our allies to roll back Iran’s destructive influence across the Middle East.

CNN reported that former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum responded to the deal by saying:

We’ve legitimized them. We’ve given them legitimacy in the international community something that they deeply wanted here, and they’ve done basically nothing in exchange for that. They come out of this a much, much stronger and I believe more virulent state with very, very few responsibility, in fact nothing in this deal curbs their terrorism. There’s nothing that says that they have to cease any type of terrorist activity.

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) said Obama has made two years of humiliating concessions – including the deal with Iran.

“He should have walked away. Iran joins the sad list of countries were America’s red lines have been crossed. The president is playing a dangerous game with our national security, and the deal as structured will lead to a nuclear Iran and, then, a nuclearized Middle East. The deal threatens Israel, it threatens the United States, and it turns 70 years of nuclear policy on its head,” Christie posted on Twitter.

Christie urged Congress to reject the deal.

Dr. Ben Carson did not post an update on Twitter as of Tuesday morning on the final Iran deal, but on Sunday Carson posted, “Reagan:”Trust, but verify”. Re: ‪#IranTalks, we need to verify ‪@POTUS concessions! ‪@BarackObama come clean, show all cards to‪#WeThePeople.”

Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) also did not comment as of Tuesday on the final deal, but posted on Twitter Monday, “The Obama Administration’s negotiating strategy with Iran is called appeasement. We should walk away.”

The deal now goes to Congress which has 60 days to review and either approve or reject the final deal with Iran.

Via: Breitbart

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With Walker's Entry, GOP 2016 Field Now Numbers 17

Sunday, 12 Jul 2015 08:32 AM

Who yelled "everybody into the pool?"

After all the candidate announcements, after all the speculation about who'd go first and who's yet to jump in, one question remains in this summer BEFORE the election year: Why are so many Republicans running for president?

Surely, the soon-to-be-17 announced GOP candidates don't all think they will become president.

But it's easy for a politician to get caught up in the hype and yell "cowabunga!" in a year when there's no incumbent seeking re-election and no Republican who seems to have an inside track to the nomination.

Plus, it's easier than ever to make a credible run for president, thanks to the equalizing effects of social media and digital fundraising, and with looser federal rules in place on raising money.

The apt question for an ambitious Republican this year seems to be: Well, why not?

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker adds his name to the list on Monday, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore to follow in coming weeks, bringing the total by summer's end to at least 17.

"Every now and then you have an election cycle that is defined by what can be best described as me-too-ism," says Mo Elleithee, executive director of Georgetown's Institute of Politics and Public Service and a onetime spokesman for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.

With any number of theoretical pathways to the GOP nomination, second-tier candidates may well have surveyed the field and said to themselves, "Why can't I burst into that top tier?" says Elleithee. "Everybody is sitting there with their advisers, slicing and dicing the electorate, and either finding a potential path or deluding themselves into finding a potential path."

Tony Fratto, a Washington consultant who worked for President George W. Bush, says there's far more than delusions motivating candidates. Beyond the generally easier mechanics of running for office, he says, there are all sorts of incentives to run that have nothing to do with actually being president.

"You have the opportunity to become a personality in a relatively short period of time," says Fratto. "You get on the national stage, your name ID is elevated and that can translate into writing books, giving speeches and getting an opportunity to go on TV." Not to mention a potential job as vice president or in the Cabinet.

It worked for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who's running again after parlaying his losing candidacy in the 2008 primaries into political celebrity, including TV and radio shows and book deals.

The should-I-run equation is different on the Democratic side, where Clinton is dominant, but even there, four other notable candidates have joined the against-the-odds race.

A look at some of the reasons so many candidates are running this year:

WAITING FOR A STUMBLE

Some candidates run just in case. If top-tier candidates suddenly falter, these challengers want to make sure they're positioned to step right up.

These types "genuinely think things can fall apart" for the top candidates, says Princeton historian Julian Zelizer.

He puts New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kasich in that category.

In Christie's case, says Zelizer, "I think part of him hopes that people will see how great he is — according to him" if an opening emerges.

THE OBAMA EFFECT

The election of a junior Illinois senator with a funny name as president in 2008 has heartened candidates who might not otherwise have thought of themselves as ready to run.

"What Barack Obama proved in 2008 is that you don't need all that much experience," says Fratto. "You can take on a presumed front-runner, and you can raise money and improve your name ID very quickly. That possibility wasn't imaginable in the past."

Obama's precedent has to hearten Marco Rubio from Florida and Ted Cruz from Texas, both 44-year-old freshman senators, and 52-year-old rookie Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

TAKING TURNS

Senior politicians may look at relative newcomers who've gotten into the race, and think, "Wait, it's my turn."

Elleithee envisions veterans such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Kasich asking themselves, "Why should these young up-and-comers be seen as more credible than me?"

IDEA GUYS

Some candidates run to get their ideas in the mix even if their candidacies face long odds.

Graham is pushing the Republicans to focus on national security. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is pressing Democrats to do more to address income inequality.

BIG MONEY

In the aftermath of the Supreme Court's 2010 ruling that loosened fundraising rules, says Zelizer, "all you need is a few wealthy people and you can be a presidential candidate." Candidates may not have enough money to go the distance, but a supportive billionaire or super PAC can bankroll a candidacy that otherwise might not go far.

Casino titan Sheldon Adelson's millions kept Newt Gingrich's 2008 candidacy afloat long after it otherwise would have gone under. Super PACs will file paperwork later this month that will help show who's benefiting from big donors this time around.

SMALL DOLLARS

No sugar daddy? No problem.

Online fundraising and social media have made it cheaper and easier for candidates to haul in lots of small contributions.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is relying on small contributions to propel his GOP campaign. And on the Democratic side, Sanders' upstart challenge to Clinton is pulling in millions mostly through small donors on the Internet

.

BUILDING THE "ME" BRAND

Businessman-showman Donald Trump has to know he's not going to be president.

His self-promotional candidacy helps keep him in the news, something he's clearly relishing even if it's triggered a backlash that's going to cost him.

Companies and organizations are lining up to cut ties to Trump after his much-criticized comments about Mexican immigrants.

Via: Newsmax

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