Highlights
- Tropical Storm Erika is located near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but is still very poorly organized.
- Tropical storm warnings continue in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos and have been extended into the central Bahamas and the south coast of the Dominican Republic.
- Deadly, destructive flooding has been reported in Dominica, in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Strong wind gusts were reported in St. Croix and St. Thomas.
- Erika will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to drought-suffering Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispanola.
- There is potential for Erika to dissipate as a tropical cyclone over the mountains of the Dominican Republic.
- Erika's future track and intensity late this weekend and beyond remains highly uncertain regarding potential U.S. impact, which could occur anywhere from the Florida peninsula to the Carolinas.
Current Status
Erika Watches/Warnings
A watch means the respective conditions are possible within 48 hours. Warnings mean those conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Current Wind Shear Analysis
Wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction with height, is harmful for tropical cyclones. Higher levels of wind shear are depicted in pink, purple and red contours in this analysis.
Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands Radar
Erika Struggles, But Still Soaks the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Erika continues to struggle against a hostile environment in the Caribbean Sea, and faces an uphill climb to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone over the next 12-24 hours.
Satellite imagery continues to show Erika's convection (thunderstorms) displaced east of the center of circulation.
The culprit for this disheveled appearance of Erika is strong westerly to southwesterly wind shear, which has been consistently very strong, compared to average, in the Caribbean Sea this hurricane season, so far.
If anything, Erika will be moving into an environment of higher wind shear over the next day or so.
That's not the only barrier Erika faces. The circulation is likely track over the mountains of the Dominican Republic (Pico Duarte is over 10,000 feet), potentially disrupting or ripping apart its circulation.
So these twin nemeses (wind shear, mountains of D.R./land interaction) may both spell the ultimate demise of Erika as a tropical cyclone.
But that doesn't mean there may not be serious impacts. Regardless of Erika's degree or organization, locally heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be threats the next several days.
A band of torrential rain resulted in deadly flash flooding on the island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Roads were washed out, homes were damaged and an airport flooded.
(MORE: Flooding Hits Dominica)
Canefield Airport near the capital of Roseau, Dominica, picked up 12.64 inches (322.4 millimeters) of rain in a 12-hour period ending just before 2 p.m. EDT Thursday.
Bands of locally heavy rain will spread from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispanola, to parts of Cuba and the Bahamas by Saturday.
Despite the long-term Caribbean drought, rain rates of several inches per hour could trigger flash flooding and mud/rockslides. Flood watches were posted for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said some parts of the island had already picked up 3 to 4.5 inches of rainfall in Erika's rainbands as of early Friday morning.
(INTERACTIVE: Caribbean Radar)
Heavy rainfall over the mountains of Hispanola may also trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Historically, some of the highest death tolls with Caribbean tropical cyclones have occurred in these situations.
Tropical storm force winds were reported across portions the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday. The highest gust was 62 mph at St. Croix shortly before 9 p.m. EDT Thursday. St. Thomas registered a gust to 48 mph. The peak gust, so far, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has been only 32 mph as of early Friday morning.
Erika may continue to produce tropical storm force winds, mainly in gusts, primarily on the east and north sides of its
