On Friday
April 6 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report the March unemployment
numbers. We should be reminded again that it does not even come close to
painting the real picture of what's going on. Regardless of the results
the democrats have only one way to spin it and as much as we like to hear
positive news when it comes to the economy, it still smells fishy. The four week moving average for new claims
according to the BLS is 365,000 vs. 401,000 for the same period in 2011.
The December unemployment rate was 8.7% and dropped to 8.3% for January and
February. This only tells part of the story as 1.2 million employable people
dropped off the radar or just stopped looking. The participation rate which
measures the labor force as a percent
of the civilian noninstitutional population climbed slightly to
63.9% in February from 63.7% in January.
The participation rate is the lowest since 1984. In the 2011 the
civilian population rose by almost 3.6 million, yet the labor force only rose
1.1 million. Those not in the labor force rose by almost 2.5 million. If people
were not dropping out of the labor force the unemployment rate would be well
over 11%. According to Gallup, the underemployment rate is hovering around 18%.
It will come
as no surprise to anyone that at the rate we are creating jobs it will be at
least three years before we even come close to creating enough jobs to get it down
to the level of the Bush years (4.0 to 5.8%) (BLS). Gallup is predicting a rate
of 8.6% and In-Trade is looking at 8.8% for March 2012. This will not be good news for the Obama
Administration who is coming off a week of missteps, misspeaks and blunders. One
can only wonder when the hemorrhaging is going to stop.
