Wednesday, May 2, 2012

What’s in the Cards for April’s Unemployment Numbers?

It will not be good news as the economy continues to  sputters along at an anemic rate.  A more detailed look at March tells us that layoff’s continue across the board as employers took 1, 273 layoff actions involving 121,310 workers across all categories. The number of new unemployment claims in April rose to a 4 week moving average of 381,750, up 6,250 from the previous week.

It was also widely reported this week that half the people with bachelor’s degrees cannot find work.  An analysis shows that over 53% are jobless or underemployed which does not give us any indication that the job market is improving.  The labor force participation rate which is still below 64% is at its lowest rate in more than 10 years. 


Jobless rates in March were down in 30 states and up in 9, but most of the decrease can be attributed  to those people who have stopped looking for work and are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.  The trueunemployment rate is in the neighborhood of 11%.  The average length of unemployment remains at a high of 39.4 weeks. Over 42% of the unemployed have been out of work and looking for employment for more that 6 months.  African American unemployment stayed at 14%, well above the average.

There is no indication that the job market will be getting any better in the near future with predictions abound that theunemployment rate will only to 7.9% by the end of the year.  The unemployment rate when Obama took office was 7.8% and it was promised that the stimulus package would bring this rate down to 6%.  This does not fare well for this administration with an election right around the corner. The April unemployment numbers will be released by the Labor Department on Friday May 4, 2012.

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