There’s nothing Democrats can do about gerrymandering, so here’s a radical proposal: Let’s turn our attention to whether Democrats are poised to capitalize on the opportunities that do exist in the House. Because for all the talk about gerrymandering, there are still 17 House Republicans in districts carried by President Obama. And there are another 17 districts that Romney carried by less than 3 points, and still a handful more of even redder districts where weak GOP incumbents won reelection by a narrow margin. If Democrats are going to ride a wave of public frustration with the shutdown, the wave would hit these districts first—and Democrats would need to be poised to ride it. Right now, they’re not.
Last time, Democrats didn’t even come close in most of the districts that Republicans continue to hold that also voted for President Obama. Only one was decided by less than 5 points.
Republican incumbents outperformed Romney in each of the 43 districts where Romney won by less than 5 points. And usually, those Republican incumbents outperformed Romney by a significant margin. They just weren’t close races (another reason why gerrymandering probably didn’t represent the GOP’s margin of victory in the House).
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