Is it all about “the bounce?”
Of course we are referring to the post-convention bounce in the polls typically seen immediately after the convention closes. Do political parties and presidential candidates really benefit from three days of speeches and rallies? The Republicans should know the answer to that question a week from today, and the Democrats will find out on September 9th — the Sunday after they wrap up in Charlotte.
One the eve of the GOP National convention in Tampa, many in the news media are speculating about the size of the “bounce” in Mitt Romney’s poll numbers after he is officially nominated by the Republicans, accepts that nomination, and delivers his speech to close the convention on Thursday night.
Of course there are statistics to support just about any theory you might want to offer on behalf of either candidate, no matter how big or how small their bounce.
Gerhard Peters and John Wolley of the American Presidency Project studied the last 12 presidential conventions, each candidate’s bounce, and the results of the November elections.
From 1964 to 2008:
Six of the bounce winners went on win the White House
Five of the bounce winners LOST the election.
And in closest presidential election in American history, the 2000 Bush and Gore tied — both men generated an 8% post convention bounce in the polls.
1 comment:
birth certificate .??!
No tax MEANS No American....off-shore mitt!
No tax: give back your certificate Mitt!
Mitt is Mormon priest he pays to God only.
Maybe Obama also makes crap, but he is authentic, guine.
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