Showing posts with label Conventions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conventions. Show all posts

Friday, July 29, 2016

Whew: Hillary’s convention speech (probably) drew a smaller TV audience than Trump’s

Thank God. I think Trump can handle losing the election, but losing a ratings battle to a dial tone like Hillary Clinton might have broken the guy. He’ll be okay now.
The downside: He’ll be mentioning his ratings win not just every day until Election Day but likely every day for the rest of his life.
Clinton’s Thursday night acceptance speech at the DNC averaged 28 million viewers across the six biggest cable and broadcast channels.
Trump’s speech at the RNC one week earlier averaged 30 million viewers across the same channels…
CNN was by far the highest-rated channel on Thursday, averaging 7.5 million viewers during Clinton’s speech. MSNBC was #2 with 5.3 million viewers. NBC was #3 with 4.5 million.
These are the early numbers. The final figures later today will be slightly better, but probably not enough to erase Trump’s advantage. All three previous nights of the Democratic convention outdrew their Republican counterparts, by the way, and Hillary outdrew Trump last night on CNN and MSNBC. Trump’s margin of ratings victory comes entirely from Fox News, which blew the roof off last Thursday for his speech with 9.3 million viewers but clocked just three million yesterday for Clinton. Did Fox get a big jump for Trump because right-wingers who were already voting for him decided to tune into their favorite network to watch his speech? Or was it a more politically mixed audience that gravitated to Fox last week on the assumption that the Republican news channel is naturally the place to watch the Republican nominee speak? The answer to that question would give us a clue about Trump’s crossover appeal in November.
Obama’s 2012 speech outdrew both Trump and Clinton, but if you missed last week’s postabout convention ratings over time, read that for all of the caveats about shrinking ratings in an age with multifarious media options. Given Trump’s celebrity and the curiosity factor surrounding him, it’s arguably no surprise that he’d draw more of an audience than a ho-hum Democratic nominee. But Hillary’s no ordinary nominee: She’s the first woman major-party nominee in history. The fact that she couldn’t bring out enough viewers to top him despite having a historic storyline to help boost interest is a comment on how “meh” she is to the public. Apart from her husband she’s the biggest known quantity in American politics, the ultimate rerun. And like I said in last night’s convention thread, who wants to watch a rerun when there’s so much else on TV — even when that rerun is a Very Special Episode?

Sunday, August 26, 2012


Is it all about “the bounce?”
Of course we are referring to the post-convention bounce in the polls typically seen immediately after the convention closes. Do political parties and presidential candidates really benefit from three days of speeches and rallies? The Republicans should know the answer to that question a week from today, and the Democrats will find out on September 9th — the Sunday after they wrap up in Charlotte.
One the eve of the GOP National convention in Tampa, many in the news media are speculating about the size of the “bounce” in Mitt Romney’s poll numbers after he is officially nominated by the Republicans, accepts that nomination, and delivers his speech to close the convention on Thursday night.
Of course there are statistics to support just about any theory you might want to offer on behalf of either candidate, no matter how big or how small their bounce.
Gerhard Peters and John Wolley of the American Presidency Project studied the last 12 presidential conventions, each candidate’s bounce, and the results of the November elections.
From 1964 to 2008:
Six of the bounce winners went on win the White House
Five of the bounce winners LOST the election.
And in closest presidential election in American history, the 2000 Bush and Gore tied — both men generated an 8% post convention bounce in the polls.
Romney or Obama    Which one will get the biggest convention bounce?

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