Pennsylvania: Republicans Trouncing Dems In Absentee Ballots By 19 Points…

This morning President Obama’s campaign indicated they are going on the air in Pennsylvania and sending Joe Biden to the state trying to protect a state that just one week ago was considered to be safe ground.  One possible reason? The enormous GOP edge in absentee ballot returns in the state, creating an enormous and unexpected hole for the President’s campaign to dig out of. 

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.

The Romney Victory team has been on the ground in Pennsylvania for months with over 60 staff and dozens of offices. We have made over 5 million volunteer voter contacts including over 1 million volunteer door knocks across Pennsylvania. That voter contact is paying off in the absentee ballot returns and clearly the President’s campaign sees it in their numbers. That’s why they are playing defense in the Keystone state as Governor Romney’s momentum allows us to expand the map.

PENNSYLVANIA AB RETURNS
Party	2008 AB Votes Cast		2012 AB Votes Cast		Change
DEM	132,170	44.70%	42,013	36.42%	-8.28%
REP	137,850	46.62%	63,717	55.24%	+8.62%
TOTAL	295,659	+1.92%	115,346	+18.82%	+16.90%

 Via: GOP.com

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Pennsylvania Ripe for the Picking

Pennsylvania is approaching the Nov. 6 presidential election with 3 percent fewer registered voters than in fall 2008, an unusual slip that political analysts blame on a drop in voter enthusiasm across the country.

Democrats especially experienced a slump, bleeding 229,396 registered voters in Pennsylvania since the last presidential race, state data show. Republicans are down 112,796 registrants, but voters unconnected to either major party grew by 7 percent, or 73,043, according to Pennsylvania Department of State figures. As of Monday the state had 8,487,093 voters, down from 8,755,588 in November 2008, despite a 2 percent population gain. Democrats still hold a 50-37 percentage registration edge over Republicans, down one point from 2008.

The registration deadline for the election was Oct. 9.

“This year, we don’t have such a sense that this election is going to make history the way we did in 2008,” said Pat Dunham, chairwoman of the political science department at Duquesne University. “Enthusiasm in general may have dampened a little. Three-and-a-half years after electing Barack Obama, we see it’s not that easy to change things. ”

For Democrats in particular, “there’s not the same excitement” as four years ago, when the party tallied thousands of registrations, said political analyst Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“There are probably no states that have had incredible increases in voter registration” this time, Skelley said.

Swing states that are losing that status may experience declines in voter registration when candidate visits and advertising shift to areas more in play, political scientists said.

Pennsylvania, which typically votes Democrat for presidents, joined Michigan, Indiana and Missouri to become less of a swing state, said Keystone College professor Jeff Brauer.

Via: Trib Live

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Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

A  new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.

Susquehanna's automated poll of 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

"Republicans haven't been able to do that in 20 years," Lee said. "Romney has made some major inroads."

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Via: Washington Examiner

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