NH towns cast first ballots - IT'S A TIE

DIXVILLE NOTCH, NH -In the tiny town of Dixville Notch New Hampshire, the presidential vote ended in a historical first.

In a tradition that started more than 40 years ago. The town of ten registered voters all cast their ballots right after midnight on election day, and the results are tallied immediately.

This year, President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney each received five votes from Dixville Notch.

The tie is a historical first for the midnight vote.

And in another tiny New Hampshire town -- Hart's Location -- the President picked up a win.

The earliest voters can go to the polls in other communities is 6 a.m., with the last polls closing at 8 p.m.

Via: WCAX.com

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Pennsylvania: Republicans Trouncing Dems In Absentee Ballots By 19 Points…

This morning President Obama’s campaign indicated they are going on the air in Pennsylvania and sending Joe Biden to the state trying to protect a state that just one week ago was considered to be safe ground.  One possible reason? The enormous GOP edge in absentee ballot returns in the state, creating an enormous and unexpected hole for the President’s campaign to dig out of. 

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.

The Romney Victory team has been on the ground in Pennsylvania for months with over 60 staff and dozens of offices. We have made over 5 million volunteer voter contacts including over 1 million volunteer door knocks across Pennsylvania. That voter contact is paying off in the absentee ballot returns and clearly the President’s campaign sees it in their numbers. That’s why they are playing defense in the Keystone state as Governor Romney’s momentum allows us to expand the map.

PENNSYLVANIA AB RETURNS
Party	2008 AB Votes Cast		2012 AB Votes Cast		Change
DEM	132,170	44.70%	42,013	36.42%	-8.28%
REP	137,850	46.62%	63,717	55.24%	+8.62%
TOTAL	295,659	+1.92%	115,346	+18.82%	+16.90%

 Via: GOP.com

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Poll: Israeli Jews Favor Romney By Almost 3-1 Margin…

Israeli Jews prefer Republican candidate Mitt Romney over US President Barack Obama by an almost 3:1 margin, according to a "Peace Index" poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University that was released Sunday.

The polling figures stand in stark contrast to polls taken of American Jews, which show they prefer Obama by a similarly wide margin. An American Jewish Committee poll at the end of September showed US Jews favoring Obama over Romney 63%-27%.

The "Peace Index" poll also puts Israel at odds with most of the rest of the world, which – according to a BBC poll published last week of nearly 22,000 people in 21 countries -- found Obama favored by an average of 50%, with only 9% for Romney. The Democrat was the preferred candidate in every country polled, except for Pakistan.

Asked "in terms of Israeli interests, who would be preferable to win the elections next month in the US,"  57.2% of Israeli Jews said Romney, while only 21.5% said Obama.

Among Israeli Arabs, the numbers were reversed, with 45% opting for Obama, and 15% for Romney.

A similar Peace Index poll in July found that Israelis felt that Romney "assigned more importance to defending Israel's national interest" than Obama by a 2:1 ratio: 40% for Romney to 19% for Obama.

Via: The Jerusalem Post

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POLL: ROMNEY'S OHIO FAVORABLES UP 30 SINCE FEBRUARY

Public Policy Polling announced Saturday afternoon that presidential candidate Mitt Romney has seen a 30-point upward swing in his favorability ratings in the state of Ohio since February.

The numbers were juxtaposed in a succinct Twitter update:

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls

In Februrary Mitt Romney's favorability in Ohio was 28/56. Now it's 49/47. 30 point net positive shift over the course of the year

20 Oct 12

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The 21-point increase in those who favor the former Massachusetts Governor suggests more than half of the 16% undecided from the February figure, once exposed to him directly through the Republican National Convention and presidential debates, have adopted a positive view of the GOP challenger. 

Even if all those who are currently undecided come from the 9% who used to have an unfavorable view of Romney, that would mean all 16% of former undecideds have swung to a positive view of the candidate along with 5% of those formerly unfavorable.

The complete poll shows Romney with a 47% favorable rating among independents, 41% unfavorable, and 12% unsure. Among that same group, the February numbers had Romney at 30% favorable and 53% unfavorable -- a 29-point net positive shift.

Via: Breitbart

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GALLUP POLL: Gov. Romney’s Lead Over President Obama Is Outside ‘Margin of Error’ for First Time

Check out the numbers in this latest, potentially game-changing Gallup poll. The poll taken among likely voters shows the GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Mitt Romney leading over President Obama, 51 to 45 percent — and for the first time, the advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error.

Do you think Romney can maintain the lead through the next debate? Let us know!

Via: Fox Insider

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[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study

The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned. 

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president. 

CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, who spoke with Campus Reform at length on Tuesday, said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.

Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.

“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.

That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000. 

Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election. 

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” he said. 

Berry also acknowledged that while his poll is accurate, however, that his model does not “calculate a specific confidence level for the Electoral College result.”

The study, conducted every four years, is non-political and employs historical data as well as current unemployment numbers and income levels.

In the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, a recent poll reveals that a majority of voters believe the health of the economy is the most important issue of this election.

Additionally, more than double of the respondents in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll trust Romney over Obama to fix the economic state of our country (63%-29%).

Along with the economy, unemployment adds an element which only increases the probability of the CU prediction. 

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. 

Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder adds, “the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

The Colorado model has had such accuracy over the years, these results have received no criticism from academic peers, according to Berry.

Via: Campus Reform

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Princeton Economist: Obama Campaign Is Misrepresenting My Study on Romney's Tax Plan

Last night, the Obama campaign blasted out another email claiming that Mitt Romney's tax plan would either require raising taxes on the middle class or blowing a hole in the deficit. "Even the studies that Romney has cited to claim his plan adds up still show he would need to raise middle-class taxes," said the Obama campaign press release. "In fact, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein and Princeton economist Harvey Rosen both concede that paying for Romney’s tax cuts would require large tax increases on families making between $100,000 and $200,000."

But that's not true. Princeton professor Harvey Rosen tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD in an email that the Obama campaign is misrepresenting his paper on Romney's tax plan:

I can’t tell exactly how the Obama campaign reached that characterization of my work.  It might be that they assume that Governor Romney wants to keep the taxes from the Affordable Care Act in place, despite the fact that the Governor has called for its complete repeal.  The main conclusion of my study is that  under plausible assumptions, a proposal along the lines suggested by Governor Romney can both be revenue neutral and keep the net tax burden on taxpayers with incomes above $200,000 about the same.  That is, an increase in the tax burden on lower and middle income individuals is not required in order to make the overall plan revenue neutral. 

You can check the math that shows Romney's plan is mathematically possible here.

Via: Weekly Standard

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Heritage Expert Confounds the “Fact Checkers” on Welfare Reform

“Obama’s Palace Guard,” Mark Hemingway’s Weekly Standard cover story exposing fact-checkers for willful complicity in the gutting of welfare reform, is a must read for anyone who cares about the state of the news media—and for those who plan to watch, cover, or participate in the presidential debates.

Hemingway meticulously details the checkosphere’s studied indifference—with rare exceptions—to the plain facts. In 4,000 words, he lays bare the media fact-checkers’ almost comical avoidance of the one expert who could help them understand how the Obama Administration is dismantling “workfare”: The Heritage Foundation’s Robert Rector, who helped write the work requirements in the 1996 welfare reform law and just published his latest paper on the outrage.

PolitiFact, Hemingway concludes, came off as more interested in consulting liberal critics of welfare reform and dismissing Rector, conservatives in Congress, and Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) for daring to suggest the left would want to undo the workfare program it opposed from the start:

PolitiFact said [Rector’s] concerns should be dismissed for no other reason than they are at odds with the Obama administration’s spin. PolitiFact didn’t even address the fact that Rector … was the source of the charge the Obama administration is gutting welfare reform or that he helped write the welfare reform law.

The Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler gets some credit from Hemingway for awarding Bill Clinton two out of four “Pinocchios” for stretching the truth in his speech defending Obama’s move to administratively undo welfare reform.

Via: The Foundry

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HOW TO DEBATE PRESIDENT OBAMA

The upcoming Presidential debate on October 3 is the most important single event in Mitt Romney’s political career.

The elite news media is doing everything they can to convince Romney’s supporters that the election is lost.

Americans will be tuning in that evening to see if Governor Romney turns this media narrative on its head.

This will be the first time Americans will see President Obama and his challenger side by side.

This will be the largest audience to watch the two men side by side without editing or distortion by the media. If Romney wins this debate, the next debate will have an even larger audience. If he loses it, the elite media will be giddy in its intense reporting of an Obama victory and the Obama team will be giddy and energized by the proclamation of victory.

The media will attempt to pounce on a strong Obama debate and try to bring back up Bain Capital, 47 percent, income tax returns and a host of wounds as perceived by the left.

On the other hand, a Romney victory will destroy the false media narrative that is determined to avoid President Obama’s failure. Suddenly, unemployment over 8 percent, gasoline rising from $1.89 when Obama was elected to $3.89 today, massive deficits, Obamacare, weakness in foreign policy and a host of other failures will rush to the forefront.

Obviously a lot depends on this debate.

And much of the outcome depends on events and actions which are not part of normal debate preparation.

I have been observing Presidential debates since the very first debates in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.

Sometimes the outcome of a debate can turn on the most trivial thing.

Richard Nixon vs. John Kennedy

In 1960 then-Vice President Richard Nixon turned down professional makeup.

Television was still black and white and the lights were often harsh. Nixon thought a light application of a roll on makeup stick would suffice. His judgment was further flawed by two realities he ignored. First, Nixon naturally had a strong beard and the absence of makeup would give him a five o’clock shadow even if he shaved just before the debate. Second, he had hurt his leg, gotten infected, spent several days in the hospital and lost weight. The result was that he looked gaunt.

Via: Human Events

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OBAMA TAKES DIG AT ROMNEY'S UPBRINGING

President Obama portrayed Mitt Romney on Tuesday as an out-of-touch elitist while pitching education reform in front of college students at a campaign event at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio.

Obama focused on a comment Romney made earlier this year in which he said if someone wants to go to college or start a business, he or she could just “borrow money if you have to from your parents.”

“When a high school student in Youngstown asked him what he would do to make college more affordable for families like his, Governor Romney didn’t say anything about grants or loan programs that are critical to millions of students to get a college education; nothing about work-study programs, or rising college tuition; he didn't say a word about community colleges, or how important higher education is to America’s economic future,” Obama said. “He said the best thing you can do is shop around.”

“That’s it — that’s his plan. That’s his answer to young people who are trying to figure out to go to college and make sure they don't have a mountain of debt — shop around and borrow money from your parents."

Taking a dig at Romney's wealthy upbringing, Obama added: “Not everybody has parents who have the money to lend."

Via: The Hill

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