More Democratic Losses Could Be on the Horizon

For Democrats anxious to turn the page from a terrible 2014 cycle, the news might get worse before it gets better.

Last fall, Democrats lost control of the Senate and fell further into the minority in the House, but pinned much of the blame on low turnout in the midterm elections. Party strategists were more than ready to look ahead to 2016, when the presidential race should boost turnout among Democratic constituencies. But at least one race this fall could dampen some of the Democratic enthusiasm heading into next year.

Democrats should have the advantage in Kentucky’s race for governor in November, since term-limited Gov. Steven L. Beshear is popular and Democrats have held the governorship for all but four of the last 43 years. The party has rallied behind Jack Conway, the telegenic state attorney general with two statewide victories under his belt, while Republicans have a divided party. Matt Bevin won a competitive GOP primary but is despised by some Republicans for challenging Sen. Mitch McConnell last year. And Republicans just installed a new state party chairman, fewer than four months before Election Day.

For all of those reasons, it was widely assumed that Democrats had the upper hand in the race. But there is some evidence that Democrats are at risk of losing in Kentucky, including a public poll which showed Bevin with a slight advantage.

According to a June 18-21 automated survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, Bevin had a 40 percent to 38 percent edge over Conway in a two-way general election matchup. What might have been more surprising was the candidates’ favorable numbers. Bevin had a 31 percent favorable/28 percent unfavorable rating compared to 31 percent favorable/34 percent unfavorable rating for Conway.

Because of Bevin’s challenge to McConnell, the Republican’s reputation appears to be worse inside the Beltway than it is in Kentucky.

“Bevin is a better candidate than people are giving him credit for,” cautioned one Democratic operative who has done extensive work in Kentucky.

And while Beshear is popular, President Barack Obama’s numbers continue to be terrible in Kentucky. He had a 33 percent job approval/60 percent disapproval in the PPP survey.

Democrats are hoping voters continue to bifurcate state races from federal races, but this race will test that tradition. Multiple party strategists also believe that Bevin is currently benefiting from two years of television ads, while Conway hasn’t been on TV since his re-election race four years ago. Bevin made it through this year’s primary largely unscathed while two of his opponents attacked each other.

Now, both parties are up with television ads, but the race should get even more attention on Aug. 1 at Fancy Farm, when candidates, operatives and reporters gather for the state’s annual political picnic.

Democrats are confident that Conway’s standing will improve after the party educates voters, specifically for not disclosing his personal tax returns and being delinquent on some business taxes. But even though Bevin isn’t an establishment favorite, the Republican Governors Association is on television with an ad pairing Conway with Obama.

Via: Roll Call

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Hillary's huge lead over the GOP? Maybe it never existed

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton delivers a speech at Texas Southern University in Houston, Thursday, June 4, 2015. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

Through all of Hillary Clinton's recent troubles — emails, foundation, Benghazi — Democrats have taken comfort in their all-but-assured nominee's formidable lead over top Republicans in head-to-head matchups. Now that lead is shrinking, and the Democratic comfort level is falling along with it.

 

But it's possible Clinton's big lead was never as big as Democrats thought. Yes, some of the margins looked enormous:

* A CNN poll in March showed Clinton up by 15 points over Republican Jeb Bush, 13 points over Marco Rubio, 11 points over Rand Paul, and 15 points over Scott Walker.

* An ABC News poll in March showed Clinton up by 15 points over Rubio, 14 points over Walker, and 13 points over Bush.

* A CNN poll in April showed Clinton up by 22 points over Walker, 19 points over Paul, 14 points over Rubio, and 17 points over Bush.

Big margins. But at the same time, at least one other poll — by Public Policy Polling, the Democratic polling firm — showed Clinton with much more modest leads over her GOP rivals. A PPP survey in late February showed Clinton with an eight-point lead over Walker, a seven-point lead over Rubio, a seven-point lead over Paul, and a 10-point lead over Bush.

A PPP poll at the end of March showed Clinton with a four-point lead over Walker, a four-point lead over Paul, a three-point lead over Rubio, and a six-point lead over Bush — at a time the other polls showed Clinton far ahead of those rivals.

"I am definitely skeptical that Clinton was ever really up by 15 points like some of the early polls were showing," says PPP director Tom Jensen. The reason for those big leads, Jensen suggested in an email conversation, might have more to do with the other polls' methods rather than any overwhelming Clinton advantage.

We use tighter controls on who we call for our polls than most national surveys do. Although we don't do an actual likely voter screen this far out, we do pull lists based on people who have voted in at least one of the last three elections. So I think we end up with samples that are a little bit more conservative than if we were calling all adults or even just registered voters with no respect to voting history.

If Jensen and PPP are correct, then the core assumption of much political analysis in the last few months was little more than irrational exuberance. Now that Clinton is returning to earth in other polls as well — PPP has a new poll out in about 10 days — the question will be how Democrats react to the realization that there once-inevitable shoo-in president might not be an inevitable shoo-in after all.

Via: Washington Examiner

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PPP admits hiding Colorado recall poll

A spokesman for Public Policy Polling admitted Wednesday towithholding a poll showing Colorado voters were going to recall State Sen. Angela Giron by a 12-point margin.

The reason, according to PPP pollster Tom Jensen, was that “in a district that Barack Obama won by almost 20 points, I figured there was no way that could be right and made a rare decision not to release the poll.”

When the votes were counted in race, the poll turned out to be on target, as Giron lost by 12 points. “We should have had more faith in our numbers,” Jensen said.

Interestingly, the poll also found 68 percent supporting background checks and an evenly split on a law limiting high capacity ammunition magazines.

The poll also found 53 percent of voters approved of the National Rifle Association.

One might think that Giron's stances on gun control would produce a different result in an overwhelmingly Democratic district, but Jensen pointed to the factor that made the difference:

But the NRA won the messaging game and turned it into something bigger than it was — even if that wasn’t true — and Giron paid the price.

Via: Washington Examiner

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Debates deliver favorability edge to Romney; now above 50% in rating

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Mitt Romney crossed a major threshold early this week, moving above 50 percent in his favorability rating with voters, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls — and for the first time in the campaign he now leads President Obama on that measure.

The Republican presidential nominee has clearly benefited from the debates. He had a 44.5 percent favorability rating at the end of September, before the debates. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the final debate of the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorability average was up to 50.5 percent.

Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge “really has been remarkable.”

“It was inevitable that Republicans were going to warm up to him once he became their nominee, but ever since his big victory in the first debate, his numbers with independents have improved a good deal as well,” he said. “We’re actually finding in our national tracking now that Romney’s favorability numbers are better than Obama‘s, which no one could have imagined six months ago.”

Mike McKenna, a Republican pollster, said Mr. Romney used the three 90-minute debates this month, with the largest national audiences he’s ever had, to humanize himself for voters who’d only seen snapshots in campaign commercials. news accounts and negative ads from the Obama campaign.

Via: Washington Times

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POLL: ROMNEY'S OHIO FAVORABLES UP 30 SINCE FEBRUARY

Public Policy Polling announced Saturday afternoon that presidential candidate Mitt Romney has seen a 30-point upward swing in his favorability ratings in the state of Ohio since February.

The numbers were juxtaposed in a succinct Twitter update:

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls

In Februrary Mitt Romney's favorability in Ohio was 28/56. Now it's 49/47. 30 point net positive shift over the course of the year

20 Oct 12

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The 21-point increase in those who favor the former Massachusetts Governor suggests more than half of the 16% undecided from the February figure, once exposed to him directly through the Republican National Convention and presidential debates, have adopted a positive view of the GOP challenger. 

Even if all those who are currently undecided come from the 9% who used to have an unfavorable view of Romney, that would mean all 16% of former undecideds have swung to a positive view of the candidate along with 5% of those formerly unfavorable.

The complete poll shows Romney with a 47% favorable rating among independents, 41% unfavorable, and 12% unsure. Among that same group, the February numbers had Romney at 30% favorable and 53% unfavorable -- a 29-point net positive shift.

Via: Breitbart

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