Showing posts with label 2012 Presidential Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Presidential Election. Show all posts

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Democratic Campaigns Pay African American, Hispanic Staffers Less

Obama campaign headquarters via BarackObama.tumblr.comDemocratic federal-level campaigns are paying minority staffers significantly less than their white counterparts, according to a study from the New Organizing Institute (NOI).
“African American staffers on Democratic federal-level campaigns are paid 70 cents on the dollar compared to their white counterparts; Hispanics are paid 68 cents on the dollar,” writes Ethan Roeder, executive director of NOI.
The study finds that although Republican campaign staffs hire a disproportionately high number of white men, the income disparities between racial groups are not nearly as pronounced as on Democratic campaigns.
Barack Obama’s reelection campaign received criticism during the 2012 elections for a picture of his Chicago headquarters that revealed a lack of diversity; it responded by making a push to hire more African Americans.
NOI completed the study by compiling data from the Federal Elections Committee on 16,241 individual campaign staffers from 2012 that they could with good confidence determine the race of.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Issa Steps In to Probe Census Fraud Claims

Image: Issa Steps In to Probe Census Fraud ClaimsHouse Republicans have launched an investigation into "shocking" allegations that sharp declines in unemployment figures released just before the 2012 presidential election may be indicative of widespread and systematic fraud taking place throughout the U.S. Census Bureau.

The probe came about after New York Post columnist John Crudele wrote about Census employee Julius Buckmon, who told Crudele that his boss directed him to fabricate people and information to meet survey quotas for the Philadelphia region. 

Buckmon was just the tip of the iceberg, according to an anonymous Crudele source, who acknowledged that other employees did the same thing. 

Buckmon left the agency in August 2011, according to Business Insider, which quotes a Census spokesman saying, "The agency has no reason to believe this isn't an isolated incident" by an employee "willfully disobeying Census procedures and disobeying the law."

Crudele also raised questions about Census hiring thousands of temporary workers to conduct surveys and then letting them go only to later hire them back. Each "hiring," he writes, showed up as a created job and when the employee was let go, the person did not qualify for unemployment and never showed up as someone who had lost his or her job.

Former Census field manager Ron Brochu told Crudele that during the 2010 census he witnessed "operations that strongly suggest the Census Bureau manipulated nationwide hiring of tens of thousands of temporary workers to manipulate employment data in 2008 and 2009."

Via: Newsmax


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Monday, November 5, 2012

Thousands of Troops May Not Get to Vote


Thousands of military personnel may not get to vote in the presidential election because ballots have been delayed in reaching military voters stationed overseas, according to Republican lawmakers angry over what they call a “serious failure” of the Dept. of Defense to safeguard the voting rights of the military.
Sen. John Cornyn, (R-TX) said thousands of military voters could be disenfranchised as a result of the DoD’s failure to modernize its system of getting ballots to troops.
“DoD’s failure to fix this longstanding problem means that the blank ballots of thousands of overseas service members, as well as some who have recently returned from overseas, could be currently trapped in an archaic and inefficient mail forwarding system,” Cornyn wrote in a letter to Sec. of Defense Leon Panetta. “These ballots are unlikely to reach these service members until after Election Day has passed.”
Via: Fox News Radio

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Sunday, November 4, 2012

Main Street in Revolt


The homemade sign for Mitt Romney in the yard of a well-manicured but modest home in Leadville, Colo., forlornly signals the fracture of another onetime supporter of Barack Obama.
If Romney wins the presidency on Tuesday, the national media, the Washington establishment and the bulk of academia will have missed something huge that happened in “flyover” America under their watch.
It is a story that few have told.
It reminds one of the famous quip by New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael following Richard Nixon’s landslide 1972 victory: “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon.”
Two years after suffering a historic shellacking in the 2010 midterm election, Democrats astonishingly have ignored Main Street Americans’ unhappiness.
That 2010 ejection from the U.S. House, and from state legislatures and governors’ offices across the country, didn’t happen inside the Washington Beltway world.
It didn’t reflect the Democrats’ or the media’s conventional wisdom or voter-turnout models. So it just wasn’t part of their reality.
In Democrats’ minds, it was never a question of “How did we lose Main Street?” Instead, it was the fault of the “tea party” or of crazy right-wing Republicans.
Yet in interview after interview — in Colorado, along Nebraska’s plains, in small Iowa towns or Wisconsin shops, outside closed Ohio steel plants and elsewhere — many Democrats have told me they are furious with the president. Not in a frothing-at-the-mouth or racist way, as many elites suggest. They just have legitimate concerns affecting their lives.
These Main Street Democrats in seven battleground states supported Obama in 2008. Now they are disappointed by his broken pledges: Where is the promised bipartisanship? How could health-care reform become such a mess? What direction is the country going in?

Thursday, November 1, 2012

WAVE: ROMNEY UP 19 WITH SUBURBAN VOTERS


The 2012 Presidential campaign will be decided in the tree-lined cul-de-sacs that dominate the American landscape. Rural voters are reliably Republican and urban voters are reliably Democrat. But, suburban voters are the swingy-est of voters. In many states, they decide the outcome of competitive races. Stuffed with Independents, suburban voters started drifting towards Democrats during the baby boomer campaign of Bill Clinton. Today, however, there are signs they are rushing back to the GOP.

The latest Politico battleground poll, released earlier this week, shows Romney with a massive 19-point lead over Obama among suburban voters. Surprisingly, it's actually one point higher than his lead among rural voters. Obama leads among urban voters by 29 points. In 2008, Obama won the suburban vote by 2 points. The 21-point swing away from him makes his reelection very difficult. 
Obama's approval rating among suburban voters is deeply underwater. Just 42% approve of the job he is doing, against 57% who disapprove. A staggering 52% disapprove strongly. Romney has a net 23 approval rating among suburban voters, 59% approving with 36% disapproving. 
Over the past 30 years, no one has won the presidency without winning the suburban vote. Bill Clinton's successful campaigns were built on getting strong support from suburban voters. To some extent, Obama inherited much of the goodwill Clinton earned with this important voting block. Yet, in just four years, Obama seems to have squandered that. 
As the suburbs go, so goes the nation. Today, at least, the suburbs are going with Romney.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Report: Obama Has Begun Suggesting To Field Organizers In Florida Their Time Would Be Better Spent In Ohio…


Does Mitt-Mentum Signal a Surge to a Romney Win?

At this stage of a tight presidential race, a refreshing transparency reveals itself to even the casual observer. How campaigns actually view the state of the race emerges in plain sight from the long-cloaked inner sanctum of polling, focus groups, and micro-targeting of voter preferences.
When President Obama suddenly rolls out a 20-page pamphlet summarizing his second-term agenda, voters know it was because the campaign discovered a hole in its data dug by GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s monthlong criticism. Presidents don’t dance to a challenger’s tune unless the polling data dictate they must. The same can be said for Obama’s aggressive, zinger-filled performance in the third debate. He needed to challenge Romney on facts and energize the slackers in his base.
Similarly during the last debate, Romney ran away from previous confrontations with Obama over the terrorist attack in Libya that killed four Americans—the reddest of red meat for conservatives right now. Instead, he spoke plaintively of “peace” and of war with Iran being the absolute “last resort,” because he knew he needed votes from nonaligned suburbanites—especially women. Romney also ignored Obama’s taunts because one-on-one jousting cost him in the second debate.
In short, Obama is acting like a slightly irked incumbent who needs to make up ground on a challenger he thought he had put away last summer. Romney is acting like a challenger who can’t afford to risk losing what he gained in the first debate, trying to siphon off voters still loosely attached to Obama.
The central question is whether Romney is surging to victory or merely merging into a lane of GOP support observable in previous presidential elections but insufficient to overcome Obama’s built-in demographic and ground-game advantages. The Romney campaign knows it will outperform John McCain’s turnout averages in all the vital swing states. Romney also knows that Republican voters outperformed Democratic voters in 10 swing states in 2004 (50.7 percent turnout to 48.3 percent). Republicans were competitive with Democrats in 2000 (47.9 percent to 48.4 percent). The blowout year was 2008, when Republicans lost the turnout contest to Democrats 45.6 percent to 52.9 percent,

Thursday, October 25, 2012

OBAMA BLUE STATE DISASTER


Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat
MYFOXDetroit.com - Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.
An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.
Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.
The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?
President Barack Obama       46.92%
GOP Nominee Mitt Romney   46.56%
Another candidate                     2.30%
Undecided                                  4.23%


President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney participated in three presidential debates on October. Did their debate performances affect your vote for President?
It confirmed my candidate choice     50.86%
It made me change my candidate    12.24%
It had no affect on my candidate        30.68%
I didn't watch the debate                        6.22%


Romney by a landslide


A deeply troubled and deeply troubling administration that will do anything, no matter how cynical and venal, to protect its hold on power


When it comes to predicting the outcome of presidential races most pundits refuse to go out on a limb in predicting probable outcomes. Let’s face it; it’s a risky business that could leave one’s face covered with egg. However, in the case of the current election I will happily stick my neck out and risk being seen as a blowhard who believes himself up to predicting the future.

n a word, I predict a Romney landslide and here’s why: despite the fact that the famous 47% who to whatever degree depend on the government for their daily bread is expected to look for more of the same, I believe that if this percentage could have their druthers, they’d opt for having a well-paying job that left them self-sufficient, rather than dependent on the government.

I think that at some level most people in America understand that socialization would result in an overall lower standard of living. I also believe that despite all the class envy and hatred that’s been ginned up against the 1% by this administration, there is a basic understanding that private business, not the government, creates wealth. In my experience, most Americans understand that socialism doesn’t so much “spread the wealth” as it imposes equal degrees of misery.

Obama has incurred close to $6 trillion in new debt through deficit spending, the majority of which has gone to “stimulate” the economy. Counting the massive $821 billion stimulus bill and several additional stimulus bills and three Quantitative Easing initiatives (that’s government speak for printing extra money), the net effect has been that the American economy remains in the doldrums with unemployment in real terms approaching 15%. But even that failure might be forgiven if Obama hadn’t taken his role as messiah so seriously and make grandiloquent promises that could never be kept. I recall writing in these pages on November 11, 2008:

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Obama Collapse: Romney Tied In Michigan


Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election. 
An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.
Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.
The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama             46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney            46.56%
another candidate            2.30%
Undecided             4.23%

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

TRR: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968

Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters has Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama by seven points, 52% to 45%. Mr. Romney’s total is greater than Richard Nixon’s 44% at this point in the race in 1968, Jimmy Carter’s 49% in 1976, Ronald Reagan’s hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%), George H. W. Bush’s 50% in 1988, and Bill Clinton’s 40% in 1992. In 2000 and 2008 George W. Bush and Barack Obama both tracked at a within-error 51%.

The Gallup numbers have come under criticism from Obama supporters for their supposed inaccuracy, but the oldest established polling organization has done well in predicting the last three elections. In 2000, the final Gallup likely voter poll showed a neck and neck race, 47/45, which turned out to be a 50/50 outcome. In 2004 Gallup had the Bush/Kerry race at 49/47 and the result was 50/48. And in 2008 Gallup's final likely voter poll had Mr. Obama at 53% which was right on the money. Whether Mr. Romney's tracking numbers will hold over the next few weeks remains to be seen but right now he is on a better trajectory than any presidential challenger in the last 40+ years.
Maybe the Justice Department will want to investigate.

Via: Washington Times

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Debates deliver favorability edge to Romney; now above 50% in rating

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Mitt Romney crossed a major threshold early this week, moving above 50 percent in his favorability rating with voters, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls — and for the first time in the campaign he now leads President Obama on that measure.

The Republican presidential nominee has clearly benefited from the debates. He had a 44.5 percent favorability rating at the end of September, before the debates. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the final debate of the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorability average was up to 50.5 percent.

Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge “really has been remarkable.”

“It was inevitable that Republicans were going to warm up to him once he became their nominee, but ever since his big victory in the first debate, his numbers with independents have improved a good deal as well,” he said. “We’re actually finding in our national tracking now that Romney’s favorability numbers are better than Obama‘s, which no one could have imagined six months ago.”

Mike McKenna, a Republican pollster, said Mr. Romney used the three 90-minute debates this month, with the largest national audiences he’s ever had, to humanize himself for voters who’d only seen snapshots in campaign commercials. news accounts and negative ads from the Obama campaign.

Via: Washington Times

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Monday, October 22, 2012

Winners and losers from the final presidential debate


And just like that, the 2012 presidential election debates are over.
President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney traded blows on foreign policy for 90 minutes in Boca Raton tonight. So, who won and who lost? We try to answer both of those questions below.
Agree or disagree with our picks? Tell us why in the comments section.
WINNERS
* President Obama: Obama controlled the third presidential debate in a way not all that dissimilar from the way Romney controlled the first one. Obama clearly came loaded for bear, attacking Romney from the jump for a lack of clarity when it came to his vision (or lack thereof) on foreign policy. If you are looking for moments — and remember that the media coverage over the next few days will focus on just that — Obama had two with his line about “the 1980s calling” in regards to Romney’s foreign policy and his reference to “horses and bayonets” to call into question his rival’s understanding of the modern military.   It’s possible that Obama came off too hot/not presidential in some of his attacks but Democrats will take a little too much heat following Obama’s cold-as-ice performance in the first debate. Obama came across as the more confident and commanding presence — by a lot. 
Bob Schieffer: Yes, there was a section in the middle of the debate where the two candidates got into an extended conversation about class size and things looked like they might go completely off the tracks. But, to Schieffer’s credit he did a solid job of balancing the need to keep some sort of structure in the debate while at the same time letting the two men litigate out their difference. Also, huge credit to Schieffer for injecting a bit of humor into the proceedings; his rebuke of Romney for demanding more time brought a smile to the faces of both candidates and his wry “I think we all love teachers” line felt pitch perfect. 
Zingers: Remember in the runup to the first debate how Obama insisted that Romney would focus on “zingers” and he would talk about substance? By the third debate, Obama seemed to have decided that a few zingers thrown in here and there couldn’t hurt.  His line that “the 1980s are calling to have their foreign policy back” is likely to be the most memorable one of the night (and maybe of the entire presidential debate season).  
Mali: Two mentions in the first 10 minutes of the debate ain’t too shabby. Now, quick, what is the capital of Mali? Bamako!
“Tumult”: By our count, Romney used the word five times to describe a situation happening in the world. Somewhere ”uproar”, “turmoil” and “hubbub” are grimacing.
LOSERS
Mitt Romney: Romney clearly decided to play it safe in this debate — whether because he thought he was ahead and will win if he doesn’t screw up or because he knows that foreign policy isn’t his strong suit.  But, as NFL teams (re)learn every year, playing the prevent defense almost never works. Romney was constantly trying to parry Obama attacks; he knocked some down but plenty got through too.  Romney also struggled to differentiate how his foreign policy would offer a break with what Obama has pursued over the past four years. And, he seemed uninterested in attacking Obama on Libya, a baffling strategic decision. Romney was, not surprisingly, at his best when talking about how the economic uncertainty in this country led to uncertainty for the country more broadly but he just didn’t do enough of it to win.
Foreign policy: It was probably inevitable that a real discussion of America’s role in the world wasn’t going to happen amid polling that suggests that voters overwhelmingly care about the economy in this country. After about 15 minutes of trying to stay on the announced topic, both Obama and Romney started to talk at least as much about domestic policy as foreign policy. The two candidates’ closing statements were illustrative of this fact; neither man made more than a passing mention of foreign policy. It’s hard to imagine that any voter seeking a more detailed explanation of the two candidates’ views on a broad swath of foreign policy matters got it tonight.
Via: Washington Post
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Transcript And Audio: Third Presidential Debate


Mitt Romney and President Obama debate Monday in Boca Raton, Fla., with moderator Bob Schieffer.
EnlargeWin McNamee/Getty Images
Mitt Romney and President Obama debate Monday in Boca Raton, Fla., with moderator Bob Schieffer.
text size A A A
October 22, 2012
Transcript of the third debate between President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, Oct. 22 in Boca Raton, Fla., moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS. Source: Federal News Service
Editor's Note: NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by a contractor for NPR, and accuracy and availability may vary. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future.
BOB SCHIEFFER: Good evening from the campus of Lynn University here in Boca Raton, Florida. This is the fourth and last debate of the 2012 campaign, brought to you by the Commission on Presidential Debates. This one's on foreign policy. I'm Bob Schieffer of CBS News. The questions are mine, and I have not shared them with the candidates or their aides.
The audience has taken a vow of silence — no applause, no reaction of any kind except right now when we welcome President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. (Sustained cheers, applause.)
Gentlemen, your campaigns have agreed to certain rules and they are simple. They have asked me to divide the evening into segments. I'll pose a question at the beginning of each segment. You will each have two minutes to respond, and then we will have a general discussion until we move to the next segment.
Tonight's debate, as both of your know, comes on the 50th anniversary of the night that President Kennedy told the world that the Soviet Union had installed nuclear missiles in Cuba — perhaps the closest we've ever come to nuclear war. And it is a sobering reminder that every president faces at some point an unexpected threat to our national security from abroad. So let's begin.

Obama, Romney hit each other on foreign policy in last debate before election


President Obama and Mitt Romney painted a bleak portrait of each other’s leadership on the world stage Monday night, using their final debate before a feverish two-week blitz of campaigning to tout their commander-in-chief credentials.

To hear Romney tell it, the president has presided over a steady decline in American influence that has emboldened enemies like Iran. To hear Obama, the Republican nominee would confuse the rest of the world with a foreign policy that is “all over the map.”

The two met for a debate focused on foreign policy, though it often veered to domestic issues like the economy and taxes. In contrast to the last debate where Obama and Romney paced and circled each other throughout, the rivals were seated next to one another onstage in Boca Raton, Fla. It made for a less confrontational setting, but the tone was no less tense.

Obama accused Romney of pushing a foreign policy that’s either flat-out “wrong” or some version of what the president himself has already done, only “louder.” Romney accused the president of projecting “weakness” on the world stage, whether through his so-called “apology tour” overseas or his policy on Iran.
Romney ripped President Obama’s foreign policy at the start of Monday night’s debate, claiming the president’s strategy has not quelled the Al Qaeda threat. 

“It’s certainly not on the run. It’s certainly not hiding,” Romney said. “This is a group that is now involved in 10 or 12 countries.”

Romney commended Obama for ordering the raid that killed Usama bin Laden and other strikes on Al Qaeda leaders, but he said “we can’t kill our way out of this mess.” He said Al Qaeda remains an “enormous threat,” despite Obama’s claims that the terror group is on the path to defeat.

Obama, though, countered that “Al Qaeda’s core leadership has been decimated.” And he sought to portray Romney as someone who would be an unsteady leader on the world stage. He accused Romney of having a strategy that is “all over the map.”

Obama was tough on Romney from the outset, accusing him of having poor judgment and antiquated views on foreign affairs.

“I'm glad that you recognize that Al Qaeda is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaeda,” Obama said. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back.”

Obama went on to say that, on foreign policy, “every time you've offered an opinion, you've been wrong.”
Romney fired back, “attacking me is not an agenda.” He accused Obama of looking at countries like Russia through “rose-colored glasses.”

The 90-minute debate offered perhaps the last chance for either candidate to shake up the race in any significant way, with two weeks to go until Election Day. The face-off at Lynn University was moderated by Bob Schieffer.

The presidential debates this month have been among the most consequential in modern campaign history. Romney entered the debates as the slight underdog in most polls, but since his opening performance has surged to pull even with or ahead of the president.

Via: Fox News


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Friday, October 19, 2012

GALLUP POLL: Gov. Romney’s Lead Over President Obama Is Outside ‘Margin of Error’ for First Time

gallup
Check out the numbers in this latest, potentially game-changing Gallup poll. The poll taken among likely voters shows the GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Mitt Romney leading over President Obama, 51 to 45 percent — and for the first time, the advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error.

Do you think Romney can maintain the lead through the next debate? Let us know!


Wednesday, October 17, 2012

[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study


The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned. 

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president. 

CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, who spoke with Campus Reform at length on Tuesday, said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.
Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.
“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.

That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000. 

Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election. 

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” he said. 

Berry also acknowledged that while his poll is accurate, however, that his model does not “calculate a specific confidence level for the Electoral College result.”

The study, conducted every four years, is non-political and employs historical data as well as current unemployment numbers and income levels.

In the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, a recent poll reveals that a majority of voters believe the health of the economy is the most important issue of this election.

Additionally, more than double of the respondents in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll trust Romney over Obama to fix the economic state of our country (63%-29%).

Along with the economy, unemployment adds an element which only increases the probability of the CU prediction. 

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. 

Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder adds, “the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

The Colorado model has had such accuracy over the years, these results have received no criticism from academic peers, according to Berry.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters


Obama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008

by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
Presidential Race 2012, Likely Voters
While Romney's four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup's seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate -- regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it -- Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

IBD/TIPP Poll: Romney Jumps To 5-Point Lead Over Obama, 48% – 43%…


IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
Daily Tracking Poll
Day 2: Oct. 10, 2012
Romney: +5.0
  • Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
  • Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.
  • Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points.
  • Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead.
  • The current data include only polls taken after Romney’s resounding debate win over Obama on Oct. 3.
Obama
Romney
Not Sure
OVERALL
43.7%
48.7%
6.1%
REGION
Northeast
49%
42%
9%
Midwest
47%
47%
4%
South
40%
54%
5%
West
43%
46%
9%
AGE
18-44
50%
44%
6%
45-64
40%
51%
7%
65+
37%
54%
5%
GENDER
Male
36%
57%
6%
Female
50%
42%
6%
RACE
White
34%
58%
7%
Black/Hispanic
82%
13%
3%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Under 30K
50%
44%
5%
30K-50K
46%
49%
4%
50-75K
41%
48%
11%
75K+
44%
51%
5%
PARTY
Democrats
86%
7%
5%
Republicans
3%
95%
1%
Ind./Other
34%
54%
12%
INVESTOR CLASS
Yes
44%
50%
6%
No
44%
47%
7%
AREA TYPE
Urban
48%
43%
7%
Suburban
47%
46%
6%
Rural
34%
58%
6%
WHITE
White men
28%
64%
6%
White women
39%
52%
7%
BLACK/HISPANIC
Black*
91%
6%
3%
Hispanic*
64%
30%
4%
WOMEN
Single women
58%
37%
5%
Married women
43%
47%
8%
EDUCATION
High School
41%
47%
9%
Some College
42%
52%
5%
College Degree+
46%
48%
5%
IDEOLOGY
Conservative
18%
76%
5%
Moderate
54%
37%
8%
Liberal
89%
4%
5%
HOUSEHOLD DESCRIPTION
Upper/Upper Middle
52%
41%
7%
Middle
41%
51%
5%
Working
40%
50%
8%
Lower*
50%
45%
6%
RELIGION
Protestant
35%
60%
5%
Catholic
43%
46%
6%
Other Christian
40%
56%
3%
Jewish*
47%
25%
28%
Other*
51%
36%
11%
None
67%
27%
5%
UNION HOUSEHOLD
Yes
59%
33%
6%
No
41%
51%
6%
2008 VOTE
Obama
83%
9%
8%
McCain
2%
94%
4%
Polling period: 10/4 - 10/9
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 757 likely voters (identified from 873 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)
Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples

Via: IBD


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