The president's approval rating is falling faster among young people than any other group. Will Republicans capitalize on it??
We all know Republicans have done well among seniors, whileDemocrats have done better with the young. Part of this is that the youth segment of the electorate is more diverse – although younger white people have also been more Democratic than their older counterparts. Given that people tend to hang on to the voting habits they start with, you can see how this might be a problem for Republicans in later elections.
Older folks are more likely to die sooner than younger people, of course. So, Republicans have to hope for one of two things to happen in order to stay competitive in elections.
The first possibility is that those currently younger than 18 will turn out to be more conservative than the 18- to 29-year-olds are now. I've made this point before, and there is some polling of high school students that suggests this may be true.
The second possibility is that younger voters will become more Republican over time. I've been somewhat skeptical of this view. Party affiliation tends to be relatively stable over the period of one's life.
Sean Trende has noted, however, that younger voters did become somewhat more Republican, compared to the electorate at large, from 2008 to 2012. Young white voters were 10pt less in favor of Obama per the exit polls, while young black voters were 4pt less in favor, compared to only a 2pt drop in Obama's vote percentage among all voters. Trende also pointed out strong evidence that 18- to 24-year-olds in 1972 have become exponentially more Republican over the past 40 years.
So, Trende may be on to something. As any polling aggregate illustrates, President Obama has seen his approval rating fall considerably over the past few months. The Real Clear Politics average, as of this writing, has it at 44%. Many of us have been trying to figure out why this approval has dropped. If we look at the racial breakdown, it's mainly among whites without a college degree and, to a lesser extent, minority groups.
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