Romney Jumps to 5-Point Lead in Gallup Poll

All registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's candidates and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would you vote for [ROTATED: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats (or) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans]?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

These results are for likely voters, who are the respondents Gallup deems most likely to vote based on their responses to a series of questions asking about current voting intentions, thought given to the election, and past voting behavior. Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 2,700 likely voters; margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Via: Gallup

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What If Crowley and Her Accomplices Succeed?

Such an outcome would be worse than a scandal, it would be downright dangerous.

Shortly after Obamacare was passed and signed by the President, Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute noted a sudden plethora of articles that had begun to appear in a wide variety of MSM outlets about the probable ill-effects of "reform." This prompted him to ask, "Where were these reporters before the passage of the health care bill?" The answer to this question is now pretty obvious. They were colluding, via Journo List and other such forums that we don't know about, to make sure that no one screwed up and told the truth before that morass of taxes and regulations became the law of the land. To the nation's cost, their self-censorship succeeded.

Today, we face a similar but much more dangerous situation. The "reporters" of the establishment news media are engaged in a concerted campaign of misinformation to get Barack Obama re-elected. This has been evident for some time, but the breathtaking mendacity of this effort was writ large by Candy Crowley during last Tuesday's presidential debate. Everyone has by now seen the video clip: the President made the preposterous claim that he had identified the attack on our Benghazi consulate as an act of terrorism as early as September 12. Then, when Romney called him on this egregious whopper, Crowley repeated the lie.

This was no misbegotten attempt at instant "fact checking." It was a deliberately disingenuous attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of the debate's 65 million viewers. Crowley herself admitted that she had reviewed the transcript of Obama's September 12 Rose Garden remarks in advance of the debate, and she is not dumb enough to believe Obama's characterization of his boilerplate comment about "acts of terror" in general. This tag-team prevarication may well backfire. Jeffrey Lord suggests, in Thursday's American Spectator, that it may turn out to be the "tipping point that makes Mitt Romney the 45th President of the United States."

That would certainly constitute a splendid example of poetic justice. But what if Lord is wrong? What if Obama's MSM pimps succeed in getting him re-elected? As we saw with Obamacare, these people wield a great deal of power and they are obviously willing to abuse it. Moreover, despite the increasing distrust with which the public regards the effusions of the Fourth Estate, nearly half of the nation's adults still believe what they see and hear in the media. Gallup released a survey last month showing that 40 percent of the electorate still has some measure of confidence that the MSM reports the news "fairly, accurately and fully."

Via: American Spectator

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Romney Outpolling Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II and Obama At Same Point In Their Victorious Election Bids…

According to the latest Gallup survey, Mitt Romney is polling 52% of likely voters. At this point in the race he is ahead of:

Where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 (47%)

Where Ronald Reagan was in 1980 (39% -- Carter was six points up)

Where George H.W. Bush was in 1988 (50%)

Where Bill Clinton was in 1992 (40%)

Where George W. Bush was in 2000 (48%)

Where Barack Obama was in 2008 (49%)

Via: Washington Times

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GALLUP POLL: Gov. Romney’s Lead Over President Obama Is Outside ‘Margin of Error’ for First Time

Check out the numbers in this latest, potentially game-changing Gallup poll. The poll taken among likely voters shows the GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Mitt Romney leading over President Obama, 51 to 45 percent — and for the first time, the advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error.

Do you think Romney can maintain the lead through the next debate? Let us know!

Via: Fox Insider

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Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters

Obama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008

by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney's four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup's seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate -- regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it -- Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

Via: Gallup

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Morning Jay: Politics and the Gallup Poll

Since about the beginning of President Obama’s tenure, the Gallup poll has generally been one of the least positive polls for the Democratic party. This has prompted outrage and pressure from the left--even from presidential advisor David Axelrod.

Over the summer Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote a critique of Gallup’s daily presidential job approval poll. The point of which was that Gallup was over-sampling whites and thus understating President Obama’s position in the adult population. I responded by arguing that Blumenthal’s case was underdeveloped and less-than-met-the-eye, and that was basically where things stood.

Until, that is, this week. President Obama enjoyed a bounce in his Gallup job approval number after the Democratic National Convention, as was to be expected, but there was a twist: it did not disappear. And while Gallup on average had found Obama’s job approval around 47 percent with adults through most of 2012, for the last five weeks it has been regularly above 50 percent. Yesterday, it stood at 53 percent, a number we have not really seen since 2009.

Via: Weekly Standard

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BATTLEGROUND POLL: ROMNEY UP 16 WITH INDEPENDENTS, UP 13 IN ENTHUSIASM

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

That's a 24-point swing among independents since 2008, a group that makes up anywhere from a quarter to a third of voters, and yet Battleground still has Obama in the lead 49-48…?

But if I'm skeptical of those bottom-line numbers, our journalist overlords who have chosen to palace guard instead of question will declare me a "truther."

The Battleground Poll also shows a 13 point enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. Only 73% of Obama's supporters are "extremely likely" to vote, compared to 86% of Romney's supporters.

But again, don't question Battleground's 49-48% outcome. In fact, don't questionanything anymore -- or the media will question you and mock you as a "truther. " This includes questioning our government about the release of counter-intuitive unemployment statistics very helpful to the president just 30 days out from the election.

Though the media hasn't yet decided it's time for a Romney Comeback Narrative, and probably never will, even if he wins -- there's no question Romney is rebounding in every national and swing state poll.

Nationally, Gallup has it all tied up among registered voters -- with the president dangerously below 50 at 47%. Rasmussen uses the more reliable likely voter screen and has Romney up 49-47%.

In the Real Clear Politics poll of polls,  nationally Romney is only down .09%. A week ago he was down over 4 points.

In Ohio, according to RCP's poll of polls, Obama's Ohio lead has shrunk to three --  Virginiahas Obama only up by 0.3. Florida and Colorado are tied.  

The good news for Romney is that we are now seeing polls from each of these states with the GOP nominee in the lead. The bad news for Obama is that in most of these swing state polls, he is not hitting 50.

Well, actually the worst news for Obama is 85% of the calls made for this new Battleground Poll were made prior to Obama humiliating himself in last week's debate. 

Via: Breitbart

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MEDIA POLLS: THE NEWEST NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN AD

Over the years, I've generally had little patience when partisans make the "polls are wrong" argument. I've usually found it to be the last refuge of campaigns which were clearly struggling. Sure, individual polls can be wrong, and some can occasionally produce a crazy outlier, but a collective average of polling produces a roughly accurate snapshot of the state of a race. This year, however, is different. The overwhelming majority of media polling this election employ such absurd assumptions about turnout this November that they not only misrepresent the presidential race, they are actively distorting it. I also believe it is intentional. 

In 2008, the electorate that elected Barack Obama was 39% Democrat, 32% GOP and 29% Independent. This is what we call a D+7 electorate. Obama defeated McCain by 7 points, the same margin. In 2004, the electorate was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 26% Independent, in other words D/R +0. Bush defeated John Kerry by 3 points nationally. 

Yet, virtually every big media poll is based on a model in which Democrats equal or increase their share of the electorate over 2008. Beyond simple common sense, there are many reasons this won't happen. The Dem vote in '08 was the largest in decades. It came after fatigue of eight years of GOP control, two unpopular wars, a charming Democrat candidate who was the Chauncy Gardner of politics, a vessel who could hold everyone's personal dreams and hopes for a politician. It was a perfect storm for Democrats. 

None of the factors driving Democrat turnout in '08 exist today. Recent polls from AP, Politico and the daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup, all of which assume relatively lower Democrat turnout in November, show the race essentially tied. Only those polls showing an electorate with equal or greater numbers of Democrats show Obama with any sizable lead. 

Yet, it's these polls that are driving the political narrative. Every day the media launches a number of stories about Romney's "struggling" campaign. They cite anonymous GOP sources who wring their hands that the campaign is losing ground. The only real evidence of this, however, are the polls which heavily over-sample Democrat voters. Without these skewed polls, the media's narrative would be untenable. 

Via: Breitbart

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SHHH… OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING TANKS TO DANGEROUS NEW LEVEL

Shhh… Don’t tell the biased Obama media.

Obama’s approval rating sank to a dangerous new level this month. The president has an approval rating at 46 percent and a disapproval rating at 48 percent.
Business Insider reported:

Obama’s approval rating in Gallup’s rolling survey has plunged 6 percentage points in two weeks, a troubling sign that puts him on shaky historical ground for re-election.

Obama’s approval rating is down to just 46 percent, down from a high of 52 percent after the Democratic National Convention. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, now stands at 48 percent, up from 42 percent after the DNC. Altogether, that’s a 12-point swing in two weeks.

Recall why the 50 percent threshold is important, per Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

Don’t expect this to make any headlines.

Via: Human Events

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Majority in U.S. Still Say Government Doing Too Much

But fewer Americans now say government has too much power

PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans (54%) continue to believe the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses, although that is down from the record high of 61% earlier this summer. About four in 10 Americans (39%) say the government should do more to solve the nation's problems.

Track the 2012 race and compare it to past elections >

Only a few times in Gallup's 20-year history of asking this question has a higher percentage of Americans said the government should do more to solve the nation's problems than said the government is doing too much. Two of these were in the fall of 1992 and again in early 1993, as Bill Clinton ran for and took office as president. Another was in October 2001, just after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and at a time when Americans were especially supportive of government and its efforts to help the nation recover from the attacks and retaliate against those who were responsible.

Americans have been most likely to say the government was attempting to do too much during the middle years of the Clinton administration, and in recent years during the Obama administration.

Via: Gallup

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The Real Facts: Unemployment at 19%

Beneath the surface of Friday's jobs report lies the reality of just how disastrous the Obama economy truly is.

Consider the following 11 economic facts:

1.  When you include the underutilized labor figure with the eight million Americans who have lost hope altogether and stopped looking for a job, real unemployment now stands at just under 19 percent.

2.  If the labor force were the same as when President Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate reported on Friday would be 11.2 percent. 

3.  A record 88,921,000 Americans are no longer in the labor force. To be included in that figure, an individual must be over 16 years of age, a civilian, not in a mental hospital or nursing home, and have stopped hunting for a job for at least four weeks.

4.  The average American lost 40 percent of their wealth from 2007 to 2010. 

5.  Every fifth man in America is out of work.

6.  One out of two Americans are now low-income or below the poverty line.  

7.  Over the past four years, 400,000 food stamp recipients a month have been added to the welfare dole. 

8.  In 2006-2007, 90 percent of college graduates landed jobs. Under Obama, just 56 percent find work after college.

9.  A gallon of gasoline cost $1.84 when Obama entered office. Today, a gallon of gas costs$3.77. 

10.  Every fourth home mortgage in America is underwater. 

11.  Under Obama, healthcare costs have skyrocketed 18.9 percent.

The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Mr. Obama leading Republican challenger Mitt Romney 49 to 45 percent.

Gallup: Americans Rate Public Schools the Worst Place to Educate Children

(CNSNews.com) - A new Gallup pollreleased today indicates that Americans rate public schools the worst place to educate children.

In the national survey conducted Aug. 9-12, private independent schools, parochial and church-related schools, charter schools and home-schooling all rated higher than public schools.

Gallup interviewers asked respondents: "I’m going to read a list of ways in which children are educated in the U.S. today. As I read each one, please indicate--based on what you know or have read and heard--how good an education each provides children--excellent, good, only fair, or poor. How about: public schools, parochial or church-related schools, independent private schools, charter schools, or home-schooling?"

Only 5 percent said they believe public schools give children an excellent eduction.

Another 32 percent said they believe public schools give children a good education. But this combined 37 percent who said public schools give children an excellent or good education was the lowest among the different types of schools Gallup included in its survey.

Via: CNSNews

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Unemployment Rates to be Reported Friday April 6

On Friday April 6 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report the March unemployment numbers. We should be reminded again that it does not even come close to painting the real picture of what's going on.  Regardless of the results the democrats have only one way to spin it and as much as we like to hear positive news when it comes to the economy, it still smells fishy.  The four week moving average for new claims according to the BLS is 365,000 vs. 401,000 for the same period in 2011.  

The December unemployment rate was 8.7% and dropped to 8.3% for January and February. This only tells part of the story as 1.2 million employable people dropped off the radar or just stopped looking. The participation rate which measures the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population climbed slightly to 63.9% in February from 63.7% in January.  The participation rate is the lowest since 1984. In the 2011 the civilian population rose by almost 3.6 million, yet the labor force only rose 1.1 million. Those not in the labor force rose by almost 2.5 million. If people were not dropping out of the labor force the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.  According to Gallup, the underemployment rate is hovering around 18%.

It will come as no surprise to anyone that at the rate we are creating jobs it will be at least three years before we even come close to creating enough jobs to get it down to the level of the Bush years (4.0 to 5.8%) (BLS). Gallup is predicting a rate of 8.6% and In-Trade is looking at 8.8% for March 2012.  This will not be good news for the Obama Administration who is coming off a week of missteps, misspeaks and blunders. One can only wonder when the hemorrhaging is going to stop.