Obama campaign now buying ads in … Detroit

Via Mark Halperin and Jim Geraghty, who points out that Detroit’s TV market doesn’t reach Ohio. This is all about defending Michigan, which would have seemed crazy a month ago but now, in a world where The One is under 50 percent in Oregon, makes lots of sense. This is, after all, a state capable of electing a Republican governor (by a landslide) and a Republican legislature, and there’s a native son at the top of the GOP ticket. The last poll of Michigan — taken one week ago — showed a dead heat. I wonder what those Hopenchange internal numbers are showing right now. From Halperin:

An Obama aide tells me this on the Michigan ad buy:

“Restore Our Future went up with a $2 million buy in Michigan. We’re matching states where they go up. We’re not going to let them make a play anywhere.”

Both sides have enough money for these end-game ad forays. The real issues remain candidate time/visits, the psy-ops involved here, and the belief of some Republicans that a combination of Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could surprise on Election Day.

My only question: How likely is it that any of those three states comes through for Romney if Ohio doesn’t? And if Ohio comes through, why do we need any of those states? Seems like maybe the Romney Super PAC’s ad buy is less about stealing Michigan to capture the presidency even if Ohio falls through than it is (a) forcing Obama to divert money to a formerly “safe” state, and (b) increasing the odds of a big red wave if there’s a final small tilt towards Romney nationally (or regionally) over the next seven days. In that case, he wouldn’t “need” Michigan to win but it’d be lovely to have it as proof of a mandate to govern, and that’ll come in handy in twisting Democratic arms during those fiscal cliff/deficit reduction negotiations.

Elsewhere in “painting the map red” news: Romney just went up with his first ad in Pennsylvania, a state that ABC moved from “safe Democratic” to “lean Democratic” just yesterday — along with Minnesota. In the northwest, Team Mitt may be eyeing not only Oregon but even Washington state(!) as having turned more purplish than anticipated. And here’s a new ad from Citizens United that’s going up in Wisconsin and New Hampshire — a.k.a. Romney’s Plan B — but it’s not aimed at drumming up GOP turnout. In fact, it’s airing not on Fox News but on CNN and MSNBC. When you watch, you’ll understand why.

Via: Hot Air
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Proposal 4: SEIU union pumps money into Michigan's home health ballot measure

LANSING, MI – The Service Employees International Union has kicked in at least $5.5 million to support Michigan’s Proposal 4, according to campaign finance reports, but it's not clear if more SEIU money is involved.

Proposal 4 on the Nov. 6 ballot would amend the Michigan constitution to create a home healthcare registry and give workers some limited collective bargaining rights. The workers involved would be represented by the SEIU.

The main committee supporting Proposal 4 – Citizens for Affordable Quality Home Care – reported raising roughly $9 million overall. The money is listed as coming from Home Care First Inc.

According to Dohn Hoyle, co-chair of Citizens for Affordable Quality Home Care: “Home Care First Inc. is a 501(c)(4) non-profit organization formed and supported by Michigan’s leading senior and disability rights groups. Home Care First — along with the Michigan Disability Rights Coalition, Michigan Paralyzed Veterans of America, the Area Agencies on Aging Association of Michigan, the Arc Michigan and many more — strongly supports Proposal 4 ... "

Supporters of Proposal 4 have said there’s nothing secretive about their campaign. But former Attorney General Mike Cox has called Home Care First “clandestine” because there hasn't been full disclosure of donors.

Citizens Protecting Michigan’s Constitution is a coalition that opposes Proposal 2, 3 and 4. Nick De Leeuw, a spokesman for Citizens Protecting Michigan’s Constitution, said $1.4 million has been spent on Proposal 4.

Citizens Protecting Michigan’s Constitution is a coalition that includes the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and other business groups.

Via: Michigan Live

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Pennsylvania Ripe for the Picking

Pennsylvania is approaching the Nov. 6 presidential election with 3 percent fewer registered voters than in fall 2008, an unusual slip that political analysts blame on a drop in voter enthusiasm across the country.

Democrats especially experienced a slump, bleeding 229,396 registered voters in Pennsylvania since the last presidential race, state data show. Republicans are down 112,796 registrants, but voters unconnected to either major party grew by 7 percent, or 73,043, according to Pennsylvania Department of State figures. As of Monday the state had 8,487,093 voters, down from 8,755,588 in November 2008, despite a 2 percent population gain. Democrats still hold a 50-37 percentage registration edge over Republicans, down one point from 2008.

The registration deadline for the election was Oct. 9.

“This year, we don’t have such a sense that this election is going to make history the way we did in 2008,” said Pat Dunham, chairwoman of the political science department at Duquesne University. “Enthusiasm in general may have dampened a little. Three-and-a-half years after electing Barack Obama, we see it’s not that easy to change things. ”

For Democrats in particular, “there’s not the same excitement” as four years ago, when the party tallied thousands of registrations, said political analyst Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“There are probably no states that have had incredible increases in voter registration” this time, Skelley said.

Swing states that are losing that status may experience declines in voter registration when candidate visits and advertising shift to areas more in play, political scientists said.

Pennsylvania, which typically votes Democrat for presidents, joined Michigan, Indiana and Missouri to become less of a swing state, said Keystone College professor Jeff Brauer.

Via: Trib Live

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Obama Collapse: Romney Tied In Michigan

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)^B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election. 

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama             46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney            46.56%
another candidate            2.30%
Undecided             4.23%

Via: MyFoxDetroit

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THE BIG FAIL: Obama’s Boasting Of A Manufacturing Resurgence On TheCampaign Trail Doesn’t Match The Facts On The Ground

OBAMA TOUTS A MANUFACTURING COMEBACK THAT DOESN’T EXIST IN THE STATES

The Latest Bureau Of Labor Statistics Report Shows Manufacturing Jobs Declined In September In 31 States. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, 10/19/12)

Colorado

In September, Colorado Lost 1000 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

• Since Obama Took Office, Colorado Has Lost 5,000 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

Iowa

In September, Iowa Lost 600 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

Michigan

In September, Michigan Lost 900 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

Nevada

In September, Nevada Lost 100 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

• Since Obama Took Office, Nevada Has Lost 6,900 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

New Hampshire

In September, New Hampshire Lost 100 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

• Since Obama Took Office, New Hampshire Has Lost 6,800 Manufacturing Jobs.(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/19/12)

Via: GOP.Com

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Poll: Romney’s Likeability Numbers Skyrocket In Wake Of Debate…

Mitt Romney is finally getting his Sally Field moment: They like him. At least more than they used to.

President Barack Obama clings to a 1 percentage-point national lead in a head-to-head matchup with the GOP nominee, but the first presidential debate has significantly improved Romney’s personal image.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before. Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.

Even as the head-to-head number held stubbornly steady for the past month, Romney improved his likability numbers. A slim majority, 51 percent, now views Romney favorably as a person, while 44 percent views him unfavorably.

The former Massachusetts governor had been underwater on this measure. In mid-September, 49 percent of respondents viewed him unfavorably. Going into the first presidential debate in Denver on Oct. 3, the electorate was evenly split 47 percent to 47 percent on what to make of Romney

.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats continue to hold a 2 percentage-point edge, 46 percent to 44 percent, over Republicans.

POLITICO considers the 10 competitive battlegrounds to be Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

VIa: Politico

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More polls: Romney now within three points in Michigan,

In case there was any lingering shred of doubt that Romney helped himself considerably last week, this ought to finish it off. Michigan:

Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points…

“Romney has come back like gangbusters,” said EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. “Whether or not it’s long-lasting, only time will tell, but probably the remaining debates will be key.”

Conducted in the three days following the Wednesday debate, the poll showed more than five times as many Michiganders interviewed named Romney, not Obama, as the debate’s winner. Romney’s numbers improved most dramatically among independent and undecided voters.

Worth noting: Per the article, Romney’s closing the gap on O in Michigan even while other prominent Dems are expanding their leads. Debbie Stabenow went from being 11 points up on Pete Hoekstra last month to 20 points up now. That’s in line with Obama’s 2008 margin in Michigan of 16.5 points. Fast forward four years and she’s keeping pace with that advantage while he’s … now statistically tied with his Republican challenger. Must be a lot of left-leaning independents thinking of splitting their ballot to produce a result like that.

Via: Hot Air

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Union Contract: Teachers Can Be Caught In School Drunk Five Times and On Drugs Three Times Before Being Fired

Forget zero tolerance. Bay City Public School teachers for years could be caught repeatedly under the influence of illegal drugs or alcohol without being fired.

Teachers in possession or under the influence of illegal drugs could be caught three times before they lost their job, and they got five strikes if they were drunk on school grounds before being fired. A school district official said the language in the union contract that protects teachers for those instances "was incorporated into the teacher Master Agreement in 1997."

Those protections also were included in the Bay City Education Association teacher’s contract that was agreed to in January in section 16.1300 "Controlled Substances" on page 92. That contract expired June 30 and negotiations on a new contract are ongoing.

Students weren’t given as many chances. The code of conduct for middle school and high school students states that if they are found to be under the influence or in possession of illegal drugs, they get a 5-day suspension or a 3-day suspension with counseling on the first offense.

A teacher caught selling drugs in class would get a 3-day suspension without pay with mandatory counseling, but wouldn’t be fired unless the teacher did it a second time.

"They must have had been high to approve that contract because no sober person would agree to that kind of policy," said Leon Drolet, chairman of the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance. "The role models are held to a lower standard than the students. That just sends a horrible message. If anything is indicative of how far school boards are willing to bend to kiss the rings of union leaders, this is it.

"That is an absolute disgrace," he said.

The provision of the teachers' contract that allowed up to five strikes for being under the influence of alcohol and three strikes for being under the influence of illegal drugs before being fired was ruled as unenforceable by Public Act 103 in July 2011. However, the union contract states that if Public Act 103 is struck down, the policy goes back into effect for teachers.

Via:Michigan Capitol Confidential

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Chevy Volt Battery Plant Struggling Despite $151M From Obama Admin

Another in a long list of Obama-touted and tax-supported "green energy" companies is on the verge of going out of business, this time in Michigan.

Two years ago, President Obama visited the LG Chem battery plant in Holland, Michigan. He then hailed the plant, saying, "You are leading the way in showing how manufacturing jobs are coming right back here to the United States of America."

But today, those LG Chem jobs Obama claimed were "coming back" are seeing intermittent layoffs instead of growth.

In 2010, the plant, which supplies batteries for the Chevy Volt, received $151 million in tax money from the U.S. Department of Energy, but it has been good money after bad.

Today, $133 million of that $151 million has been spent, but since April, the company's 200 workers have been on "rolling furloughs" because the electric vehicle market has failed to blossom as promised by many.

In 2010, the plant was projected to create 443 new jobs within five years. Those projections have been shelved as the company says it can't predict when the furloughs will stop for its current employees.

A second Chevy Volt battery plant in Michigan has also been forced to implement layoffs due to the failure of the electric car market in the U.S.

Lithium-ion battery manufacturer A123 Systems was awarded $249 million in federal government tax dollars but ended up laying off employees despite the government's cash infusion. The plant might have closed entirely if China hadn't invested an additional $465 million in the plant. Even still, its future is murky.

Via: Breitbart

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DESPITE MEDIA HYPE, NO BOUNCE FOR OBAMA IN SWING STATES

Politico’s “Unnamed Sources” say Ohio is lost for Mitt Romney. Like hell it is. They say Obama got a serious bounce from the DNC. Like hell he did.

Whatever bounce Obama got was in the blue states. In the swing states, it’s still way too close to call. Today’s Rasmussen poll results show that in the eleven swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, which total 145 electoral votes, it’s Obama 46% and Romney 45%. In 2008, Obama won these states 53% to 46%.

So how does the MSM try to spin the evidence so Obama looks like he’s unbeatable? Let’s look at Ohio, for example. Politico reported (using uncredited sources, of course), that Ohio is lost for Romney:

“Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now.”

I didn’t know Axelrod and Plouffe were working for Romney, but hey, they’ll go where the money is.

But, as usual, Politico was relying on Obama-leaning polls to support their narrative; yesterday the PPP poll (which is always weighted toward Obama because of PPP’s affiliation with the SEIU) showed Obama up by five in Ohio.  Hmmm. According to the Gravis marketing poll taken last Tuesday, Romney was up three in Ohio. Who’s telling the truth?

Consider these:

Example #1.  On August 14, the PPP poll showed Obama up three in Ohio, while the same day Rasmussen Reports showed Romney and Obama tied.

Example #2: Last Monday PPP showed Obama tied with Romney in North Carolina, while the Elon University/Charlotte Observer poll, a local state poll, showed Romney up by four.

But Politico won’t be denied their mission to say whatever they can to disillusion Romney’s base, and they make no bones about using uncredited sources; as Politico reporter Jonathan Martin said last month when Politico quoted unnamed sources in a story about Republicans unhappy about the selection of Paul Ryan (what?????):

We were candid about the sourcing on that, as you mentioned, Howie, and basically say to our readers, ‘Look, folks don’t want to put their names [on] the charges. If you don’t want to read Politico, that’s fine.’

Every race in the swing states is close right now, and the unconscionable skewing of the polls by the MSM shouldn’t discourage Republicans. The MSM has lied before, they are lying now, and they will lie in the future. The Obama campaign has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Romney, they have the power of incumbency, and Romney simply is not going away. And all of this is before Romney has even attacked Obama in ads and the debates.

Hey, Dems, this show ain’t even close to over; we’re just getting warmed up.

Via: Breitbart

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Taxpayer-funded youth outreach: 435 visits by Obama admin to campuses since 2011

President Obama and his administration officials have made 435 taxpayer-funded visits to college campuses or other events targeting students since March 2011 , including 166 trips to battleground states, a new study shows.

“The travel is not tied to trying to pass a specific piece of legislation,” Paul Conway, president of the influential youth group, Generation Opportunity, told The Washington Examiner. “It’s all travel specifically targeted to a demographic. And when you think about how important a role young voters play in [Obama's] coalition, then it’s not just by happenstance.”

According to the study, which surveyed administration announcements and media reports,Virginia students have received 34 visits –  more than any other state — from Obama or his representatives. That number is doubtless inflated by the convenience of traveling a relatively short distance for events, but the state also plays a crucial role in his re-election efforts.

“If we win Virginia, we will win this election,” Obama said at a high school in Leesburg, Va., during a recent campaign stop. California and New York — in fairness, two deep-blue states — rank second and third for administration visits to students, but Pennsylvania comes in fourth with 22.

North Carolina, which saw Obama recently “slow-jam the news” with Jimmy Fallon during an official event focused om student loans at the state’s flagship university, has received 19 visits. Students in other key battleground states have also received significant attention, especially Florida (17), Colorado (15),  Michigan and Ohio (14 each). Students in Iowa and New Hampshire got nine visits each from the official Obama team, while Wisconsin edged New Mexico by getting six visits to its campuses, rather than five. The Obama administration visited students in Nevada twice.

Via: The Examiner

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UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP IN 44 STATES IN JULY

WASHINGTON - Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, the most states to show a monthly increase in more than three years and a reflection of weak hiring nationwide.

The Labor Department said Friday that unemployment rates fell in only two states and were unchanged in four.

Unemployment rates rose in nine states that are considered battlegrounds in the presidential election. That trend, if it continued, could pose a threat to President Barack Obama's re-election bid in less than three months.

Nationwide, hiring improved in July after three months of tepid job gains. But the national unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent. Monthly job gains have averaged 150,000 this year. That's barely enough to accommodate population growth. As a result, the unemployment rate is the same as when the year began.

Still, 31 states gained jobs in July, while 19 lost them. Unemployment rates can rise in a state even when more jobs are created if more people start looking for work. People who are out of work are counted as unemployed only if they're looking for a job.

Via: Newsday
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Family Business Sticks to Principles, Challenges Obamacare Mandate

The Obama administration’s anti-conscience mandate went into effect at the beginning of this month, and private business owners are now required to cover contraceptive care in employee health plans thanks to Obamacare.

Weingartz, a family owned lawn supply store in Michigan, is one of several businesses challenging that mandate in court, saying it requires business owners to violate their religious beliefs.

“As people of faith … we’ve looked at our business as an extension of that faith and we’ve always tried to run it in a way that’s compatible with our faith,” Daniel Weingartz, the company president, said. “We’ve never had to go against something that was against our religious principles in order to run our business. In 67 years, we’ve held true to that.”

Weingartz is not complying with the anti-conscience mandate, but will not face penalties until its health insurance plan renews in January. At that time, the company could be fined up to $100 per employee per day for not including the mandated services in its plan. Ironically, the fine for offering a plan that doesn’t comply with the mandate could exceed the fine for not offering health insurance at all. Under Obamacare, the fine for not offering employees health insurance is $2,000 a year per employee.

Via: The Foundry

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