Chart of the Week: Slowest Economic Recovery Since the 1960s

Americans could be waiting another five years for a return to normal employment based on the sluggish pace of the U.S. economy. After nearly four years in office, President Obama has overseen the worst recovery since the 1960s.

Via: The Foundry

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It Begins: ADP Cuts September Job Creation Numbers By Almost 50%…

Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.

The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor's September job creation household survey net total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector.

The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent. Separately, as the government's establishment survey said the total number of new private-sector workers swelled by 873,000. (Read More: Consumer Prices Rise on Energy Surge; No Pay Gains)

Economists expect Friday's report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.

When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.

The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

Moody's economist Mark Zandi did not return a request for comment.

Via: CNBC

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Candy Crowley Let Obama Have Last Word 8 Out Of 11 Times…

What are the odds for getting the last word in a debate with Barack Obama? If the moderator is Obama-sycophant Candy Crowley, the odds are 8 to 3 against you.

That’s what happened to Mitt Romney in the second presidential debate. Of the eleven questions Crowley allowed to be asked, eight times Obama got the last word, while Crowley deigned to give Romney only three.

Not only did Obama receive three more minutes to speak, he was also given the gift of ending the discussion. Here’s how it played out:

1. Employment on graduation: Romney then Obama; followup: Romney then Obama

2. Secretary Chu and Gas Prices: Obama then Romney; followup: Obama then Romney; 2nd followup: Obama

3. Romney’s tax plans, deductions & credits: Romney then Obama then Romney; followup to Obama; 2nd followup to Romney

4. Female wages: Obama then Romney then Obama

5. Romney like Bush: Romney then Obama

6. Not optimistic, expensive prices: Obama then Romney

7. Immigration: Romney then Obama

8. Benghazi: Obama then Romney; followup: Obama then Romney

9. Assault weapons: Obama then Romney; followup: Romney then Obama

10. Outsourcing: Romney then Obama; followup: Romney then Obama

11. Misperception about candidate: Romney then Obama

The only reason the number favors Obama 8 to 3 and not 9 to 2 is that on question 8, Obama made the last speech, but Romney had the floor at the end, when he bantered with Obama.

Not only did Crowley interrupt Romney far more times than Obama, 28 to 9, and treat Romney with great disrespect, she was determined to obstruct him from having the last word. She was in league with Obama from the start.

But in the end, the last word will rest with the American people, and they know a rat when they see one. Or, in this case, two.

Via: Breitbart

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FUZZY MATH?: CNBC DESCRIBES NEW UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS AS 'CONTRADICTORY'

As soon as ex-General Electric CEO Jack Welch fired off a tweet questioning today's just released "unbelievable jobs numbers," the media went into a frenzy talking about how "conservatives" were launching conspiracy theories. Well, that's handy for the media and the Obama campaign, but it's not just "conservatives" who are confused by a full 0.3% drop in unemployment when only 114k jobs were created.

CNBC is as confused as the rest of us:

Job growth remained tame in September, with the economy creating just 114,000 net new positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent, the first time it has been below 8 percent in 43 months.

The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.

The falling jobless rate had been a function as much of the continued shrinking in the labor force as it was an increase in new positions.

On the air, CNBC seemed equally perplexed by the biggest one-time drop in the unemployment rate in 29 years!

ABC News' Chris Cuomo is also skeptical of the numbers:

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Chris Cuomo

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@ChrisCuomo

#unemployment is at 7.8% in September. Except it really wasn't. It is much higher, w/ underemplyd and those who stopped looking.#notfixed

5 Oct 12

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That "not fixed" tag smells a little like sarcasm to me.

Adding to the mystery is the fact that the U-6,  the longtime underemployment and unemployment number, remained fixed at a dismal 14.7%.

Via: Breitbart

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BUSH TAX CUTS VS. OBAMA STIMULUS

President Barack Obama is presiding over what even CBS News admits is “the worst economic recovery America has ever had.” During this “recovery,” unemployment has been over 8 percent for 43 months in a row. The President has tried to spin his way out of these numbers, recently announcing, “Today we learned that after losing around 800,000 jobs a month when I took office,business once again added jobs for the 30th month in a row, a total of 4.6 million jobs.” While not perfect, he admits, this performance is better than what we can expect to see under President Romney, who wants to return, says Obama, to “the failed policies of the past,” that is, to “the same tax cuts and deregulation agenda that helped get us into this mess in the first place.”

BUNK.

The idea that George W. Bush was some kind of deregulator is easily debunked: as Obama himself admitted, “I have approved fewer regulations in the first three years of my presidency than my Republican predecessor did in his.”

But Bush did indeed cut taxes, most notably in 2003. Did that policy “fail”? How did it’s results compare to Obama’s record?

It’s true that the private sector has added 4.6 million new jobs over the past 30 months. But during the 30 months after the Bush tax cuts went into effect in August 2003, the private sector actually added even more jobs – 5.3 million according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey.

Via: Human Events

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Unemployment Drops To 5.1%-For Government Workers, Lowest Among All Industries

(CNSNews.com) - There was good news for American workers in August—if government was their employer.

The unemployment rate for government wage and salaries workers dropped from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August. At the same time, the number of government wage and salary workers counted as unemployed dropped by 123,000 people from 1,182,000 in July to 1,059,000 in August.

The overall national unemployment rate was 8.1 percent in August.

A year ago, in August 2011, there were 1,271,000 unemployed government wage and salary workers. So, the number of unemployed government workers has dropped by 212,000 since then.

The unemployment numbers for government workers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are not seasonally adjusted.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts someone as a government wage and salary worker if they are not in the military and they are currently employed by any level of government—local, state or federal—or they are unemployed, they are looking for work, and their last job was for any level of government.

The 5.1 percent unemployment rate for government workers was the lowest unemployment rate for any of 17 different categories and subcategories of industries for which employment is tracked and published on a month-to-month basis by the Department of Labor. These include nonagricultural private wage and salary workers; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction workers; construction workers; manufacturing workers; durable goods manufacturing workers; nondurable goods manufacturing workers; wholesale and retail trade workers; transportation and utilities workers; information workers; financial activities workers; professional and business services workers; education and health services workers; leisure and hospitality workers; workers in other services; agricultural and related private wage and salary workers; and self-employed, unincorporated and unpaid family workers.

Via: CNSNews

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Cutter: An incomplete is a totally awesome grade after four years

We’ve been waiting for the Barack Obama re-election campaign to come up with a new slogan ever since they added a period to “FORWARD.”  If the last 24 hours are any indication, the new slogan is either “INCOMPLETE” or possibly “GIVE ME ONE MORE CHANCE.”  After Barack Obama gave himself an “incomplete” on the economy in a Colorado Springs TV news interview last night, ABC’s Jake Tapper asks Team Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter whether that “cut[s] it” as an answer.  Absolutely, Cutter responds:

TAPPER: “So President Obama was asked recently about the grade he would give himself. And once again he gave himself an incomplete. It’s been four years. Does that answer cut it? An incomplete after a full term?”

CUTTER: “Yeah, it does, because, you know, once again I’ll remind you of what life was like when he took office. 800,000 jobs were lost in that month alone. 3.5 million in the 6 months prior. And, you know, pretty quickly he was able to turn job loss into job growth. But when he’s saying incomplete, it means a number of different things. One: we’re on a path forward. You know, we’re on our way up. And there is a lot more that he wants to get done. He’s not done yet.”

We’re moving forward?  Really?  Unemployment has been above 8% since before the recovery began, and we’ve only averaged an additional 66,000 jobs per months since — far below the level needed to keep up with population growth.  Once again, here’s the latest from the BLS on the civilian participation rate, which started at 65.7% when Obama took office and was at the same level when the recovery began in June 2009 — but has plunged ever since, to a 30-year low:

Cutter says, “He’s not done yet.”  That’s what keeps many of us awake at night.

Via: Hot Air

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Study: Most Jobs In ‘Economic Recovery’ Are Low Paying

Lower-paying jobs, with median hourly wages from $7.69 to $13.83, made up about 58% of the job growth from the end of the recession in late 2009 through early 2012.

WASHINGTON — Whereas 6 in 10 jobs lost during the Great Recession paid mid-level wages, the majority of jobs created in the recovery — positions such as store clerks, laborers and home healthcare aides — pay much less, according to a new study.

The findings highlight concerns about a shrinking middle class and pose another obstacle to getting the economy back on track, said Annette Bernhardt, policy co-director at the National Employment Law Project, which conducted the study.

"The recovery continues to be skewed toward low-wage jobs, reinforcing the rise in inequality and America's deficit of good jobs," she said. "While there's understandably a lot of focus on getting employment back to pre-recession levels, the quality of jobs is rapidly emerging as a second front in the struggling recovery."

Lower-paying jobs, with median hourly wages from $7.69 to $13.83, accounted for just 21% of the job losses during the recession. But they've made up about 58% of the job growth from the end of the recession in late 2009 through early 2012.

Those jobs have been concentrated in three industries: food services, retail and employment services, such as office clerks and customer service representatives, the study found.

In contrast, mid-wage occupations with median hourly wages from $13.84 to $21.13 — jobs such as construction workers, real estate brokers and data entry clerks — have accounted for just 22% of the new jobs in the recovery after making up 60% of the job losses in the recession.

Higher-wage occupations, with median hourly pay above $21.13, accounted for about 19% of the recession job losses and have made up about 20% of the jobs gained in the recovery, the study said.

The study covered jobs created from the first quarter of 2010 through the first quarter of 2012.

The recession and its aftermath have exacerbated a three-decade trend of growing wage inequality fueled by a shrinking number of mid-wage jobs, the study said.

Since the first quarter of 2001, employment in mid-wage jobs has decreased 7.3%. Meanwhile, lower-wage jobs have grown 8.7% and higher-wage jobs have increased 6.6%.

"The economy has fewer good jobs now than it did at the start of the 21st century," said Bernhardt, the study's coauthor.

She said there was no "single magic bullet" to reverse the trend.

But Washington officials could help improve the situation, Bernhardt added, by extending unemployment benefits, raising the minimum wage and enacting policies to stimulate job growth in highway construction and other infrastructure work, as well as helping prevent layoffs of teachers, police officers and firefighters.

Via: LA Times

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UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP IN 44 STATES IN JULY

WASHINGTON - Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, the most states to show a monthly increase in more than three years and a reflection of weak hiring nationwide.

The Labor Department said Friday that unemployment rates fell in only two states and were unchanged in four.

Unemployment rates rose in nine states that are considered battlegrounds in the presidential election. That trend, if it continued, could pose a threat to President Barack Obama's re-election bid in less than three months.

Nationwide, hiring improved in July after three months of tepid job gains. But the national unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent. Monthly job gains have averaged 150,000 this year. That's barely enough to accommodate population growth. As a result, the unemployment rate is the same as when the year began.

Still, 31 states gained jobs in July, while 19 lost them. Unemployment rates can rise in a state even when more jobs are created if more people start looking for work. People who are out of work are counted as unemployed only if they're looking for a job.

Via: Newsday
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