Saturday, November 30, 2013

Six Months to Doomsday

The normal news programs were suspended, and President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry occupied our TV sets. The news was stupendous: Iran has agreed to back down from the nuclear weapons program it had previously claimed it was not engaged in. But while Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry talked long, they said very little. Rather than announcing details of a plan in which Iran allows inspectors to supervise the destruction of its stockpiles and fabrication equipment, Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry talked about how sanctions were only one piece of the equation, how Iran would get the chance to prove its intentions, and asked, "what are the alternatives?" Words of surrender. The deal fell far short of the hype. Iran has agreed that if some sanctions are lifted, then within six months, Iran will dilute its existing stockpile of 20% enriched uranium and will stop expanding its program. So what could happen in six months under these terms?
It took Iran from early 2009 until November 2013 to produce 200 kg of 20% enriched uranium. Some simple math would suggest a rate of 40 kg per year, but Iran greatly increased its production capabilities during that time, and can probably produce upwards of 1,000 kg per year, enough for about 7 bombs every year (1.7 months per bomb). In terms of Iran's current production capabilities, six months is a long time. Their current program needs to shrink, but this deal keeps it in place.

Via: American Thinker


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