Republicans have the majority in their sights, but they haven't expanded the playing field.
The battle for the Senate is primed to go down to the wire. Democrats can lose up to five seats while retaining the majority—assuming Cory Booker wins October's special election in New Jersey—but the party is threatened by members facing tough races in the Deep South and other conservative states. Already, races for three Democratic-held open seats (Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) are favoring Republicans, and Sen. Mark Pryor is looking in tenuous shape in Arkansas.
But as strong a cycle as this is looking for Republicans, that's as attributable to the very conservative bent of the "playing field" as it is to the environment or strong recruitment. Democratic Sens. Al Franken, Mark Udall, Jeanne Shaheen, and Mark Warner look like solid favorites to win second terms, without facing formidable opposition (yet). Republicans have struggled with recruitment in Iowa with a muddled field of candidates, and in Michigan, where the party isn't thrilled with its likely nominee, Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.
These are all battleground states, and the lack of quality candidates doesn't give the GOP much margin for error in winning a majority. Democrats, meanwhile, landed solid candidates in states where the party faces longer odds: Kentucky and Georgia.
So bet on a late night next November to see which party runs the show. One intriguing scenario for political junkies: Republicans take enough seats to win control, but GOP Leader Mitch McConnell loses his own race, costing the party. That's not likely, but it's not impossible, either.
Here are The Hotline's inaugural 2014 Senate rankings of the seats most likely to switch parties. (We're not including New Jersey on the list, which was held by Democrats until Gov. Chris Christie appointed GOP Sen. Jeff Chiesa on an interim basis.)
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