Odds Strong on GOP Keeping House Control in 2014

For all the reports of national Democrats drawing targets on enough Republican-held seats to recapture control of the House in 2014, the odds are strong that Republicans will hold on to their majority in the last mid-term election of the Obama administration.

The arithmetic favors the Republicans in the upcoming campaign, in which voters decide the fate of all 435 House members.

The current make-up of the House is 233 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and two vacancies. Upcoming special elections to fill the vacancies in Alabama and Massachusetts will almost give one seat to each party.

Democratic strategists frequently speak of "the magic 17" —the number of districts carried by President Barack Obama in 2012 in which voters also sent a Republican to the House. Victories in all 17 districts by Democratic candidates would mean a recapture of the Democratic majority in the House, with 218 seats to 217 for the Republicans.

In a memo marked "Please Do Not Share This List With the Press" but obtained by Roll Call last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named the 17 Republican-held seats they are targeting. Among those on the list were such narrow 2012 winners as Republican Reps. Mike Coffman of Colorado, Lee Terry of Nebraska, and Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. 

But this strategy depends on Democrats winning everything they target and Republicans picking up nothing. That means, as House editor David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said, "There's basically no margin of error for House Democrats."

Via: Newsmax

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