Health care wonks are crowing about a "November surge" in enrollment. Will the November surge will be able to make up for the October purge, i.e. the millions who were dropped from existing plans because of Obamacare's new minimum standards for coverage? In California, there is reason to think it may not.
In a piece posted at Wonkblog Friday, author Sarah Kliff introduced the term "November surge" into the discussion of enrollment figures. According to Kliff, the uptick in enrollment, especially in California, is reason for optimism:Some state-based marketplaces had a pretty smooth launch, and are seeing the pace of enrollment speed up daily. California has lead [led] the bunch; the state's enrollments have grown steadily in November and now account for nearly a full third of all health law sign-ups. The state has had its strongest two weeks of enrollment this month.
The enrollment surge in California, and the idea that it was part of a broader pattern, was first reported by LA Times health writer Noam Levey a week ago. Levey's piece was widely quoted, including by Sarah Kliff, but his claims did not stand up to much scrutiny. For instance, Levey claimed that Kentucky was "outpacing" its enrollment estimates. A spokesperson for the state says no such estimates exist.
Both Levey and Kliff fail to ask the most important question. How soon will current enrollment trends balance out the number of people who have been dropped from their insurance as a result of Obamacare grandfathering regulations? In other words, can a November surge make up for the October purge?
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