Obamacare concern: Health care users start to get kicked off insurance plans

Boehner predicts more losers than winners by end of month

The health care law’s honeymoon period is over.

For several years, Obamacare provided new benefits: Children could stay on their parents’ plans longer, insurance companies couldn’t impose lifetime benefit caps, and seniors got extra help in buying prescription drugs. But during the past two months, some consumers have been kicked off plans, and they and others are having to navigate the complexities of health care exchanges.

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SEE ALSO: More Democrats push for delay in Obamacare mandate

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House Speaker John A. Boehner, Ohio Republican, said Wednesday that more people have been kicked out of their health care plans thanks to recently activated provisions than have been able to sign up in the exchanges — an equation he said underscored the problems with the law.

“When you begin to look at these hundreds of thousands of people, I think what you’re going to see at the end of October are more Americans are going to lose their health insurance than are going to sign up at these exchanges,” Mr. Boehner told reporters.

Consumers have reported tremendous difficulties in signing up through the federal online portal, HealthCare.gov. That has led Republicans and even some Democrats to urge President Obama to extend the enrollment period and/or delay imposing tax penalties on those who fail to sign up — thus violating the law’s “individual mandate” requiring most Americans to get insurance.

As those difficulties emerge, meanwhile, Kaiser Health News reported this week that hundreds of thousands of Americans have received notices from their insurers canceling their policies: 300,000 from Florida Blue and 160,000 from Kaiser Permanente in California, in addition to thousands from other major insurers.

Via: Washington Times

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Premiums for young healthy people will jump in 45 states under Obamacare

Young people in 45 states will see their health insurance premiums increase under Obamacare because the law relies on the money they pay into the system to offset the cost of caring for older enrollees, according to a new study.

Virginia leads the pack, as individuals aged 27 and under will see their health insurance premiums jump by 252.5 percent -- $416.55 -- according to the Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis.

Virginians under the age of 50 will see their premiums jump by an even greater percentage, rising from $228 to $991.03.

Such increases are not a surprise to the law's architects. “I have always said when looking at this bill, that if I were a young person, I can see elements of this bill that I wouldn't like in the short run,” Henry Aaron, vice chairman of the D.C. health exchange, told the Washington Examinerlast November.

Heritage expects monthly premiums for young people to drop in Colorado, Ohio, New York, Rhode Island, and New Jersey, "because those states had already over-regulated insurance markets that led to sharply higher premiums through adverse selection," according to study author Drew Gonshorowski.

The Heritage Foundation's Chairman Jim Demint cited the premium increases as one of the chief reasons his organization pushed for lawmakers to defund Obamacare most recent continuing resolution to fund government in the absence of a proper budget.

Demint argued that the defund push preserved one policy victory on spending. "If the Republicans had not fought on Obamacare, the compromise would have been over the budget sequester," he wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Thursday.

Via Washington Post

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Leftist Fox Contributor Jehmu Greene Jokes About Drowning Ted Cruz, John Boehner

Viewers of Fox News Channel's popular weeknight Hannity program got an unwelcome surprise during the Tuesday edition of the show, when liberal contributor Jehmu Greene tried to be funny by asking: “If [GOP Texas senator] Ted Cruz and [House majority leader] John Boehner were both on a sinking ship, who would be saved?” Her shocking answer: “America.”

As you might expect, it didn't take long for posters on Twitter to come out swinging.

“Jehmu's mean-spirited joke about drowning just fell flat, even with her Dem colleagues,” @Solameanie stated, while @asskickmchotti noted that the liberal's attempt at comedy was “so effing tacky!”

@CherylRenetteBa referred to “that little joke” as “inappropriate. She is stupid and looks foolish.”
 

Along those lines, @widdawisa said the remark “was rude.” In addition, @RuBEgonia tossed the joke back into the liberal commentator's face: “Your joke went down with the ship.”

@mazzeo_larry responded to the liberal's attempt at comedy by saying:

I had respect for Ms. Greene, but after her joke on Hannity tonight, not so much. Disappointed now.

@RBPundit took the discussion in another direction when he noted that Greene “stole” the gag from Politico's Roger Simon, who wrote a hateful column entitled “Government shutdown unleashes racism.” In that article, Simon asked if his joke was harsh and replied by stating:

Look around you at what is happening to America, and you will see harsh. I am not talking about closed parks and monuments. I am talking about the funds cut to nearly 9 million mothers and young children for food, breastfeeding support and infant formula.

And for what? Because Cruz, Republican senator from Texas, has grown so drunk on the sound of his own voice and so besotted with illusions of his own grandeur that he believes halting government today will propel him into the White House tomorrow.

Of course, the shutdown of 17 percent of the federal government was all “the Republicans' fault" despite the fact that the Democrats control both the Senate and the White House. In addition, it's not uncommon for liberals to first cut off services deemed essential by the voters. Often, the Democrats cry a river over the fact that essential personnel -- usually policemen, teachers and fire fighters -- are laid off while people including the desk jockeys quietly remain on the job.

Meanwhile, Greene attempted to double down on her misfire by also posting on Twitter and admitting she got the joke from the Politico columnist.

“I knew the answer to @jehmu's joke 'cause we've already heard it,” @MitchBehna posted. “But she got mixed up. It's Obama, Pelosi, Biden on the boat.”

Via: Newsbusters

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[VIDEO]DAVID GREGORY CALLS ON GOP SEN. TO EXPLAIN BEN CARSON’S SLAVERY/OBAMACARE COMPARISON: HERE’S HOW THE SENATOR HANDLED IT

Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) was challenged Sunday by ABC News’ David Gregory to defend (or at least explain) Dr. Benjamin Carson’s recent claim that “Obamacare is the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery.”

“Is that an overstatement that’s counterproductive?” Gregory asked.

“Well, he’s a doctor who feels passionately about this issue, obviously, he can speak for himself,” Portman replied.

Gregory wanted more out of Sen. Portman.

“Is that something that, as a senior Republican, is helpful to the debate about Obamacare?” he asked.

“I think what would be helpful is if we sat down and figured out how to make this less damaging to American families and the American economy, because it is a huge problem,” the Ohio senator responded.

The senator then turned his attention to the unmitigated disaster that has been the Obamacare rollout.

You can watch Sen. Portman’s Carson remarks at the 07:45 mark:

Via: The Blaze

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Americans Speaking Out On Gov’t Shutdown: ‘I Think Obama Is Being Kind Of Crappy’

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — The regular book study group at the Rev. Tim Ahrens’ church in middle America always ends with a prayer — most deeply personal, often about a family or friend’s illness. But after one recent meeting, the members held hands in a circle and turned to something far different.

“All they wanted to pray about is the government … and that cooler heads will prevail,” says Ahrens, pastor of the First Congregational United Church of Christ in Columbus, Ohio. “It speaks to the fact that this is deep in the hearts of the people. There’s just a huge concern about the tenor of who we are and how we conduct the business of the country.”

With the government shutdown in its second week and a possible default just days away, many Americans view this epic political clash with frustration, anger and a stoic, here-we-go-again acceptance: They don’t like what they see, don’t agree on who’s to blame and aren’t sure what would be the best solution. But they hope that someone — anyone — comes up with a way out of the mess.

“The bottom line is there’s a logjam that’s ideological and idiotic,” says Ahrens. “What’s happening is awful. What we see is an inability for people to work together and communicate. There’s no excuse for that.”

Via: CBS Charlotte

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Ohio GOP Official: 270 Cases of Voter ‘Fraud or Irregularity’ in 2012, ‘Zero Cases of Suppression’

Jon Husted, Ohio’s secretary of state, appeared on Fox & Friends on Wednesday, where he defended his state’s efforts to ensure the integrity of the voting process. He discussed his efforts to combat voter fraud and revealed that an independent investigation into past elections in his state showed that there were no cases of voter suppression. 

Husted began the interview by detailing his efforts to ensure that service men and women serving abroad have the ability to vote. He then added that his office did their best to ensure that Ohio’s 2012 vote was secure by “cleaning up” the voter rolls and removing deceased or ineligible voters.

RELATED: Wasserman Schultz Highlights GOP Voter Fraud In Response To James O’Keefe Undercover Video

“I would imagine as you try to clean up the voter rolls, you were probably accused of voting suppression at some point, weren’t you?” Steve Doocy asked.

“We always get accused of voter fraud, voter suppression,” he replied. “But instead of it ending on Election Day, I asked all 88 county boards of elections in the state to do a review, top to bottom, of all substantiated claims of fraud and suppression, and what we came up with were around 270 cases of alleged fraud or irregularity. Zero cases of suppression.”

“These are not my numbers,” Husted insisted. “These are the bipartisan boards of election.”

According to a press release from Husted’s office, the “boards of elections have identified and reported 625 cases of voting irregularities statewide.” Ultimately, only 135 of those have been referred to the state, per the press statement:

To date, 135 cases have been referred to law enforcement for further investigation and possible prosecution. This includes 20 individuals Secretary Husted will refer to the Attorney General today who are registered to vote in Ohio and another state, and who appear to have cast ballots in each this past November. These cases were identified as a result of Ohio’s voluntary involvement in the Interstate Crosscheck Program – a consortium of 22 states seeking to improve overall elections integrity.

Watch the clip below via Fox News Channel:

Via: Mediaite.com

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Leader Reid rules out Senate vote on 'Plan B'

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Thursday the Senate will not vote on Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) "Plan B" to extend tax rates for family income below $1 million.

The Democratic leader blasted Boehner for wasting time on "fiscal cliff" legislation that will not see floor time in the upper chamber.

“We are not taking up any of the things that they’re working on over there now,” Reid told reporters. “It’s very, very, very unfortunate the Republicans have wasted an entire week on a number of pointless political stunts.” 

“The bill has no future, if they don’t know it now, tell them what I said,” he added.

Reid said Boehner should schedule a House vote on the Senate-passed bill to extend the Bush-era tax rates for family income below $250,000.  

“The Senate bill is the only one that will be signed into law. We could protect middle-class families tomorrow,” Reid said. “The Speaker refuses to bring our bill to the floor because it would pass.”

Republicans argue the Senate-passed bill is not a solution to the stalemate because it would allow tax rates on inheritances and dividend income to rise dramatically.

Democratic leaders say the GOP plan will not see the light of day in the upper chamber because it raises taxes on middle-class families, does not extend the college tuition tax credit, the earned income tax credit or the child tax credit and includes an “unrealistic proposal” for the estate tax. 

Boehner’s plan would keep the top estate tax rate at 35 percent. It is scheduled to rise to 55 percent without congressional action.

Via: The Hill

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EPA Continues Crackdown On Glass Manufacturing

The Environmental Protection Agency continued its crackdown on the glass manufacturing sector Monday.

The nation’s largest glass-container manufacturer has agreed to spend an estimated $37.5 million on reducing pollutant emissions after reaching a settlement with the EPA and the Department of Justice. The settlement was the fourth to result from EPA’s initiative to regulate glass manufacturers, which began in 2011.

Owens-Brockway Glass Container, headquartered in Perrysburg, Ohio, and a subsidiary of Owens-Illinois (O-I), must also pay a combined $1.45 million to the federal government and the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Equality.

“This agreement will significantly reduce the amount of air pollution, known to cause a variety of environmental and health problems, from the nation’s largest manufacturer of glass containers,” said Ignacia S. Moreno, assistant attorney general for the Environment and Natural Resources Division of the Department of Justice. “The settlement, the latest in a series of agreements with the glass manufacturing sector, addresses major sources of pollution at facilities located in four states and will mean cleaner air for the people living in those communities.”

Via: Daily Caller

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Romney: I’ve Only Written A Victory Speech…

 (CNN) – Hours before the polls closed Tuesday, GOP nominee Mitt Romney told reporters on his plane that he's so confident in a win he's only prepared a victory speech.

"I've only written one speech at this point," Romney said, adding the text of that address was 1,118 words long.

Saying "intellectually" he's felt he was going to win the election for a long time, Romney said his final campaign stops in Ohio and Pittsburgh Tuesday gave him an emotional jolt as well that victory is within his grasp.

As for any campaign regrets, Romney said he had few.

"I'm very proud of the campaign we've run," Romney said, adding that "no campaign is perfect."

"I am very pleased. I feel we have put it all on the field. We left nothing in the locker room," the candidate said.

Via: CNN

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Voter Turnout Up for GOP, Down for Dems, So Far in Ohio ...

According to RNC officials, turnout is up in GOP Geauga County, Ohio where John McCain won with 57% of the vote and down in Athens County, the home of Ohio University and where Obama won with 67% in 2008. Early vote in Geauga? 125% of 2008. Athens? Down 10% from 2008.

SHOT: GOP county turnout up

• Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today
• Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote
• McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04

CHASER: Dem county turnout down

• WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turnout Low
• Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote
• Obama won Athens County with 67%

Via: Fox News

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Middle Cheese: GOP Counties Turned Out for Early Voting

Middle Cheese checks in:

Just a brief report from the Big Cheeses at Team Romney about Ohio early/absentee voting: Obama is under-performing in Kerry-Obama counties, and Republicans are outperforming in McCain 08 counties. As of yesterday, in swing Hamilton County, there are 1,000 fewer Democrat and 800 more GOP early/absentee votes than at this point in 08. Ohio Republicans will turn out. But the key to a Romney victory in OH will be independent voters, who favor Romney by double-digits over Obama in 21 of the last 24 public opinion polls.

Via: National Review Online

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Romney Internal Polling Looks Good

 Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.

Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.

Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years.

Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage. But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.

If the Romney campaign's internal numbers are correct - and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama - then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President.

The most dramatic shift in the Romney campaign's internal polling has been in Wisconsin, which has moved from being eight points down to pulling level. President Barack Obama is campaigning in the state on the eve of election day.

Despite the Obama campaign's insistence that Romney's late decision to contest Pennsylvania is an act of 'desperation', former President Bill Clinton - Obama's most valuable ally on the stump - is holding four eve-of-election events there.

Via: Daily Caller

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Obama’s EPA Planning To Crush Coal Industry With Avalanche Of New Regulations After Election…

President Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency has devoted an unprecedented number of bureaucrats to finalizing new anti-coal regulations that are set to be released at the end of November, according to a source inside the EPA.

More than 50 EPA staff are now crashing to finish greenhouse gas emission standards that would essentially ban all construction of new coal-fired power plants. Never before have so many EPA resources been devoted to a single regulation. The independent and non-partisan Manhattan Institute estimates that the EPA’s greenhouse gas coal regulation will cost the U.S. economy $700 billion.

The rush is a major sign of panic by environmentalists inside the Obama administration. If Obama wins, the EPA would have another four full years to implement their anti-fossil fuel agenda. But if Romney wins, regulators will have a very narrow window to enact a select few costly regulations that would then be very hard for a President Romney to undo.

Environmentalists at the EPA pulled this trick before in 2000 when the Clinton administration rushed out a finding that Mercury emissions from power plants were a growing public health threat pursuant to the Clean Air Act. That finding did not regulate power plants itself, but it did force the Bush administration to begin a lengthy regulatory process. The Obama EPA has estimated that this regulation alone will cost the U.S. economy $10.9 billion a year.

Reached for comment, Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said:

President Obama won’t tell the voters of the Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania the truth about his plans to shut down the coal industry. Even after he loses on Tuesday, it appears that the President will still try to continue his efforts to kill their jobs and drive up their energy prices. Mitt Romney is committed to reversing the damage caused by the Obama Administration’s disastrous liberal agenda as soon as he takes office.

Via: Washington Examiner

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Sunday November 4, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.

These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.

If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). 

Just over one-out-of-four Americans (27%) say the upcoming election has negatively affected their personal relationship with a friend or family member.

The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado,   Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin.



Via: Rasmussen Reports

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USA Today: Obama 'Revenge' Comment Roils Campaign'

3:08PM EDT November 3. 2012 - CLEVELAND -- The new campaign buzzword: Revenge.

As Republican challenger Mitt Romney makes much of President Obama's comment in a Friday speech that "voting is the best revenge," Obama aides say the comment reflects Romney "scare tactics."

Obama made the comment as part of a familiar speech riff; when audience members boo the mention of Romney's name, the president habitually says, "don't boo -- vote"

On Friday in Springfield, Ohio, Obama added the phrase: "Voting is the best revenge."

Asked about the comment, Obama campaign spokesperson Jen Psaki said Obama made the comment in the context that Romney is "closing his campaign with an ad full of scare tactics that's frightening workers in Ohio and thinking falsely that they're not going to have a job."

On the stump, Romney has said, "vote for love of country, not revenge."

Via: USA Today

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Ohio Union Goons Charged With Stealing Romney Yard Signs…

Perrysburg police today issued misdemeanor citations to four men for allegedly being in possession of stolen political signs.

Those charged with receiving stolen property included John Russell, 39, of Toledo, and Chris Monaghan 41, of Rossford, who are both listed on the Sheet Metal Workers Local 33 Web site as business agents for the union’s Toledo district.

The men were in a pickup truck registered to Local 33 in Parma, Ohio, police said.

Also cited were Corey J. Beaubien, 37, and Sean Bresler, 33, both of Toledo.

A Tea Party Web site reported Friday the truck was loaded with the campaign signs of GOP Presidential nominee Mitt Romney and running mate Paul Ryan. Perrysburg police did not confirm that, but a police incident report said that the summonses were issued about 12:30 a.m. in the 11100 block of Fremont Pike “after several reports were taken of political signs being stolen in the city of Perrysburg.”

Via: Toledo Blade

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From 'hope' and 'change' to 'revenge'

Going off teleprompter yesterday, President Obama let the mask slip and revealed the ugliness at the heart of his political mission. Amie Parnes of the Hill:

President Obama called voting "the best revenge" on Friday at a rally in Ohio.

The line was a twist on Obama's usual "don't boo, vote" line that the president uses when crowds at this rallies boo Republican nominee Mitt Romney's name.

"No, no, no, Don't boo. Vote," Obama told a crowd in Springfield, Ohio. "Voting is the best revenge."

The media spinners will tell us that this is just a play on the old saying, "Living well is the best revenge," but in fact it reveals a disturbing consistency in the off-teleprompter comments of the president. Recall that he insisted a hike in the capital gains tax would be just, even if it resulted in less revenue. That is revenge against the successful.

Recall his Roanoke Doctrine: "You didn't build that!" The implication is that those who claim the credit (and reward) for building a business, do not deserve them, and that others deserve the fruits of their effort - a form of revenge.

Recall his comment four years ago to Joe the Plumber about spreading the money around. Once again, revenge against those who have earned more than others.

But what else would you expect from a man born to an anticolonialist, Marxist father and a mother who fled the United States to live overseas? What else from a man mentored by a communist, Frank Marshall Davis?  

What else from a man who passionately argued for violent revolution in college?

Via: American Thinker

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Goon Squad: AFL-CIO Chief Trumka Promises More Than 2,000 Union “Poll Monitors” In Battleground States…

(CNSNews.com) - Setting the scene for possible post-election legal challenges, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said his unions plan to deploy 2,000 “poll monitors” who will be linked with lawyers around the country as a way to prevent
"voter suppression" in states such as Ohio.

During a media conference call on Thursday, Trumka recalled being at an early voting site in Las Vegas where he saw “challengers inside.”

“We’re going to have over 2,000 people that are going to be available as poll monitors that’ll be connected to a number of lawyers around the country. So that if they [the opposition] attempt to deny them the right to vote, or hassle them we’ll be able to have a rapid response team that will respond immediately to that and protect them,” Trumka said.

“That will be up in the core states like Ohio, where we think there could be problems and so we’ll challenge those everywhere we can and protect the votes,” he said.

Via: CNS News

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Republican National Committee alleges voting machine troubles in Nevada, other swing states

Secretary of State Ross Miller called claims of voter machine irregularities in Nevada by the Republican National Committee “irresponsible and unfortunate” on Thursday.

Miller, a Democrat, was responding to a letter sent to his office and election officials in five other states on Thursday in which the RNC alleged voting machines cast ballots for President Barack Obama, a Democrat, when the vote was intended for his Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The RNC did not provide documented proof of its allegation aside from media anecdotes.

In Washoe County, a man reported a problem with a voting machine in which he tried to vote for Obama but the machine kept registering a vote for Romney. The machine was recalibrated by election officials.

Miller responded in a letter sent to the RNC on Thursday that said unsubstantiated allegations of voting machine problems based on rumor, media reports and hearsay, “undermine the public’s confidence in the electoral process.”

The RNC letter expressed concerns that the voting machine problems were the result of “miscalibration and hyper-sensitivity of the machines.” Letters were sent to officials in Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Kansas and Missouri.

The RNC asked officials to recalibrate voting machines on Election Day and instruct poll workers to remind voters to double-check their votes.

Eric Herzik, the chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the RNC needs to “put up or shut up.”

Via: RGJ.com

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Rove Op-Ed: Romney Will Be Our 45th President

Excerpt from Karl Rove's Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, "Sifting the Numbers for a Winner," 11/01/12: But doesn't it all come down to the all-important Buckeye State? Here, too, the early voting news isn't encouraging for the president.

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama's 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the America Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP "millennials" (voters aged 18-29) who've voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party's early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections. Democrats also suggest they are bringing Obama-leaning independents to polls. But since Mr. Romney has led among independents in nine of the 13 Ohio polls conducted since the first debate, the likelihood is that the GOP is doing as good a job in turning out their independent supporters as Democrats are in turning out theirs.

Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.

In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

Via: WSJ

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